Aberystwyth Town vs llanelli AFC Result & Analysis

Date: 31/08/2026

Time: 13:30

Final 4-0

Aberystwyth Town

48%

27%

25%

■ Home ■ Draw ■ Away

llanelli AFC

Wales: FAW Championship

Referee: -

1 Model Analysis 2 Goal Analysis 3 Team Strengths Analysis 4 Props Analysis 5 Double Chance 6 Home & Away Over/Under 7 Handicap 8 Half Time Goals O/U 9 Half Time Home & Away O/U 10 Second Half Goals O/U 11 Second Half Home & Away O/U

12 Top picks for this game 14 Squad value 15 Games History 16 Overall Statistics 17 League Table

Match preview & prediction

Aberystwyth Town’s recent 2-game winning streak fuels confidence at home, while llanelli AFC returns from a draw and a 2-2 stalemate. The model favours a home win, assigning 48% to Aberystwyth, 27% to a draw, and 25% to llanelli. The expected total is 2.8 goals, with the most probable total of 2 goals at 25%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.6% chance, reflecting the balanced scoring and conceding figures: Aberystwyth average 1.85 goals for and 1.46 against at home against stronger opposition, while llanelli’s away form shows modest output.

Suggested picks span a range of over/under and half-time selections. Under 7.5 goals is nearly certain at 99.2%. The model also highlights a strong edge on Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.9% with a 6% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.0%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (96.7% with a 5% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (96.3% with an 11% edge), Under 6.5 (97.5%), Under 5.5 (93.3% with a 10% edge), and Home under 3.5 goals (91.2% with an 18% edge). These selections underline the model’s belief in a low-scoring, home-side dominated affair.

Results analysis

The win extends Aberystwyth Town’s three-game winning run, ending the match 4-0 and confirming the model’s pick of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was assigned a 48% probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.2%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.9%, Under 6.5 hit at 97.5%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 96.3%, Under 5.5 hit at 93.3%, while Home under 3.5 goals missed at 91.2%. The final score of 4-0 matched the actual result of a home win.

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Aberystwyth Town win✓ Hit

48.0%

Avg Implied 68.3% · @ 1.32

Edge

-20.3%

Best 5 market prices

Bet365

1.36

Betano

1.36

Dafabet

1.34

Superbet

1.33

10Bet

1.33

Draw✗ Miss

26.6%

Avg Implied 18.4% · @ 4.90

Edge

+8.1%

Best 5 market prices

Dafabet

5.20

Pinnacle

5.13

1xBet

5.00

Marathonbet

5.00

Superbet

5.00

llanelli AFC win✗ Miss

25.4%

Avg Implied 13.2% · @ 6.84

Edge

+12.2%

Best 5 market prices

1xBet

7.55

Marathonbet

7.30

Dafabet

7.20

Betfair

7.00

William Hil

7.00

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aberystwyth Town

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.1

Avg scored

1.8

Avg conceded

1.3

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	1.43	1.50	1.56	1.50	1.29	1.50
vs Stronger (23)	1.74	1.39	1.85	1.46	1.60	1.30
vs Similar (5)	0.40	2.40	0.50	2.00	0.33	2.67
vs Weaker (2)	0.50	0.50	0.00	1.00	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	30% (+8pp vs league)

This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFC

Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

3.9

Avg scored

0.9

Avg conceded

3.0

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.70	2.50	0.75	2.25	0.64	2.79
vs Stronger (4)	1.25	2.75	1.00	2.33	2.00	4.00
vs Similar (25)	0.60	2.40	0.67	2.08	0.54	2.69
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	4.00	1.00	4.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	10% (-12pp vs league)

This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

The model estimates around 2.8 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (25%).

Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

78.3%

@ 1.10-4.5%

Under 1.5

21.7%

@ 5.30+4.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.11

Superbet

1.09

Under

1xBet

5.50

Superbet

5.10

Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

53.5%

@ 1.41-11.6%

Under 2.5

46.5%

@ 2.62+11.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Bet365

1.44

Pinnacle

1.41

Superbet

1.40

Marathonbet

1.39

1xBet

1.39

Under

Pinnacle

2.68

Bet365

2.62

Superbet

2.60

Marathonbet

2.59

1xBet

2.59

Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over

Over 3.5

31.2%

@ 2.03-14.0%

Under 3.5

68.8%

@ 1.67+14.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.09

Marathonbet

2.06

1xBet

2.06

Superbet

2.05

10Bet

1.95

Under

Pinnacle

1.68

Superbet

1.68

Betano

1.67

Marathonbet

1.67

1xBet

1.67

Both teams to scoreActual: No

Yes

56.7%

@ 1.65+1.0%

43.3%

@ 2.07-1.0%

Best 5 market prices

Yes

Superbet

1.67

1xBet

1.65

Marathonbet

1.65

William Hil

1.62

William Hil

2.10

Superbet

2.07

1xBet

2.07

Marathonbet

2.03

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).

1-1

12.6%@ 9.20+8.1%

2-1

9.5%@ 7.70+4.1%

1-0

8.8%@ 8.90+4.1%

2-0

8.3%@ 7.40+2.6%

0-0

7.1%@ 18.60+4.9%

1-2

6.6%@ 19.00+4.4%

0-1

5.8%@ 21.80+3.8%

2-2

5.5%@ 14.20+2.6%

Aberystwyth Town goals ↓

	llanelli AFC goals →
	0	1	2	3	4
0	7.1%	5.8%	4.0%	1.5%	0.4%
1	8.8%	13%	6.6%	2.6%	0.7%
2	8.3%	9.5%	5.5%	2.1%	0.6%
3	4.6%	5.3%	3.1%	1.2%	0.3%
4	1.9%	2.2%	1.3%	0.5%	0.1%

Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Aberystwyth Town goals (down), columns = llanelli AFC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game

Swansea University

2.60

Pontypridd Town

2.60

Newtown AFC

2.60

Brickfield Rangers

2.50

Bala Town

2.40

Aberystwyth Town

2.40

Mold Alexandra

2.17

Bangor City 1876 FC

2.00

Caersws

2.00

Porthmadog

1.83

Treowen Stars

1.80

Carmarthen Town

1.67

Baglan Dragons

1.67

Ynyshir Albions

1.60

Guilsfield

1.50

Rhyl

1.40

Caerphilly Athletic

1.40

Trethomas Bluebirds

1.33

Llanuwchllyn

1.20

Newport City

1.20

Afan Lido

1.17

Caerau (Ely)

1.17

Cardiff Draconians

1.00

Holyhead Hotspur

0.80

Ruthin Town

0.67

Buckley Town

0.67

Denbigh Town

0.67

Pontardawe Town

0.60

llanelli AFC

0.33

Penrhyncoch

0.20

Llantwit Major

0.00

Gresford Athletic

0.00

Aberystwyth Town is 2.07 points better than llanelli AFC in terms of average points per game (2.40 vs 0.33).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game

Swansea University

3.60

Pontypridd Town

3.20

Aberystwyth Town

3.20

Brickfield Rangers

2.83

Newtown AFC

2.80

Treowen Stars

2.60

Carmarthen Town

2.50

Bangor City 1876 FC

2.33

Caerau (Ely)

2.17

Bala Town

2.00

Trethomas Bluebirds

2.00

Mold Alexandra

2.00

Guilsfield

2.00

Caersws

2.00

Afan Lido

1.83

Porthmadog

1.83

Denbigh Town

1.83

Rhyl

1.80

Newport City

1.80

Holyhead Hotspur

1.40

Cardiff Draconians

1.25

Buckley Town

1.17

llanelli AFC

1.00

Llanuwchllyn

1.00

Pontardawe Town

1.00

Ruthin Town

1.00

Baglan Dragons

0.83

Ynyshir Albions

0.80

Penrhyncoch

0.60

Caerphilly Athletic

0.60

Llantwit Major

0.25

Gresford Athletic

0.00

Aberystwyth Town is 2.20 goals better than llanelli AFC in terms of goals scored per game (3.20 vs 1.00).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better

Newtown AFC

0.20

Ynyshir Albions

0.60

Brickfield Rangers

0.67

Bala Town

0.80

Baglan Dragons

0.83

Swansea University

1.00

Mold Alexandra

1.00

Aberystwyth Town

1.00

Newport City

1.00

Bangor City 1876 FC

1.33

Caerphilly Athletic

1.40

Caersws

1.40

Porthmadog

1.50

Guilsfield

1.50

Rhyl

1.60

Cardiff Draconians

1.75

Treowen Stars

1.80

Holyhead Hotspur

1.80

Pontardawe Town

1.80

Trethomas Bluebirds

1.83

Buckley Town

1.83

Pontypridd Town

2.00

Afan Lido

2.17

Ruthin Town

2.17

Carmarthen Town

2.33

Denbigh Town

2.33

Gresford Athletic

2.80

Caerau (Ely)

2.83

llanelli AFC

3.00

Llanuwchllyn

3.00

Penrhyncoch

3.20

Llantwit Major

3.50

Aberystwyth Town is 2.00 goals better than llanelli AFC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.00 vs 3.00).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.

Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

Aberystwyth Town or Draw✓ Hit

74.6%

Avg Implied 86.7% · @ 1.06

Edge

-12.1%

48%

27%

25%

covers Aberystwyth Town + Draw

Best 5 market prices

Betano

1.11

Bet365

1.08

William Hil

1.07

Betfair

1.07

Superbet

1.06

Aberystwyth Town or llanelli AFC✓ Hit

73.4%

Avg Implied 81.9% · @ 1.12

Edge

-8.5%

48%

27%

25%

covers Aberystwyth Town + llanelli AFC

Best 5 market prices

William Hil

1.15

Betano

1.15

Betfair

1.13

Bet365

1.12

Superbet

1.12

Draw or llanelli AFC✗ Miss

52.0%

Avg Implied 31.4% · @ 2.93

Edge

+20.6%

48%

27%

25%

covers Draw + llanelli AFC

Best 5 market prices

Betfair

3.20

10Bet

3.00

William Hil

3.00

1xBet

2.97

Marathonbet

2.97

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.

Aberystwyth Town over/under 0.5Actual: Over

Over

81.0%

@ 1.03-9.2%

Under

19.0%

@ 9.50+9.2%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.03

Under

1xBet

9.50

Aberystwyth Town over/under 1.5Actual: Over

Over

49.5%

@ 1.35-18.3%

Under

50.5%

@ 2.84+18.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.38

Marathonbet

1.36

Superbet

1.31

Under

Superbet

2.92

Marathonbet

2.80

1xBet

2.80

Aberystwyth Town over/under 2.5Actual: Over

Over

23.3%

@ 2.05-21.9%

Under

76.7%

@ 1.69+21.9%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Pinnacle

2.08

1xBet

2.07

Marathonbet

2.02

Superbet

2.02

Under

Superbet

1.70

Pinnacle

1.70

Marathonbet

1.69

1xBet

1.67

Aberystwyth Town over/under 3.5Actual: Over

Over

8.8%

@ 3.48-17.5%

Under

91.2%

@ 1.24+17.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

3.55

Superbet

3.40

Under

1xBet

1.25

Superbet

1.23

llanelli AFC over/under 0.5Actual: Under

Over

68.5%

@ 1.57+9.5%

Under

31.5%

@ 2.26-9.5%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.63

Pinnacle

1.56

Superbet

1.53

Under

Pinnacle

2.34

Superbet

2.30

1xBet

2.15

llanelli AFC over/under 1.5Actual: Under

Over

32.1%

@ 3.57+6.6%

Under

67.9%

@ 1.22-6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

3.66

Marathonbet

3.66

Superbet

3.40

Under

Superbet

1.23

Marathonbet

1.22

1xBet

1.22

llanelli AFC over/under 2.5Actual: Under

Over

11.1%

@ 7.90-0.4%

Under

88.9%

@ 1.02+0.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

8.20

1xBet

7.60

Under

1xBet

1.04

Superbet

1.01

llanelli AFC over/under 3.5Actual: Under

Over

3.0%

Under

97.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

No market prices yet.

Under

No market prices yet.

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

The handicap is applied to Aberystwyth Town, so a minus line means Aberystwyth Town give that many goals of a start and llanelli AFC receive them. At -1, Aberystwyth Town must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Aberystwyth Town win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.

Handicap -2 (Aberystwyth Town)Actual: Aberystwyth Town

Aberystwyth Town -2

11.2%

@ 3.04-18.1%

Draw -2

15.0%

@ 4.20-6.2%

llanelli AFC +2

73.9%

@ 1.80+24.4%

Best 5 market prices

Home

Marathonbet

3.04

Draw

Marathonbet

4.20

Away

Marathonbet

1.80

Handicap -1 (Aberystwyth Town)Actual: Aberystwyth Town

Aberystwyth Town -1

26.1%

@ 1.87-21.1%

Draw -1

21.9%

@ 3.75-1.7%

llanelli AFC +1

52.0%

@ 3.02+22.7%

Best 5 market prices

Home

10Bet

1.91

Marathonbet

1.88

Betfair

1.83

Draw

Marathonbet

3.75

Betfair

3.75

10Bet

3.75

Away

Betfair

3.10

10Bet

3.00

Marathonbet

2.97

Handicap +1 (Aberystwyth Town)Actual: Aberystwyth Town

Aberystwyth Town +1

74.6%

Draw +1

14.9%

llanelli AFC -1

10.5%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

Handicap +2 (Aberystwyth Town)Actual: Aberystwyth Town

Aberystwyth Town +2

89.5%

Draw +2

7.2%

llanelli AFC -2

3.2%

Best 5 market prices

Home

No market prices yet.

Draw

No market prices yet.

Away

No market prices yet.

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aberystwyth Town

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.2

Avg scored

0.7

Avg conceded

0.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.47	0.50	0.69	0.56	0.21	0.43
vs Stronger (23)	0.52	0.43	0.77	0.54	0.20	0.30
vs Similar (5)	0.40	0.80	0.50	0.50	0.33	1.00
vs Weaker (2)	0.00	0.50	0.00	1.00	0.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	57% (+35pp vs league)

This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

2.1

Avg scored

0.6

Avg conceded

1.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.50	1.13	0.56	0.94	0.43	1.36
vs Stronger (4)	1.00	1.25	1.00	0.67	1.00	3.00
vs Similar (25)	0.40	1.04	0.42	0.83	0.38	1.23
vs Weaker (1)	1.00	3.00	1.00	3.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	33% (+11pp vs league)

This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

70.0%

@ 1.19-7.4%

Under 0.5

30.0%

@ 4.08+7.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

William Hil

1.22

1xBet

1.19

Superbet

1.18

Betfair

1.17

Under

Betfair

4.50

1xBet

4.20

Superbet

3.80

William Hil

3.80

Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under

Over 1.5

33.8%

@ 2.02-11.4%

Under 1.5

66.2%

@ 1.67+11.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.08

Marathonbet

2.08

Pinnacle

2.07

William Hil

2.05

Superbet

2.00

Under

Betfair

1.73

Superbet

1.71

Pinnacle

1.68

10Bet

1.67

William Hil

1.67

Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under

Over 2.5

13.9%

@ 4.20-8.0%

Under 2.5

86.1%

@ 1.18+8.0%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Betfair

4.50

William Hil

4.40

1xBet

4.00

Superbet

3.90

Under

1xBet

1.19

Betfair

1.17

Superbet

1.17

William Hil

1.17

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.

Aberystwyth Town over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over

Over

52.2%

@ 1.37-14.1%

Under

47.8%

@ 2.70+14.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.37

Superbet

1.37

Under

1xBet

2.70

Superbet

2.70

Aberystwyth Town over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

14.9%

@ 2.74-18.3%

Under

85.1%

@ 1.36+18.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.74

Under

1xBet

1.36

Aberystwyth Town over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

3.7%

@ 6.50-10.6%

Under

96.3%

@ 1.08+10.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.50

Under

1xBet

1.08

llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under

Over

37.4%

@ 2.58+2.1%

Under

62.6%

@ 1.41-2.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.60

1xBet

2.55

Under

1xBet

1.41

Superbet

1.40

llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under

Over

9.6%

@ 8.45-1.4%

Under

90.4%

@ 1.04+1.4%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

8.45

Under

1xBet

1.04

llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under

Over

3.3%

@ 11.00-5.1%

Under

96.7%

@ 1.01+5.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

11.00

Under

1xBet

1.01

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aberystwyth Town

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.9

Avg scored

1.1

Avg conceded

0.8

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.97	1.00	0.88	0.94	1.07	1.07
vs Stronger (23)	1.22	0.96	1.08	0.92	1.40	1.00
vs Similar (5)	0.00	1.60	0.00	1.50	0.00	1.67
vs Weaker (2)	0.50	0.00	0.00	0.00	1.00	0.00
Clean sheet %	40% (+18pp vs league)

This opponent (llanelli AFC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

llanelli AFC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against

Avg total

1.8

Avg scored

0.3

Avg conceded

1.5

Split	Total Scored	Total Conceded	Home Scored	Home Conceded	Away Scored	Away Conceded
Avg goals/game	0.20	1.37	0.19	1.31	0.21	1.43
vs Stronger (4)	0.25	1.50	0.00	1.67	1.00	1.00
vs Similar (25)	0.20	1.36	0.25	1.25	0.15	1.46
vs Weaker (1)	0.00	1.00	0.00	1.00	-	-
Clean sheet %	17% (-5pp vs league)

This opponent (Aberystwyth Town) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over

Over 0.5

81.2%

@ 1.10-1.7%

Under 0.5

18.8%

@ 5.35+1.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.10

Superbet

1.10

Under

1xBet

5.80

Superbet

4.90

Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over

Over 1.5

49.9%

@ 1.63-6.6%

Under 1.5

50.1%

@ 2.11+6.6%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Marathonbet

1.63

Superbet

1.63

1xBet

1.63

Under

Superbet

2.12

Marathonbet

2.11

1xBet

2.11

Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over

Over 2.5

20.9%

@ 2.80-11.7%

Under 2.5

79.1%

@ 1.35+11.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

Superbet

2.85

Marathonbet

2.79

1xBet

2.75

Under

1xBet

1.38

Marathonbet

1.35

Superbet

1.33

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.

Aberystwyth Town over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over

Over

60.1%

@ 1.28-11.7%

Under

39.9%

@ 3.25+11.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

1.28

Under

1xBet

3.25

Aberystwyth Town over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over

Over

23.3%

@ 2.27-17.1%

Under

76.7%

@ 1.54+17.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.29

Superbet

2.25

Under

Superbet

1.55

1xBet

1.53

Aberystwyth Town over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over

Over

11.1%

@ 4.85-7.8%

Under

88.9%

@ 1.13+7.8%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

4.85

Under

1xBet

1.13

llanelli AFC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under

Over

45.6%

@ 2.21+4.1%

Under

54.4%

@ 1.57-4.1%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

2.22

Superbet

2.20

Under

Superbet

1.58

1xBet

1.56

llanelli AFC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under

Over

14.2%

@ 6.85+0.7%

Under

85.8%

@ 1.07-0.7%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

6.85

Under

1xBet

1.07

llanelli AFC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under

Over

2.1%

@ 11.00-6.3%

Under

97.9%

@ 1.01+6.3%

Best 5 market prices

Over

1xBet

11.00

Under

1xBet

1.01

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.

Min odds1.20

Edge

Pick	Probability	Avg odds	Best 1	Best 2	Best 3	Best 4	Best 5	Edge	Result
Under 7.5	99.2%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals	97.9%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+6.3%	✓ Hit
Under 6.5	97.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals	97.0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals	96.7%	1.01	1xBet 1.01	-	-	-	-	+5.1%	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals	96.3%	1.08	1xBet 1.08	-	-	-	-	+10.6%	✓ Hit
Under 5.5	93.3%	1.09	1xBet 1.10	Superbet 1.08	-	-	-	+9.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals	91.2%	1.24	1xBet 1.25	Superbet 1.23	-	-	-	+17.5%	✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals	90.4%	1.04	1xBet 1.04	-	-	-	-	+1.4%	✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap	89.5%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals	88.9%	1.13	1xBet 1.13	-	-	-	-	+7.8%	✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals	88.9%	1.02	1xBet 1.04	Superbet 1.01	-	-	-	+0.4%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals	86.1%	1.18	1xBet 1.19	Betfair 1.17	Superbet 1.17	William Hil 1.17	-	+8.0%	✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals	85.8%	1.07	1xBet 1.07	-	-	-	-	-0.7%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals	85.1%	1.36	1xBet 1.36	-	-	-	-	+18.3%	✓ Hit
Under 4.5	84.5%	1.25	Superbet 1.26	Marathonbet 1.25	1xBet 1.25	-	-	+12.3%	✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals	81.2%	1.10	1xBet 1.10	Superbet 1.10	-	-	-	-1.7%	✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals	81.0%	1.03	1xBet 1.03	-	-	-	-	-9.2%	✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals	79.1%	1.35	1xBet 1.38	Marathonbet 1.35	Superbet 1.33	-	-	+11.7%	✗ Miss
Over 1.5	78.3%	1.10	1xBet 1.11	Superbet 1.09	-	-	-	-4.5%	✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals	76.7%	1.54	Superbet 1.55	1xBet 1.53	-	-	-	+17.1%	✗ Miss
Home or Draw	74.6%	1.06	Betano 1.11	Bet365 1.08	William Hil 1.07	Betfair 1.07	Superbet 1.06	-12.1%	✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap	74.6%	-	-	-	-	-	-	-	✓ Hit
Home or Away	73.4%	1.12	William Hil 1.15	Betano 1.15	Betfair 1.13	Bet365 1.12	Superbet 1.12	-8.5%	✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BT (12)

€1m

NC (4)

€0m

AT (2)

€0m

RHY (1)

€0m

LA (2)

€0m

Aberystwyth Town and llanelli AFC have a similar squad value (both €0m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BT (4)

€0m

RHY (1)

€0m

AT (1)

€0m

NC (2)

€0m

LA (0)

€0m

Aberystwyth Town and llanelli AFC have a similar attack value (both €0m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BT (2)

€0m

LA (2)

€0m

RHY (0)

€0m

AT (0)

€0m

NC (0)

€0m

Aberystwyth Town and llanelli AFC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)

BT (6)

€0m

NC (2)

€0m

AT (1)

€0m

LA (0)

€0m

RHY (0)

€0m

Aberystwyth Town and llanelli AFC have a similar defence value (both €0m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

No previous meetings

AT wins

Draws

LA wins

Head-to-head

Aberystwyth Town vs llanelli AFC · H/A from AT

Date	H/A	Game	Score
No games.

Aberystwyth Town

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	H	AT Vs Pontardawe Town	1-0
22/08/26	H	AT Vs Llantwit Major	5-1
08/08/26	H	AT Vs Treowen Stars	1-2
01/08/26	A	Afan Lido Vs AT	2-5
18/04/26	A	Ynyshir Albions Vs AT	0-0
11/04/26	A	Cwmbran Celtic Vs AT	3-1
04/04/26	H	AT Vs Llantwit Major	2-2
28/03/26	H	AT Vs Afan Lido	0-1
21/03/26	A	Cambrian & Clydach Vs AT	2-0
14/03/26	H	AT Vs Trethomas Bluebirds	3-0

llanelli AFC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result

Date	H/A	Game	Score
28/08/26	H	LA Vs Carmarthen Town	2-2
22/08/26	A	Cardiff Draconians Vs LA	4-2
15/08/26	A	Swansea University Vs LA	3-0
07/08/26	H	LA Vs Trethomas Bluebirds	1-1
31/07/26	H	LA Vs Newport City	1-4
18/04/26	A	Haverfordwest County AFC Vs LA	6-0
03/04/26	H	LA Vs Bala Town	0-5
28/03/26	A	Flint Town United Vs LA	1-2
20/03/26	H	LA Vs Cardiff MET	1-2
13/03/26	H	LA Vs Briton Ferry	0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Aberystwyth Town

Wales: FAW Championship

Recent: 4 Wins / 2 Draws / 4 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	DWLWW	1.28
Home	LDLWW	1.22
Away	LLLDW	1.35

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	38%	33%	43%
AVG goals	2.76	2.70	2.83
Over 1.5 %	68%	70%	65%
Over 2.5 %	56%	56%	57%
Over 3.5 %	32%	30%	35%
Scored	1.22	1.26	1.17
Conceded	1.54	1.44	1.65
BTTS	46%	48%	43%
Clean Sheet	24%	26%	22%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

llanelli AFC

Wales: FAW Championship

Recent: 1 Wins / 2 Draws / 7 Losses

Form	Results	PPG
Overall	LDLLD	0.78
Home	LLLDD	0.69
Away	DWLLL	0.88

Stats	Overall	Home	Away
Win %	20%	15%	25%
AVG goals	3.12	2.85	3.42
Over 1.5 %	80%	77%	83%
Over 2.5 %	60%	50%	71%
Over 3.5 %	36%	35%	38%
Scored	0.88	0.85	0.92
Conceded	2.24	2.00	2.50
BTTS	48%	42%	54%
Clean Sheet	14%	15%	12%
Corners	-	-	-
Cards	-	-	-

🏆 17. League Table

Record						Goals							Props / game						Squad value €m				Strengths
Rank	Team	MP	Pts	Win%	PPG	GF	GA	GD	G/G	O1.5	O2.5	O3.5	Cor	Cor O%	Crd	Crd O%	Fls	Fls O%	Tot	Att	Mid	Def	Att/g	Def/g	Poss%
1	Brickfield Rangers	6	15	83%	2.5	17	4	+13	3.5	100%	67%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	0.7	-
2	Swansea University	5	13	80%	2.6	18	5	+13	4.6	100%	100%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.6	1.0	-
3	Newtown AFC	5	13	80%	2.6	14	1	+13	3.0	80%	60%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.8	0.2	-
4	Pontypridd Town	5	13	80%	2.6	16	10	+6	5.2	100%	100%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.2	2.0	-
5	Mold Alexandra	6	13	67%	2.2	12	6	+6	3.0	67%	67%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.0	-
6	Aberystwyth Town	5	12	80%	2.4	16	5	+11	4.2	80%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	3.2	1.0	-
7	Bangor City 1876 FC	6	12	67%	2.0	14	8	+6	3.7	100%	100%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.3	1.3	-
8	Bala Town	5	12	80%	2.4	10	4	+6	2.8	80%	80%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	1	0	0	0	2.0	0.8	-
9	Porthmadog	6	11	50%	1.8	11	9	+2	3.3	83%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.5	-
10	Caersws	5	10	60%	2.0	10	7	+3	3.4	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.4	-
11	Carmarthen Town	6	10	50%	1.7	15	14	+1	4.8	100%	100%	83%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.5	2.3	-
12	Baglan Dragons	6	10	50%	1.7	5	5	+0	1.7	33%	33%	17%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	0.8	-
13	Treowen Stars	5	9	60%	1.8	13	9	+4	4.4	100%	100%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.6	1.8	-
14	Guilsfield	6	9	33%	1.5	12	9	+3	3.5	100%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.5	-
15	Trethomas Bluebirds	6	8	33%	1.3	12	11	+1	3.8	83%	67%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.0	1.8	-
16	Ynyshir Albions	5	8	40%	1.6	4	3	+1	1.4	40%	20%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.8	0.6	-
17	Rhyl	5	7	40%	1.4	9	8	+1	3.4	80%	60%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.6	-
18	Afan Lido	6	7	33%	1.2	11	13	-2	4.0	67%	67%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	2.2	-
19	Caerau (Ely)	6	7	33%	1.2	13	17	-4	5.0	100%	83%	83%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	2.2	2.8	-
20	Caerphilly Athletic	5	7	40%	1.4	3	7	-4	2.0	60%	60%	0%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	1.4	-
21	Newport City	5	6	40%	1.2	9	5	+4	2.8	60%	60%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	1.0	-
22	Llanuwchllyn	5	6	40%	1.2	5	15	-10	4.0	100%	80%	60%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.0	-
23	Holyhead Hotspur	5	4	20%	0.8	7	9	-2	3.2	80%	80%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.4	1.8	-
24	Cardiff Draconians	4	4	25%	1.0	5	7	-2	3.0	50%	50%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.8	-
25	Denbigh Town	6	4	17%	0.7	11	14	-3	4.2	100%	100%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.8	2.3	-
26	Buckley Town	6	4	17%	0.7	7	11	-4	3.0	83%	50%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.2	1.8	-
27	Ruthin Town	6	4	17%	0.7	6	13	-7	3.2	100%	83%	33%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	2.2	-
28	Pontardawe Town	5	3	20%	0.6	5	9	-4	2.8	60%	60%	40%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	1.8	-
29	llanelli AFC	6	2	0%	0.3	6	18	-12	4.0	100%	83%	67%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	1.0	3.0	-
30	Penrhyncoch	5	1	0%	0.2	3	16	-13	3.8	100%	80%	80%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.6	3.2	-
31	Llantwit Major	4	0	0%	0.0	1	14	-13	3.8	75%	75%	50%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.2	3.5	-
32	Gresford Athletic	5	0	0%	0.0	0	14	-14	2.8	80%	60%	20%	-	0%	-	0%	-	0%	0	0	0	0	0.0	2.8	-

Wales: FAW Championship 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Wales: FAW Championship stats & trends →

← all matches

Aberystwyth Town vs llanelli AFC Result & Analysis

🎯 1. Model Analysis

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

Aberystwyth Town

llanelli AFC

Total goals distribution

Correct score

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

⚔️ Attack

🛡️ Defense

⏱️ Possession

🎲 4. Props Analysis

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

Aberystwyth Town

llanelli AFC

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

Aberystwyth Town

llanelli AFC

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

⚔️ Attack

🧠 Midfield

🛡️ Defence

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

Head-to-head

Aberystwyth Town

llanelli AFC

📊 16. Overall Statistics

🏆 17. League Table

A Pro feature