Aberystwyth Town’s recent home form shows a solid attack, averaging 1.85 goals per match, yet they concede 1.46 against stronger opposition. Swansea University, playing away, has been prolific, scoring 2.33 on average against weaker teams while conceding 1.67. The model projects a high-scoring affair, with an expected 3.3 goals and a most likely total of 3, a 22% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.7% probability. The model favours an away win, with a 50% chance, while home and draw chances sit at 26% and 24% respectively. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98%), Home under 3.5 goals (95%), Under 6.5 (94.8%), Away +2 handicap (88.2%), Under 5.5 (88.2%), Away under 3.5 goals (86.8%), Away over 0.5 goals (85.6%) and Over 1.5 (85.2%). The match is poised for a balanced contest with Swansea’s recent unbeaten run giving them the edge.
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.53 | 1.40 | 1.71 | 1.41 | 1.31 | 1.38 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 1.77 | 1.32 | 1.85 | 1.46 | 1.67 | 1.11 |
| vs Similar (6) | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.67 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.60 | 1.77 | 1.50 | 2.00 | 1.71 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (24) | 1.54 | 1.71 | 1.54 | 1.92 | 1.55 | 1.45 |
| vs Weaker (6) | 1.83 | 2.00 | 1.33 | 2.33 | 2.33 | 1.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
| Swansea University goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 6.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.2% |
| 1 | 4.0% | 11% | 9.4% | 6.1% | 3.0% |
| 2 | 3.4% | 6.7% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.0% |
| 3 | 1.6% | 3.0% | 2.9% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 1.0% | 1.0% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.50 | 0.47 | 0.71 | 0.53 | 0.23 | 0.38 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 0.55 | 0.41 | 0.77 | 0.54 | 0.22 | 0.22 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.64 | 0.36 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.65 | 0.52 | 0.69 | 0.69 | 0.60 | 0.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 57% (+35pp vs league) | |||||
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.03 | 0.93 | 1.00 | 0.88 | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 1.23 | 0.91 | 1.08 | 0.92 | 1.44 | 0.89 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.50 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
Swansea University| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.87 | 1.30 | 0.81 | 1.31 | 0.93 | 1.29 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.87 | 1.26 | 0.85 | 1.23 | 0.90 | 1.30 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.86 | 1.43 | 0.67 | 1.67 | 1.00 | 1.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 95.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 94.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 88.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 86.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 85.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 85.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 76.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 76.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 74.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Draw or Away | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +1 handicap | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 70.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
Aberystwyth Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 4-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 22/08/26 | H | 5-1 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 |
Swansea University| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 4-4 | |
| 21/08/26 | A | 1-5 | |
| 15/08/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 09/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 01/08/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 18/10/25 | H | 1-6 | |
| 20/09/25 | A | 1-2 | |
| 16/11/24 | A | 3-0 | |
| 26/10/24 | A | 0-2 | |
| 21/09/24 | H | 5-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |