Aberystwyth Town, fresh off a win against Afan Lido, host Treowen Stars in the Wales: FAW Championship. Recent form suggests a high-scoring match, with the home side averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 goals conceded at home, while the away side averages 2.38 goals scored and 2.38 goals conceded away from home. The expected total number of goals is 3.4, with a most likely total of 3 goals. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a probability of 10.5%. The model suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection with a probability of 85.7%.
The probabilities for the match are: Aberystwyth Town to win 50%, draw 24%, and Treowen Stars to win 27%. The model's selection is a home win. Aberystwyth Town's home scoring and conceding averages are 1.88 and 0.88 goals respectively, while Treowen Stars' away scoring and conceding averages are 2.38 and 2.38 goals respectively, all against similar opponents.
Aberystwyth Town's 1-2 loss to Treowen Stars extends the home side's run of not winning in their last five matches, following a defeat. The actual result was an away win, which was not predicted by the pre-match favourite, Aberystwyth Town, who had a 50% probability of winning. However, the model's selection, Home win, was incorrect. The model's selection, Home win, had a lower probability than the actual outcome. Meanwhile, the model's selection, Over 1.5, hit, with an 85.7% probability.
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.43 | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.20 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 1.50 | 1.36 | 1.55 | 1.45 | 1.45 | 1.27 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 2.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.80 | 2.07 | 1.81 | 1.69 | 1.79 | 2.50 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.95 | 1.86 | 1.83 | 1.42 | 2.10 | 2.40 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.38 | 2.62 | 1.75 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-9pp vs league) | |||||
| Treowen Stars goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.5% | 3.9% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 5.9% | 11% | 6.7% | 3.1% | 1.1% |
| 2 | 6.7% | 9.3% | 6.5% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 4.3% | 6.1% | 4.3% | 2.0% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 2.1% | 3.0% | 2.1% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.53 | 0.60 | 0.20 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 0.41 | 0.50 | 0.64 | 0.64 | 0.18 | 0.36 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.33 | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 0.33 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+31pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.43 | 0.83 | 0.31 | 0.75 | 0.57 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 0.55 | 0.91 | 0.42 | 0.92 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 0.12 | 0.62 | 0.00 | 0.25 | 0.25 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.90 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (22) | 1.09 | 0.86 | 0.91 | 0.82 | 1.27 | 0.91 |
| vs Similar (6) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Treowen Stars| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.37 | 1.23 | 1.50 | 0.94 | 1.21 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (22) | 1.41 | 0.95 | 1.42 | 0.50 | 1.40 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 1.25 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.25 | 0.75 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 11/10/25 | A | 2-3 |
Aberystwyth Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | A | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 24/02/26 | A | 2-1 |
Treowen Stars| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 6-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-5 | |
| 23/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 2-3 | |
| 17/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |