AC Oulu are tipped to win, with a 53% chance of triumph, a 27% chance of a draw and a 20% chance of FF Jaro taking the victory. The model expects 2.5 goals on average, with the most probable total being two goals at 27%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 12.9% probability. AC Oulu have been scoring 1.33 goals and conceding 1.25 at home against similar opposition, while FF Jaro, on the road, averages 1.27 scored and 1.64 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 5.5 cards at 83.3%, Under 3.5 at 75.1% (hit), Under 25.5 fouls at 74.3%, Over 1.5 at 73.1% (hit), Over 19.5 fouls at 73.0% and Over 2.5 cards at 71.1%. The match preview highlights AC Oulu’s slight edge, the expected modest goal tally, and the key statistical trends for both sides.
Results analysis
AC Oulu’s recent draw against SJK has set the stage for a winning streak that finally materialised as they edged FF Jaro 2-1. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, with a pre-match probability of 53%. The predicted total of 2.5 goals fell close to reality, and the most likely scoreline of 1-1 (27%) was not achieved, but the actual 2-1 result still aligned with the model’s expectations. The model’s selections also hit: Under 3.5 goals came in at 75.1% and Over 1.5 at 73.1%. All suggested picks settled, confirming the model’s accuracy for this fixture.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AC Oulu win✓ Hit
52.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
27.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro win✗ Miss
20.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AC Oulu
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.43
1.33
1.40
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (7)
1.14
1.86
1.33
2.00
1.00
1.75
vs Similar (23)
1.39
1.30
1.33
1.25
1.45
1.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.80
1.31
1.69
1.53
1.88
vs Stronger (7)
1.43
2.29
1.00
2.00
1.60
2.40
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.64
1.36
1.64
1.27
1.64
vs Weaker (1)
4.00
2.00
-
-
4.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
13% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.1%
Under 1.5
26.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.4%
Under 2.5
53.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.9%
Under 3.5
75.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
49.2%
No
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.9%
1-0
11.7%
2-0
10.4%
2-1 ✓
9.5%
0-0
9.1%
0-1
6.1%
3-0
5.6%
1-2
5.4%
AC Oulu goals ↓
FF Jaro goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.1%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
1
12%
13%
5.4%
1.6%
0.4%
2
10%
9.5%
4.4%
1.3%
0.3%
3
5.6%
5.1%
2.3%
0.7%
0.2%
4
2.3%
2.1%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AC Oulu goals (down), columns = FF Jaro goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
KuPS
1.95
Inter Turku
1.91
HJK Helsinki
1.68
Gnistan
1.64
AC Oulu
1.55
VPS
1.50
Lahti
1.45
Turku PS
1.41
Ilves
1.14
SJK
0.86
FF Jaro
0.68
Mariehamn
0.64
AC Oulu is 0.86 points better than FF Jaro in terms of average points per game (1.55 vs 0.68).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
KuPS
1.73
HJK Helsinki
1.64
Gnistan
1.64
Ilves
1.55
VPS
1.32
Inter Turku
1.32
Turku PS
1.27
Lahti
1.18
SJK
1.14
AC Oulu
1.14
FF Jaro
0.82
Mariehamn
0.77
AC Oulu is 0.32 goals better than FF Jaro in terms of goals scored per game (1.14 vs 0.82).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Inter Turku
0.73
Lahti
0.86
VPS
1.00
KuPS
1.05
Turku PS
1.05
AC Oulu
1.14
HJK Helsinki
1.23
Gnistan
1.32
SJK
1.50
Ilves
1.68
Mariehamn
1.95
FF Jaro
2.00
AC Oulu is 0.86 goals better than FF Jaro in terms of goals conceded per game (1.14 vs 2.00).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Inter Turku
58%
KuPS
57%
Lahti
56%
HJK Helsinki
55%
SJK
50%
Turku PS
50%
Ilves
49%
VPS
48%
AC Oulu
48%
FF Jaro
47%
Mariehamn
45%
Gnistan
44%
AC Oulu is 1.3 percentage points better than FF Jaro in terms of average possession (48% vs 47%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AC Oulu
For 4.9 · Against 4.9 · Total 9.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.2 · Against 12.6 · Total 22.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FF Jaro
For 4.5 · Against 5.1 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.4 · Against 8.9 · Total 20.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AC Oulu
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
11.4
8.5
1.2
1.4
1.0
22.3
24.9
20.1
vs Stronger (10)
10.0
12.0
8.7
1.7
2.5
1.2
21.8
25.5
19.3
vs Similar (39)
9.8
11.2
8.4
1.1
1.2
0.9
22.6
24.6
20.6
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
47%
71%
25%
20%
25%
15%
53%
86%
25%
% under line
53%
29%
75%
80%
75%
85%
47%
14%
75%
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.4
10.9
9.7
1.1
1.4
0.8
19.5
19.7
19.2
vs Stronger (9)
11.0
9.0
13.0
0.4
0.3
0.5
15.0
19.0
11.0
vs Similar (40)
10.3
11.1
9.0
1.2
1.6
0.9
20.2
19.8
20.8
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
47%
56%
33%
12%
18%
7%
40%
33%
50%
% under line
53%
44%
67%
88%
82%
93%
60%
67%
50%
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Gnistan
11.8
Turku PS
11.2
SJK
10.6
Inter Turku
10.5
Mariehamn
10.5
FF Jaro
10.4
Ilves
10.3
VPS
10.2
HJK Helsinki
10.1
Lahti
9.9
AC Oulu
9.9
KuPS
9.9
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Turku PS
6.6
Lahti
4.8
Mariehamn
4.1
Gnistan
4.1
SJK
4.0
AC Oulu
3.9
Ilves
3.9
Inter Turku
3.9
VPS
3.7
FF Jaro
3.5
KuPS
3.5
HJK Helsinki
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Turku PS
30.6
SJK
24.3
Ilves
24.1
Lahti
23.6
Inter Turku
23.6
Mariehamn
23.3
VPS
22.6
Gnistan
22.4
KuPS
22.4
AC Oulu
22.3
HJK Helsinki
21.0
FF Jaro
19.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
55.6%
Under 9.5
44.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
50.2%
Under 3.5
49.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
57.0%
Under 21.5
43.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AC Oulu
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.60
0.53
0.53
0.47
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Similar (23)
0.48
0.61
0.50
0.58
0.45
0.64
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.62
0.62
0.76
0.88
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
0.86
1.00
0.50
0.20
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.73
0.77
0.55
0.64
0.91
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AC Oulu over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Oulu over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Oulu over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AC Oulu
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.83
0.80
0.87
0.87
0.80
vs Stronger (7)
0.57
1.29
0.67
1.67
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.91
0.70
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.73
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (FF Jaro) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FF Jaro
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.03
0.69
1.08
0.76
1.00
vs Stronger (7)
1.00
1.43
0.00
1.50
1.40
1.40
vs Similar (22)
0.59
0.86
0.82
1.00
0.36
0.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
2.00
-
-
2.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
30% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (AC Oulu) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AC Oulu over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Oulu over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AC Oulu over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FF Jaro over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
75.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 25.5 fouls
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
73.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AC Oulu
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Julius Körkkö40%
Kalifa Jatta25%
Iiro Mendolin17%
Elias Kallio17%
R. Karjalainen14%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Julius Paananen0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Julius Körkkö40%
M. Ojala33%
Julius Paananen33%
Juha Pirinen29%
M. Pitkänen25%
J. Lietsa25%
Otto Kemppainen20%
Iiro Mendolin17%
Miguel Santos0%
R. Karjalainen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Santeri Silander0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
Elias Kallio0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
R. Karjalainen29%
Julius Körkkö20%
Iiro Mendolin17%
L. Ghezali14%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Julius Paananen0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
Elias Kallio0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Julius Körkkö60%
R. Karjalainen43%
Julius Paananen17%
Elias Kallio17%
Juha Pirinen0%
Miguel Santos0%
M. Ojala0%
M. Pitkänen0%
Tuomas Kaukua0%
N. Jokelainen0%
L. Ghezali0%
S. Sipola0%
Otto Kemppainen0%
J. Lietsa0%
Santeri Silander0%
Iiro Mendolin0%
Kalifa Jatta0%
FF Jaro
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
H. Sjögrell38%
R. Vikström25%
Kaius Hardén17%
Fabian Östigard Ness17%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
A. Vidjeskog50%
M. Ogungbaro29%
J. Skau25%
R. Vikström25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
V. Vuorinen12%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
H. Sjögrell0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Kaius Hardén0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Mats Pedersen25%
Oliver Kass Kawo17%
H. Sjögrell12%
V. Vuorinen12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Kaius Hardén0%
R. Vikström0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
H. Sjögrell38%
Kaius Hardén17%
R. Vikström12%
A. Vidjeskog0%
Johan Brunell0%
J. Myrevik0%
M. Ogungbaro0%
Senne Vits0%
Erik Gunnarsson0%
Aron Bjonbäck0%
J. Skau0%
Mats Pedersen0%
Oliver Kass Kawo0%
V. Vuorinen0%
Fabian Östigard Ness0%
Linus Zetterstrom0%
Joas Vikström0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (30)
€7m
HH (28)
€7m
IT (25)
€5m
ILV (23)
€4m
SJK (26)
€4m
AO (23)
€4m
VPS (22)
€3m
GNI (21)
€3m
LAH (22)
€3m
MAR (23)
€2m
TP (22)
€2m
FJ (20)
€2m
AC Oulu's squad is €1m more valuable than FF Jaro's (€4m vs €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (10)
€2m
KUP (9)
€2m
IT (9)
€2m
SJK (8)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
ILV (7)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
GNI (6)
€1m
LAH (9)
€1m
TP (8)
€1m
MAR (9)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
AC Oulu and FF Jaro have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KUP (9)
€3m
HH (6)
€1m
ILV (5)
€1m
IT (5)
€1m
AO (6)
€1m
SJK (9)
€1m
FJ (6)
€1m
VPS (5)
€1m
MAR (4)
€1m
GNI (5)
€1m
LAH (3)
€1m
TP (4)
€0m
AC Oulu and FF Jaro have a similar midfield value (both €1m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
HH (12)
€3m
KUP (12)
€3m
IT (11)
€2m
ILV (11)
€2m
SJK (9)
€2m
VPS (12)
€1m
AO (11)
€1m
GNI (10)
€1m
LAH (10)
€1m
TP (10)
€1m
MAR (10)
€1m
FJ (7)
€1m
AC Oulu and FF Jaro have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Finland: Veikkausliiga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Finland: Veikkausliiga stats & trends →
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KuPS
Inter Turku
HJK Helsinki
Gnistan
VPS
Lahti
Turku PS
Ilves
SJK
Mariehamn