PythiaFootballBETA
AC Oulu, coming off a defeat to HJK Helsinki, hosts Ilves in a high-scoring match. The model predicts a home win, with a 38% chance of AC Oulu emerging victorious. The away team, Ilves, has a 36% chance of winning and a 26% chance of drawing. Ilves has been in decent form, particularly away from home, scoring an average of 1.56 goals per match against similar opponents, while AC Oulu has struggled at home, conceding an average of 1.8 goals per match.
The expected total number of goals is 3.2, with the most likely total number of goals being 3. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 11.6%. AC Oulu has scored an average of 0.6 goals per match at home, while Ilves has conceded an average of 1.78 goals per match away from home.
The model's selection is the home win, with the over 1.5 goals selection having an 83.6% probability. Other model selections include the over 2.5 goals with 83.6% probability, the draw with 26% probability, and the away win with 36% probability. AC Oulu has a 38% chance of winning, a 26% chance of drawing, and a 36% chance of losing.
The win extends AC Oulu's run of inconsistency, as they bounce back from a defeat. However, the 1-0 scoreline belies the true story of the match, as the final score of 1-0 was far from the expected total of 3.2 goals. In fact, the actual total was well clear of this, and the most likely score of 1-1 was nowhere to be seen. The model's selection, a home win, proved correct, with Ilves unable to find the back of the net. The model's selection was the favourite, with a 38% chance of winning pre-match. It also correctly predicted a low-scoring affair, with the suggested pick of Over 1.5 goals missing, despite a 83.6% probability of it happening.
AC Oulu| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.27 | 1.47 | 1.31 | 1.23 | 1.24 | 1.65 |
| vs Stronger (8) | 1.12 | 1.50 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.56 | 1.20 | 1.50 | 1.62 | 1.62 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+5pp vs league) | |||||
Ilves| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.90 | 1.63 | 1.87 | 1.20 | 1.93 | 2.07 |
| vs Stronger (4) | 2.25 | 2.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 3.50 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.84 | 1.47 | 2.00 | 1.22 | 1.70 | 1.70 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.86 | 1.57 | 2.00 | 0.75 | 1.67 | 2.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-1pp vs league) | |||||
| Ilves goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.2% | 5.5% | 5.1% | 2.7% | 1.1% |
| 1 | 5.6% | 12% | 8.3% | 4.3% | 1.7% |
| 2 | 5.4% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.5% | 1.4% |
| 3 | 2.9% | 4.5% | 3.6% | 1.9% | 0.7% |
| 4 | 1.2% | 1.8% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.3% |
AC OuluIlvesAC Oulu| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.1 | 11.5 | 8.9 | 1.4 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 22.7 | 25.0 | 20.8 |
| vs Stronger (13) | 10.0 | 12.0 | 8.7 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 21.8 | 25.5 | 19.3 |
| vs Similar (29) | 9.9 | 11.2 | 8.2 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 24.6 | 24.6 | 24.5 |
| vs Weaker (8) | 10.5 | 12.0 | 10.0 | 2.0 | 1.7 | 2.2 | 19.5 | 26.0 | 17.3 |
| % over line | 50% | 75% | 30% | 24% | 30% | 19% | 56% | 88% | 30% |
| % under line | 50% | 25% | 70% | 76% | 70% | 81% | 44% | 12% | 70% |
Ilves| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.5 | 10.8 | 10.3 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 18.9 | 18.8 | 19.0 |
| vs Stronger (10) | 9.6 | 10.0 | 9.3 | 1.3 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 17.6 | 13.0 | 20.7 |
| vs Similar (27) | 10.2 | 9.3 | 10.9 | 1.9 | 1.7 | 2.0 | 18.3 | 18.3 | 18.2 |
| vs Weaker (13) | 13.7 | 16.0 | 9.0 | 1.4 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 24.0 | 26.0 | 20.0 |
| % over line | 55% | 40% | 67% | 24% | 21% | 27% | 45% | 50% | 42% |
| % under line | 45% | 60% | 33% | 76% | 79% | 73% | 55% | 50% | 58% |
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 83.6% | 1.20 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.22 | 1.20 | +6.2% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 08/05/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 16/08/25 | H | 0-4 | |
| 24/05/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 04/08/24 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/05/24 | A | 3-2 | |
| 06/10/23 | A | 3-2 | |
| 19/08/23 | H | 0-3 | |
| 05/05/23 | A | 1-2 |
AC Oulu| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 0-2 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 5-1 | |
| 18/06/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 13/06/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 31/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 16/05/26 | H | 1-0 |
Ilves| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 04/07/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 27/06/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/06/26 | A | 4-3 | |
| 17/06/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 13/06/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 30/05/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 23/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 20/05/26 | H | 1-3 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  KuPS | 19 | 40 | 58% | 2.1 | 34 | 17 | +17 | 2.7 | 84% | 42% | 26% | 8.1 | 33% | 1.9 | 11% | 19.9 | 44% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 0.9 | 57% |
| 2 |  Inter Turku | 19 | 35 | 47% | 1.8 | 25 | 14 | +11 | 2.1 | 68% | 32% | 16% | 10.7 | 67% | 2.3 | 14% | 19.7 | 57% | 5 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 58% |
| 3 |  HJK Helsinki | 19 | 31 | 47% | 1.6 | 29 | 23 | +6 | 2.7 | 68% | 53% | 26% | 7.0 | 14% | 3.0 | 43% | 18.4 | 43% | 6 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 55% |
| 4 |  VPS | 20 | 30 | 40% | 1.5 | 28 | 21 | +7 | 2.5 | 65% | 45% | 30% | 7.1 | 30% | 3.4 | 50% | 21.8 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 48% |
| 5 | AC Oulu | 19 | 30 | 47% | 1.6 | 22 | 22 | +0 | 2.3 | 58% | 37% | 16% | 9.5 | 38% | 3.8 | 62% | 22.6 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.2 | 1.2 | 48% |
| 6 |  Gnistan | 19 | 29 | 42% | 1.5 | 29 | 24 | +5 | 2.8 | 79% | 42% | 26% | 10.1 | 57% | 3.6 | 50% | 24.2 | 71% | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1.5 | 1.3 | 44% |
| 7 |  Turku PS | 20 | 29 | 40% | 1.4 | 27 | 22 | +5 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 25% | 7.7 | 40% | 3.9 | 60% | 20.3 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 50% |
| 8 |  Lahti | 19 | 26 | 37% | 1.4 | 22 | 16 | +6 | 2.0 | 63% | 26% | 11% | 8.3 | 50% | 3.8 | 60% | 22.6 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | 1.2 | 0.8 | 56% |
| 9 | Ilves | 19 | 25 | 37% | 1.3 | 31 | 31 | +0 | 3.3 | 79% | 63% | 53% | 8.1 | 11% | 3.0 | 56% | 18.0 | 44% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 49% |
| 10 |  SJK | 20 | 18 | 20% | 0.9 | 24 | 31 | -7 | 2.8 | 85% | 55% | 30% | 9.0 | 57% | 3.9 | 57% | 20.4 | 57% | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 50% |
| 11 |  FF Jaro | 19 | 15 | 16% | 0.8 | 18 | 38 | -20 | 2.9 | 84% | 58% | 32% | 8.4 | 30% | 3.1 | 40% | 19.2 | 50% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.9 | 2.0 | 47% |
| 12 |  Mariehamn | 20 | 8 | 5% | 0.4 | 11 | 41 | -30 | 2.6 | 85% | 45% | 20% | 10.5 | 70% | 3.0 | 64% | 21.3 | 64% | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0.6 | 2.0 | 45% |