Academica’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.0 goal scored and 1.36 conceded against stronger opposition, while Amarante’s away form is strikingly clean, conceding none and scoring 2.0 against weaker teams. The model projects a tight, low-scoring affair with an expected total of 2.1 goals, most likely 2 goals overall. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. The favored result is a home win, with probabilities of 45% for a win, 31% for a draw, and 24% for an away win. Suggested selections include Under 7.5 (99.8%), Under 6.5 (99.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.9%), Under 5.5 (97.8%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.0%), Away under 2.5 goals (94.4%), Under 4.5 (93.5%) and Over 2.5 cards (92.7%). The model’s pick remains a home win.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Academica win
44.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
31.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Amarante win
23.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Academica
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.17
1.57
1.19
1.25
1.14
1.93
vs Stronger (26)
1.08
1.58
1.00
1.36
1.17
1.83
vs Similar (4)
1.75
1.50
2.50
0.50
1.00
2.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-5pp vs league)
This opponent (Amarante) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amarante
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.18
2.00
0.60
1.50
1.67
vs Stronger (4)
1.75
2.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
2.67
vs Similar (6)
1.67
0.83
2.25
0.75
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
36% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
64.1%
Under 1.5
35.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
35.8%
Under 2.5
64.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
16.7%
Under 3.5
83.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
42.7%
No
57.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.3%
1-0
13.8%
0-0
13.2%
2-0
9.6%
0-1
8.9%
2-1
8.3%
1-2
5.6%
0-2
4.4%
Academica goals ↓
Amarante goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
8.9%
4.4%
1.2%
0.3%
1
14%
14%
5.6%
1.6%
0.3%
2
9.6%
8.3%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
3
4.1%
3.5%
1.5%
0.4%
0.1%
4
1.3%
1.1%
0.5%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Academica goals (down), columns = Amarante goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Torreense
1.74
AVS
1.50
Vizela
1.50
FC Porto B
1.50
Leixoes
1.47
União de Leiria
1.47
Tondela
1.36
Feirense
1.35
Chaves
1.32
Benfica B
1.29
Felgueiras 1932
1.29
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.26
Sporting CP B
1.24
Farense
1.22
Penafiel
1.21
Portimonense
1.18
Academica
0.98
Amarante
0.82
Academica is 0.16 points better than Amarante in terms of average points per game (0.98 vs 0.82).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
União de Leiria
1.53
Leixoes
1.35
Torreense
1.35
AVS
1.30
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.29
Benfica B
1.26
Chaves
1.24
Sporting CP B
1.21
FC Porto B
1.21
Tondela
1.17
Vizela
1.15
Portimonense
1.15
Penafiel
1.09
Feirense
1.09
Felgueiras 1932
1.00
Farense
0.89
Academica
0.85
Amarante
0.71
Academica is 0.14 goals better than Amarante in terms of goals scored per game (0.85 vs 0.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Torreense
0.97
Sporting CP B
1.00
Farense
1.03
AVS
1.05
Felgueiras 1932
1.12
Penafiel
1.15
Tondela
1.16
Vizela
1.18
Feirense
1.18
Chaves
1.18
FC Porto B
1.24
Benfica B
1.29
União de Leiria
1.35
Portimonense
1.44
Lusitânia Lourosa
1.53
Academica
1.61
Leixoes
1.62
Amarante
1.92
Academica is 0.31 goals better than Amarante in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.92).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Chaves
55%
Sporting CP B
54%
Benfica B
54%
Vizela
54%
Felgueiras 1932
54%
União de Leiria
51%
Leixoes
50%
Farense
49%
Penafiel
49%
Portimonense
48%
Lusitânia Lourosa
48%
FC Porto B
47%
Torreense
46%
Feirense
42%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Academica
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
For 2.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Amarante
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Academica
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (47)
-
-
-
0.3
0.5
0.1
-
-
-
vs Stronger (42)
-
-
-
0.3
0.6
0.1
-
-
-
vs Similar (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
4%
8%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
96%
92%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Amarante) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amarante
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (17)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Penafiel
11.5
Portimonense
11.1
Torreense
11.0
Farense
10.9
Lusitânia Lourosa
10.4
FC Porto B
10.3
Felgueiras 1932
10.1
Vizela
9.9
União de Leiria
9.8
Benfica B
9.6
Tondela
9.6
AVS
9.6
Leixoes
9.0
Feirense
9.0
Chaves
8.8
Sporting CP B
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Benfica B
6.7
Feirense
6.5
Vizela
6.3
Chaves
6.1
Leixoes
6.1
FC Porto B
6.0
Sporting CP B
6.0
Lusitânia Lourosa
5.9
Felgueiras 1932
5.9
Farense
5.7
União de Leiria
5.6
Portimonense
5.4
Penafiel
5.3
Torreense
5.2
Tondela
5.2
AVS
5.1
Academica
4.7
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Farense
31.1
Lusitânia Lourosa
30.1
Leixoes
26.4
Tondela
25.7
AVS
25.5
Sporting CP B
25.0
União de Leiria
24.1
Felgueiras 1932
23.5
Penafiel
22.9
FC Porto B
21.9
Portimonense
21.8
Benfica B
21.2
Torreense
21.1
Chaves
20.9
Vizela
20.8
Feirense
20.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
48.1%
Under 9.5
51.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
82.7%
Under 3.5
17.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
69.7%
Under 21.5
30.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Academica or Draw
76.3%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Academica + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Academica or Amarante
68.6%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Academica + Amarante
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Amarante
55.2%
Avg Implied -
45%
31%
24%
covers Draw + Amarante
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Academica over/under 0.5
Over
72.0%
Under
28.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 1.5
Over
36.4%
Under
63.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 2.5
Over
13.7%
Under
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 3.5
Over
4.0%
Under
96.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 0.5
Over
57.5%
Under
42.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 1.5
Over
21.2%
Under
78.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 2.5
Over
5.6%
Under
94.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 3.5
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Academica, so a minus line means Academica give that many goals of a start and Amarante receive them. At -1, Academica must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Academica win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Academica)
Academica -2
7.4%
Draw -2
13.7%
Amarante +2
78.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Academica)
Academica -1
21.1%
Draw -1
23.7%
Amarante +1
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Academica)
Academica +1
76.3%
Draw +1
15.5%
Amarante -1
8.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Academica)
Academica +2
91.8%
Draw +2
6.2%
Amarante -2
2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Academica
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.77
0.56
0.62
0.43
0.93
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.77
0.50
0.64
0.50
0.92
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Amarante) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amarante
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.20
0.40
0.75
1.75
vs Stronger (3)
1.00
1.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.50
vs Similar (6)
1.00
0.67
1.25
0.50
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
44% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Academica over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Academica
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.80
0.62
0.62
0.71
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.58
0.81
0.50
0.71
0.67
0.92
vs Similar (4)
1.25
0.75
1.50
0.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Amarante) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Amarante
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.44
0.33
0.80
0.20
0.00
0.50
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (6)
0.67
0.17
1.00
0.25
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
78% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (Academica) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Academica over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Academica over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Amarante over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
93.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
92.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
83.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
82.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
78.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
78.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +1 handicap
76.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (26)
€31m
FPB (28)
€29m
TOR (32)
€19m
SCB (23)
€17m
VIZ (29)
€12m
TON (20)
€10m
UDL (25)
€10m
CHA (22)
€9m
FAR (24)
€8m
AVS (20)
€7m
POR (20)
€6m
LEI (21)
€6m
PEN (23)
€5m
F1 (20)
€5m
LL (19)
€5m
FEI (17)
€4m
ACA (11)
€2m
AMA (6)
€1m
Academica's squad is €1m more valuable than Amarante's (€2m vs €1m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FPB (10)
€13m
BB (9)
€9m
TOR (12)
€7m
VIZ (13)
€5m
SCB (9)
€5m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (10)
€3m
AVS (8)
€3m
CHA (5)
€3m
TON (7)
€2m
POR (7)
€2m
LEI (7)
€2m
PEN (8)
€1m
F1 (4)
€1m
ACA (6)
€1m
FEI (6)
€1m
LL (6)
€1m
AMA (1)
€0m
Academica's attack is €1m more valuable than Amarante's (€1m vs €0m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (7)
€10m
FPB (6)
€7m
SCB (5)
€5m
CHA (5)
€2m
TOR (5)
€2m
VIZ (5)
€2m
UDL (7)
€2m
FAR (3)
€2m
AVS (2)
€2m
TON (4)
€1m
F1 (6)
€1m
LEI (3)
€1m
POR (5)
€1m
LL (2)
€1m
AMA (3)
€1m
FEI (3)
€1m
PEN (2)
€0m
ACA (1)
€0m
Academica and Amarante have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BB (10)
€13m
TOR (15)
€10m
FPB (12)
€9m
SCB (9)
€7m
TON (9)
€6m
VIZ (11)
€4m
CHA (12)
€4m
UDL (9)
€4m
FAR (11)
€4m
PEN (13)
€3m
LL (11)
€3m
AVS (10)
€3m
FEI (8)
€3m
LEI (11)
€3m
POR (8)
€3m
F1 (10)
€2m
ACA (4)
€1m
AMA (2)
€0m
Academica and Amarante have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Portugal: Segunda Liga 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Portugal: Segunda Liga stats & trends →