The contest between Admira Wacker and First Vienna is finely balanced, with the model favouring a home win. The probabilities are 40% for Admira to lift the trophy, 30% for a draw and 30% for First Vienna to triumph. The expected total of goals is 2.4, centring on a 2-goal outcome that the model predicts with a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.2% probability. Admira, playing at home against an opponent of similar strength, averages 1.0 goal scored and 0.69 conceded. First Vienna, on the road and also facing a comparable side, averages 2.18 scored and 1.45 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 88.7%, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.5%, Under 3.5 at 77.7% (miss), Over 3.5 cards at 75.5% (miss), Under 11.5 corners at 75.2% (hit) and Over 1.5 at 70.7% (hit). The match remains a tight affair, with both sides capable of turning the tide.
Results analysis
Admira Wacker’s win extends their recent form, ending a streak of three games with a victory that saw them finish 3-1 over First Vienna. The model’s pre-match favourite was a home win at 40 percent, and that call proved correct. The suggested picks were mixed: Over 2.5 cards at 88.7 percent hit, Over 19.5 fouls at 82.5 percent hit, Under 3.5 at 77.7 percent missed, Over 3.5 cards at 75.5 percent missed, Under 11.5 corners at 75.2 percent hit, and Over 1.5 at 70.7 percent hit. The predicted most likely score of 1-1 with a 27 percent chance was not achieved, as the match produced a 3-1 result.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Admira Wacker win✓ Hit
39.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
First Vienna win✗ Miss
30.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Admira Wacker
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.60
0.77
1.13
0.60
2.07
0.93
vs Stronger (2)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
1.44
0.81
1.00
0.69
1.86
0.93
vs Weaker (1)
5.00
1.00
-
-
5.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
1.33
2.06
1.41
2.00
1.23
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.33
3.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
2.07
1.44
2.00
1.44
2.18
1.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+0pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
70.7%
Under 1.5
29.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
43.3%
Under 2.5
56.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
22.3%
Under 3.5
77.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
No
50.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.2%
1-0
10.4%
0-0
10.3%
0-1
8.6%
2-1
8.5%
2-0
7.7%
1-2
7.1%
0-2
5.5%
Admira Wacker goals ↓
First Vienna goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
10%
8.6%
5.5%
2.0%
0.6%
1
10%
14%
7.1%
2.6%
0.7%
2
7.7%
8.5%
4.7%
1.7%
0.5%
3
3.3%
3.7%
2.0%
0.7%
0.2%
4
1.1%
1.2%
0.7%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Admira Wacker goals (down), columns = First Vienna goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Ried
2.17
Admira Wacker
1.97
SV Kapfenberg
1.80
SKN ST. Polten
1.77
First Vienna
1.63
FC Liefering
1.43
Sturm Graz II
1.40
SKU Amstetten
1.40
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.27
Austria Lustenau
1.23
Floridsdorfer AC
1.23
Rapid Wien II
1.23
Stripfing
1.13
Voitsberg
1.07
SV Horn
1.00
SV Lafnitz
0.53
Admira Wacker is 0.33 points better than First Vienna in terms of average points per game (1.97 vs 1.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Ried
1.97
SKN ST. Polten
1.87
SV Kapfenberg
1.77
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.70
SKU Amstetten
1.63
Rapid Wien II
1.63
First Vienna
1.63
Sturm Graz II
1.60
Admira Wacker
1.60
FC Liefering
1.43
SV Lafnitz
1.33
SV Horn
1.33
Stripfing
1.30
Floridsdorfer AC
1.00
Voitsberg
1.00
Austria Lustenau
0.80
Admira Wacker is 0.03 goals worse than First Vienna in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 1.63).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ried
0.77
Austria Lustenau
0.87
Admira Wacker
1.03
SKN ST. Polten
1.13
Floridsdorfer AC
1.17
SKU Amstetten
1.33
Voitsberg
1.37
Sturm Graz II
1.43
FC Liefering
1.43
Stripfing
1.43
First Vienna
1.47
SV Kapfenberg
1.63
Schwarz-Weiß Bregenz
1.90
Rapid Wien II
1.90
SV Horn
2.03
SV Lafnitz
2.70
Admira Wacker is 0.43 goals better than First Vienna in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.47).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Ried
56%
Admira Wacker
52%
FC Liefering
51%
First Vienna
51%
SKN ST. Polten
51%
SV Kapfenberg
51%
Floridsdorfer AC
50%
Rapid Wien II
50%
Voitsberg
50%
Austria Lustenau
49%
SV Lafnitz
49%
SV Horn
46%
SKU Amstetten
45%
Admira Wacker is 1.2 percentage points better than First Vienna in terms of average possession (52% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Admira Wacker
For 4.4 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.1 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 10.6 · Total 22.9
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
First Vienna
For 2.9 · Against 5.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 3.1 · Total 6.2
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 14.4 · Total 26.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Admira Wacker
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.5
9.6
3.6
3.9
3.3
23.1
22.4
24.0
vs Stronger (3)
10.3
9.0
13.0
3.7
4.5
2.0
24.3
27.0
19.0
vs Similar (46)
8.9
8.4
9.4
3.7
3.8
3.5
23.0
21.8
24.3
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
46%
37%
56%
48%
52%
44%
72%
74%
71%
% under line
54%
63%
44%
52%
48%
56%
28%
26%
29%
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.3
9.6
11.0
3.6
4.0
3.2
26.6
27.1
26.0
vs Stronger (4)
13.5
8.0
19.0
5.5
7.5
3.5
23.8
25.5
22.0
vs Similar (46)
9.8
9.8
9.9
3.5
3.8
3.1
26.9
27.2
26.6
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
65%
72%
56%
52%
58%
46%
83%
89%
75%
% under line
35%
28%
44%
48%
42%
54%
17%
11%
25%
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
First Vienna
11.0
FC Liefering
10.6
Floridsdorfer AC
10.6
SV Lafnitz
10.3
SKU Amstetten
10.3
SV Kapfenberg
10.1
SKN ST. Polten
9.6
Austria Lustenau
9.6
Admira Wacker
9.6
Rapid Wien II
9.3
SV Horn
9.2
Ried
9.1
Voitsberg
8.5
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Voitsberg
6.7
SV Kapfenberg
6.5
SV Lafnitz
5.2
Floridsdorfer AC
5.2
SKN ST. Polten
5.2
Austria Lustenau
5.1
Admira Wacker
5.1
First Vienna
5.0
Ried
5.0
FC Liefering
4.9
SV Horn
4.8
SKU Amstetten
4.7
Rapid Wien II
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Voitsberg
28.2
Floridsdorfer AC
26.8
First Vienna
26.5
FC Liefering
26.0
SV Kapfenberg
25.5
Admira Wacker
24.7
SKU Amstetten
24.4
Ried
24.4
Rapid Wien II
24.2
SV Horn
24.2
SV Lafnitz
24.0
Austria Lustenau
23.1
SKN ST. Polten
22.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
47.8%
Under 9.5
52.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
75.5%
Under 3.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
69.3%
Under 21.5
30.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Admira Wacker
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.27
0.47
0.27
0.87
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
1.50
0.00
1.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.30
0.31
0.31
0.79
0.29
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
0.00
-
-
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.80
1.06
0.76
0.69
0.85
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.00
0.85
1.12
0.75
0.82
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Admira Wacker over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Admira Wacker
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.50
0.67
0.33
1.20
0.67
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.50
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (27)
0.89
0.52
0.69
0.38
1.07
0.64
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
1.00
-
-
3.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (First Vienna) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
First Vienna
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.53
1.00
0.65
1.31
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
1.67
0.00
3.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (27)
1.07
0.59
0.88
0.69
1.36
0.45
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Admira Wacker) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Admira Wacker over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Admira Wacker over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
First Vienna over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 2.5 cards
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
75.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (24)
€7m
FL (17)
€5m
AL (22)
€5m
FV (24)
€5m
SSP (20)
€4m
AW (23)
€4m
RWI (24)
€4m
SGI (22)
€4m
SB (22)
€3m
SA (20)
€3m
FA (19)
€3m
SK (23)
€3m
Admira Wacker and First Vienna have a similar squad value (both €4m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
FL (4)
€3m
AL (10)
€2m
RIE (7)
€2m
RWI (12)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
SGI (7)
€1m
FV (7)
€1m
SB (9)
€1m
SA (7)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (7)
€1m
Admira Wacker and First Vienna have a similar attack value (both €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (8)
€3m
FV (8)
€2m
SSP (6)
€1m
FL (6)
€1m
FA (5)
€1m
AL (3)
€1m
SK (6)
€1m
SB (5)
€1m
SGI (6)
€1m
SA (5)
€1m
AW (5)
€1m
RWI (4)
€1m
Admira Wacker's midfield is €1m less valuable than First Vienna's (€1m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
RIE (9)
€3m
AW (11)
€2m
AL (9)
€2m
FV (9)
€2m
SGI (9)
€2m
FL (7)
€2m
SSP (8)
€1m
RWI (8)
€1m
SA (8)
€1m
SB (8)
€1m
FA (7)
€1m
SK (10)
€1m
Admira Wacker and First Vienna have a similar defence value (both €2m).
Austria: 2. Liga 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Austria: 2. Liga stats & trends →