AEK Athens FC are tipped to secure a home win, the most likely outcome according to the model, with a 58% chance of victory, a 25% chance of a draw, and a 17% chance of an Aris Thessalonikis win. The match is expected to see 2.7 goals on average, with the most probable total being two goals at 26%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 11.9% probability, a tidy reflection of the balanced nature of the contest.
At home, AEK have been prolific, scoring an average of 2.11 goals and conceding just 0.67 against weaker opposition. Aris, meanwhile, have struggled away, netting only 1.0 goal per game while conceding 3.0 against stronger teams. The model’s selections highlight a heavy bias toward low scoring: Under 7.5 goals at 99.6%, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.4%, and Away under 2.5 goals at 96.6% with a 6% edge. Other picks include Under 6.5 at 98.6% (edge 5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.4%, Over 19.5 fouls at 98.1%, and Home +2 handicap at 96.2% (edge 1%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win
56.9%
Avg Implied 68.2% · @ 1.37
Edge
-11.3%
Best 5 market prices
Unibet
1.41
Betano
1.40
1xBet
1.37
William Hil
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Draw
25.3%
Avg Implied 19.9% · @ 4.68
Edge
+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
4.93
Dafabet
4.80
Betfair
4.75
Marathonbet
4.70
1xBet
4.70
Aris Thessalonikis win
17.9%
Avg Implied 11.9% · @ 7.87
Edge
+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Betano
8.25
Marathonbet
8.10
Pinnacle
8.06
1xBet
8.05
Dafabet
8.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.31
0.69
1.36
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.67
0.50
2.57
0.71
0.40
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
2.00
0.83
2.11
0.67
1.89
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
1.00
1.44
0.94
1.21
1.07
vs Stronger (5)
0.60
1.00
0.50
0.50
1.00
3.00
vs Similar (8)
1.50
1.62
1.50
1.25
1.50
2.00
vs Weaker (17)
1.47
0.71
1.88
1.00
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
76.2%
@ 1.22+0.2%
Under 1.5
23.8%
@ 3.86-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
Under
Pinnacle
3.99
Betano
3.95
Marathonbet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Unibet
3.65
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
50.6%
@ 1.75-3.4%
Under 2.5
49.4%
@ 2.05+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.78
Unibet
1.78
1xBet
1.73
Pinnacle
1.73
Marathonbet
1.73
Under
Pinnacle
2.11
Betano
2.10
Marathonbet
2.07
1xBet
2.07
Unibet
1.90
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
28.5%
@ 2.83-4.2%
Under 3.5
71.5%
@ 1.38+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
3.00
Betano
2.90
Pinnacle
2.88
1xBet
2.68
Marathonbet
2.68
Under
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.32
Both teams to score
Yes
50.9%
@ 1.99+4.2%
No
49.1%
@ 1.74-4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Unibet
2.02
Betano
2.00
1xBet
1.98
Marathonbet
1.98
William Hil
1.95
No
William Hil
1.80
Betano
1.75
1xBet
1.74
Marathonbet
1.72
Unibet
1.68
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%@ 8.28+6.7%
1-0
10.9%@ 6.23+3.8%
2-0
10.7%@ 6.26+3.7%
2-1
9.8%@ 7.62+4.0%
0-0
7.8%@ 11.67+4.0%
3-0
6.4%@ 8.50+1.2%
3-1
5.8%@ 10.58+1.6%
0-1
5.0%@ 17.25+2.5%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
Aris Thessalonikis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.8%
5.0%
2.8%
0.9%
0.2%
1
11%
12%
5.0%
1.5%
0.3%
2
11%
9.8%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
6.4%
5.8%
2.7%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.9%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = Aris Thessalonikis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
Iraklis 1908
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Kalamata
1.03
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
AEK Athens FC is 0.85 points better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Kalamata
0.99
AEK Athens FC is 0.68 goals better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.08).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Iraklis 1908
1.48
Levadiakos
1.50
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI
1.72
Kalamata
1.75
AEK Athens FC is 0.44 goals better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of goals conceded per game (0.62 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
AEK Athens FC is 6.1 percentage points better than Aris Thessalonikis in terms of average possession (57% vs 51%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
For 5.3 · Against 2.6 · Total 7.9
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 4.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.3 · Against 13.8 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris Thessalonikis
For 5.7 · Against 3.1 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.9 · Against 2.6 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 16.6 · Against 12.9 · Total 29.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.6
8.0
9.2
4.8
4.4
5.2
29.6
30.0
29.2
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
8.4
7.8
9.0
5.4
5.1
5.6
28.7
30.6
27.0
vs Weaker (33)
8.8
8.2
9.3
4.5
4.0
5.1
30.1
29.6
30.6
% over line
36%
32%
39%
76%
68%
84%
96%
95%
96%
% under line
64%
68%
61%
24%
32%
16%
4%
5%
4%
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.1
8.9
4.6
5.3
3.9
29.7
29.4
29.9
vs Stronger (7)
10.2
9.7
10.7
4.6
5.2
3.7
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (14)
8.1
8.0
8.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
31.1
30.8
31.3
vs Weaker (29)
9.1
9.4
8.8
4.8
5.9
3.8
30.5
30.2
30.9
% over line
51%
55%
48%
66%
67%
65%
95%
95%
95%
% under line
49%
45%
52%
34%
33%
35%
5%
5%
5%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Asteras Tripolis
9.4
Kifisia
9.2
Aris Thessalonikis
9.1
Atromitos
8.9
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.9
PAOK
8.8
OFI
8.8
AEK Athens FC
8.7
Panetolikos
8.6
Panathinaikos
8.6
Levadiakos
8.6
Volos NFC
8.5
Kalamata
8.3
Iraklis 1908
4.7
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Kalamata
6.3
Levadiakos
5.6
Volos NFC
5.6
Panetolikos
5.5
Asteras Tripolis
5.5
AEK Athens FC
5.4
OFI
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.2
Panathinaikos
5.1
Atromitos
4.9
Iraklis 1908
4.7
PAOK
4.6
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.4
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Iraklis 1908
38.0
Kalamata
37.5
Kifisia
32.3
Atromitos
30.8
Levadiakos
30.6
Volos NFC
30.5
AEK Athens FC
29.3
OFI
28.8
Aris Thessalonikis
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.2
Asteras Tripolis
27.8
Panetolikos
27.1
PAOK
25.2
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
32.9%
@ 1.72-19.3%
Under 9.5
67.1%
@ 1.88+19.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
1.72
Under
Unibet
1.88
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.3%
Under 3.5
25.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
95.2%
Under 21.5
4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AEK Athens FC or Draw
87.1%
Avg Implied 87.6% · @ 1.07
Edge
-0.6%
57%
25%
18%
covers AEK Athens FC + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
AEK Athens FC or Aris Thessalonikis
75.6%
Avg Implied 80.4% · @ 1.17
Edge
-4.8%
57%
25%
18%
covers AEK Athens FC + Aris Thessalonikis
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
Draw or Aris Thessalonikis
37.3%
Avg Implied 32.0% · @ 2.94
Edge
+5.4%
57%
25%
18%
covers Draw + Aris Thessalonikis
Best 5 market prices
Betfair
3.10
Betano
3.05
Marathonbet
2.98
1xBet
2.98
William Hil
2.90
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5
Over
83.4%
@ 1.07-2.3%
Under
16.6%
@ 6.42+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Under
1xBet
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Betano
6.10
Unibet
5.60
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5
Over
53.7%
@ 1.50-8.7%
Under
46.3%
@ 2.48+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.52
Unibet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.49
Under
Betfair
2.63
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.49
Betano
2.45
1xBet
2.40
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5
Over
26.9%
@ 2.57-9.2%
Under
73.1%
@ 1.45+9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
2.63
Unibet
2.63
Pinnacle
2.62
Betano
2.55
Marathonbet
2.52
Under
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
AEK Athens FC over/under 3.5
Over
10.8%
@ 4.75-8.7%
Under
89.2%
@ 1.15+8.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
5.00
Betano
4.75
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5
Over
50.3%
@ 1.78-1.7%
Under
49.7%
@ 1.93+1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.80
1xBet
1.80
Unibet
1.79
Marathonbet
1.78
Pinnacle
1.77
Under
Betfair
2.00
Pinnacle
2.00
Betano
1.93
1xBet
1.90
Marathonbet
1.90
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5
Over
15.6%
@ 4.84-3.5%
Under
84.4%
@ 1.14+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.25
Betfair
5.00
Unibet
4.80
Betano
4.65
1xBet
4.50
Under
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5
Over
3.4%
@ 10.25-5.7%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.25
Under
Betano
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 3.5
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AEK Athens FC, so a minus line means AEK Athens FC give that many goals of a start and Aris Thessalonikis receive them. At -1, AEK Athens FC must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AEK Athens FC win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AEK Athens FC)
AEK Athens FC -2
17.6%
@ 3.67-6.7%
Draw -2
19.8%
@ 4.05-2.1%
Aris Thessalonikis +2
62.6%
@ 1.66+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
3.75
Betfair
3.75
Marathonbet
3.50
Draw
Betfair
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Unibet
3.80
Away
Betfair
1.67
Marathonbet
1.67
Unibet
1.63
Handicap -1 (AEK Athens FC)
AEK Athens FC -1
37.4%
@ 2.03-6.1%
Draw -1
25.2%
@ 3.38-0.9%
Aris Thessalonikis +1
37.3%
@ 2.91+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Unibet
2.08
Marathonbet
2.00
Betfair
2.00
Draw
Marathonbet
3.48
Betfair
3.40
Unibet
3.25
Away
Betfair
3.00
Marathonbet
2.98
Unibet
2.75
Handicap +1 (AEK Athens FC)
AEK Athens FC +1
87.1%
@ 1.06+0.3%
Draw +1
9.2%
@ 10.00-0.0%
Aris Thessalonikis -1
3.8%
@ 23.00-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.06
Draw
Betfair
10.00
Away
Betfair
23.00
Handicap +2 (AEK Athens FC)
AEK Athens FC +2
96.2%
@ 1.01+0.9%
Draw +2
3.0%
@ 26.00-0.7%
Aris Thessalonikis -2
0.8%
@ 101.00-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
1.01
Draw
Betfair
26.00
Away
Betfair
101.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.37
0.88
0.38
0.57
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
0.50
0.17
0.71
0.29
0.20
0.00
vs Weaker (18)
0.89
0.50
1.00
0.44
0.78
0.56
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.75
0.38
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (5)
0.40
0.60
0.25
0.25
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.75
vs Weaker (17)
0.71
0.24
0.88
0.38
0.56
0.11
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
74.9%
@ 1.32+4.4%
Under 0.5
25.1%
@ 3.15-4.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
Under
Betfair
3.30
Pinnacle
3.28
William Hil
3.20
Marathonbet
3.10
Betano
3.10
Half Time Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
37.3%
@ 2.55+0.8%
Under 1.5
62.7%
@ 1.47-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.62
Pinnacle
2.60
Unibet
2.55
Betfair
2.55
1xBet
2.53
Under
William Hil
1.50
Betano
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Half Time Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
14.8%
@ 6.02-0.6%
Under 2.5
85.2%
@ 1.09+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
6.50
William Hil
6.00
Betano
5.90
1xBet
5.85
Marathonbet
5.85
Under
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
59.9%
@ 1.54-0.5%
Under
40.1%
@ 2.35+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.57
Unibet
1.55
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.51
Under
Pinnacle
2.48
1xBet
2.37
Betano
2.30
Unibet
2.25
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
25.7%
@ 3.54-0.4%
Under
74.3%
@ 1.25+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.65
Marathonbet
3.56
1xBet
3.40
Under
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
6.0%
@ 9.10-4.1%
Under
94.0%
@ 1.03+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.70
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 HT
Over
30.7%
@ 3.23+2.0%
Under
69.3%
@ 1.30-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.55
Unibet
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Betano
3.20
1xBet
2.90
Under
1xBet
1.35
Betano
1.32
Unibet
1.28
Marathonbet
1.28
Pinnacle
1.26
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 HT
Over
5.7%
@ 10.00-3.6%
Under
94.3%
@ 1.03+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
10.00
Under
Betano
1.03
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.6%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
0.33
1.44
0.31
0.79
0.36
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (12)
1.17
0.33
1.86
0.43
0.20
0.20
vs Weaker (18)
1.11
0.33
1.11
0.22
1.11
0.44
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris Thessalonikis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris Thessalonikis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
0.69
0.56
0.64
0.64
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.40
0.25
0.25
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (8)
0.75
1.00
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.25
vs Weaker (17)
0.76
0.47
1.00
0.62
0.56
0.33
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5
Over 0.5
80.4%
@ 1.19+2.5%
Under 0.5
19.6%
@ 4.20-2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
Under
Betano
4.30
Marathonbet
4.30
1xBet
4.30
William Hil
3.90
Second Half Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
46.6%
@ 1.96-0.9%
Under 1.5
53.4%
@ 1.78+0.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Unibet
2.00
William Hil
2.00
1xBet
1.94
Marathonbet
1.94
Betano
1.93
Under
Betano
1.85
1xBet
1.81
Marathonbet
1.81
William Hil
1.73
Unibet
1.68
Second Half Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
23.1%
@ 3.92-0.5%
Under 2.5
76.9%
@ 1.22+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
4.20
Marathonbet
3.85
1xBet
3.85
Betano
3.80
Under
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
70.7%
@ 1.36+2.3%
Under
29.3%
@ 2.95-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
Under
Betano
3.00
1xBet
2.90
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
31.6%
@ 2.61-3.9%
Under
68.4%
@ 1.44+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.65
Marathonbet
2.61
Betano
2.57
Under
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.42
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
8.2%
@ 6.10-7.0%
Under
91.8%
@ 1.09+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.50
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 0.5 2H
Over
37.6%
@ 2.57+1.6%
Under
62.4%
@ 1.45-1.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.64
Betano
2.60
1xBet
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.45
Marathonbet
1.41
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 1.5 2H
Over
7.4%
@ 9.35-2.6%
Under
92.6%
@ 1.04+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.75
1xBet
9.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
Aris Thessalonikis over/under 2.5 2H
Over
1.5%
Under
98.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
98.6%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+5.2%
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 19.5 fouls
98.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+5.7%
Home +2 handicap
96.2%
1.01
Betfair
1.01
-
-
-
-
+0.9%
Under 5.5
95.8%
1.06
Betano
1.06
-
-
-
-
+6.1%
Over 21.5 fouls
95.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 HT goals
94.3%
1.03
Betano
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
Home under 2.5 HT goals
94.0%
1.03
Betano
1.05
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.1%
Away under 1.5 2H goals
92.6%
1.04
Betano
1.06
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-
+2.6%
Home under 2.5 2H goals
91.8%
1.09
Betano
1.12
1xBet
1.07
-
-
-
+7.0%
Over 23.5 fouls
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
89.2%
1.15
Betano
1.16
1xBet
1.15
Betfair
1.14
-
-
+8.7%
Under 4.5
89.2%
1.12
Betano
1.17
Pinnacle
1.14
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
Unibet
1.09
+6.7%
Over 2.5 cards
88.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
87.1%
1.07
Betano
1.10
William Hil
1.08
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.06
-0.6%
Home +1 handicap
87.1%
1.06
Betfair
1.06
-
-
-
-
+0.3%
Under 11.5 corners
86.0%
1.33
Unibet
1.33
-
-
-
-
+18.2%
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.2%
1.09
Betano
1.12
William Hil
1.11
Betfair
1.08
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
+0.6%
Away under 1.5 goals
84.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
1xBet
1.15
Marathonbet
1.14
Betfair
1.14
Unibet
1.11
+3.5%
Home over 0.5 goals
83.4%
1.07
Betano
1.10
Betfair
1.07
Unibet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
-
-2.3%
Over 25.5 fouls
80.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
80.4%
1.19
William Hil
1.22
Betano
1.21
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+2.5%
Under 10.5 corners
77.8%
1.54
Unibet
1.54
-
-
-
-
+19.5%
Under 2.5 2H goals
76.9%
1.22
Betano
1.26
William Hil
1.20
Marathonbet
1.20
1xBet
1.20
-
+0.5%
Over 1.5
76.2%
1.22
Betano
1.25
Pinnacle
1.24
Unibet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.18
1xBet
1.18
+0.2%
Home or Away
75.6%
1.17
Betano
1.18
William Hil
1.18
Betfair
1.17
Unibet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.16
-4.8%
Over 0.5 HT goals
74.9%
1.32
Betano
1.38
Unibet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.32
1xBet
1.32
Pinnacle
1.31
+4.4%
Home under 1.5 HT goals
74.3%
1.25
Betano
1.26
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.24
-
-
+0.4%
Over 3.5 cards
74.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
73.1%
1.45
Marathonbet
1.49
1xBet
1.48
Betano
1.47
Pinnacle
1.45
Betfair
1.44
+9.2%
Under 3.5
71.5%
1.38
Betano
1.44
Pinnacle
1.40
Marathonbet
1.37
1xBet
1.37
Unibet
1.32
+4.2%
Home over 0.5 2H goals
70.7%
1.36
1xBet
1.36
Betano
1.36
-
-
-
+2.3%
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Athens FC
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Barnabás Varga67%
Luka Jović33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Răzvan Marin33%
Aboubakary Koita33%
Stavros Pilios33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Zini33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lovro Majer33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Filipe Relvas33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Zini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Răzvan Marin67%
Luka Jović33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
Aris Thessalonikis · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Benjamín Garré25%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Hongla15%
Dudu15%
Tino Kadewere12%
Fredrik Jensen11%
Gabriel Misehouy11%
Uroš Račić10%
Fabiano10%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Pedro Álvaro7%
Monchu6%
Giannis Gianniotas4%
Carles Pérez4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Álvaro Tejero0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Hamza Mendyl55%
Monchu33%
Tino Kadewere31%
Martin Hongla31%
Michalis Panagidis25%
Giorgos Athanasiadis21%
Lindsay Rose21%
Uroš Račić21%
Noah Fadiga17%
Giannis Gianniotas17%
Carles Pérez17%
Álvaro Tejero17%
Mamadou Gning17%
Loren Morón16%
Martin Frýdek16%
Fabiano14%
Noah Sonko Sundberg14%
Kostas Galanopoulos13%
Pedro Álvaro13%
Othmane Boussaid11%
Anastasios Donis8%
Christian Kouamé8%
Benjamín Garré8%
Fredrik Jensen6%
Dudu5%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Tino Kadewere19%
Christian Kouamé17%
Giannis Gianniotas13%
Álvaro Tejero10%
Dudu10%
Hamza Mendyl9%
Carles Pérez9%
Uroš Račić7%
Monchu6%
Martin Frýdek5%
Loren Morón4%
Noah Fadiga0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Fabiano0%
Migouel Alfarela0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Tino Kadewere25%
Loren Morón24%
Migouel Alfarela20%
Christian Kouamé17%
Carles Pérez13%
Monchu11%
Dudu5%
Fabiano5%
Uroš Račić3%
Álvaro Tejero3%
Noah Fadiga0%
Hamza Mendyl0%
Kostas Galanopoulos0%
Giannis Gianniotas0%
Fredrik Jensen0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Sokratis Dioudis0%
Giorgos Athanasiadis0%
Othmane Boussaid0%
Pedro Álvaro0%
Olimpiu Moruțan0%
Pione Sisto0%
Noah Sonko Sundberg0%
Martin Frýdek0%
Martin Hongla0%
Lindsay Rose0%
Benjamín Garré0%
Gabriel Misehouy0%
Michalis Panagidis0%
Mamadou Gning0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
AT (27)
€41m
OFI (24)
€18m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
KAL (28)
€11m
VN (25)
€10m
KIF (27)
€10m
I1 (25)
€9m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €44m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€85m vs €41m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
AT (13)
€22m
PAN (11)
€7m
OFI (6)
€6m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
KIF (10)
€4m
KAL (8)
€4m
VN (8)
€4m
ATR (7)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €22m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€44m vs €22m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
AT (5)
€7m
LEV (4)
€5m
OFI (5)
€3m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
KAL (6)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
KIF (6)
€2m
VN (5)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €8m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€16m vs €7m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
AT (9)
€12m
OFI (13)
€8m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
VN (12)
€5m
LEV (9)
€5m
KAL (14)
€5m
KIF (11)
€4m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €14m more valuable than Aris Thessalonikis's (€26m vs €12m).
Greece: Super League 1 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
PAOK
Panetolikos
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
OFI
Kifisia
Volos NFC
Iraklis 1908
Atromitos
Kalamata
Asteras Tripolis
Levadiakos