AEK Athens FC are the clear favourites, the model giving them a 66% chance of victory, a 23% draw and a 12% chance for Iraklis 1908 to win. The higher home-side probability reflects AEK’s strong home form, scoring an average of 2.42 goals and conceding only 0.58 when facing weaker opponents, while Iraklis, playing away against stronger teams, averages just 0.5 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. The expected total is 2.6 goals, with the most likely total being 2 goals at 26%. The single most probable scoreline is 2-0 for AEK, with a 13.5% chance. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 at 74.9% and Under 3.5 at 72.8%. AEK’s recent unbeaten run of five matches, ending in a 1-1 draw, and Iraklis’ recent draw after a winless streak add context to the predicted outcome.
Results analysis
The unexpected draw stunned the pre-match favourite, AEK Athens FC, who had been unbeaten in their last five matches and were tipped to win with a 66% probability. The final score was 0-0, a result that left the model’s call of a home win incorrect. The model’s other selections also fell short: the Over 1.5 goal pick, with a 74.9% chance, missed, while the Under 3.5 goal pick, at 72.8%, hit. The match ended in a stalemate, with both teams failing to score, confirming the model’s predictions were off for the outcome and the total-goals market.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
65.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
22.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 win✗ Miss
11.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.73
2.13
0.47
0.93
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (24)
1.75
0.67
2.42
0.58
1.08
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+17pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.17
0.93
0.80
0.80
1.53
vs Stronger (9)
0.89
2.11
1.20
1.60
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (12)
0.67
1.08
0.60
0.60
0.71
1.43
vs Weaker (9)
1.11
0.33
1.00
0.20
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+4pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
74.9%
Under 1.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
49.0%
Under 2.5
51.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
27.2%
Under 3.5
72.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
43.9%
No
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
13.5%
1-0
12.9%
1-1
10.7%
2-1
9.4%
3-0
8.7%
0-0 ✓
8.1%
3-1
6.1%
4-0
4.2%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
Iraklis 1908 goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.1%
4.0%
1.7%
0.4%
0.1%
1
13%
11%
3.4%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
9.4%
3.3%
0.8%
0.1%
3
8.7%
6.1%
2.1%
0.5%
0.1%
4
4.2%
2.9%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = Iraklis 1908 goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.23
PAOK
2.13
Panathinaikos
1.90
AEK Athens FC
1.77
Panionios
1.73
Xanthi FC
1.60
Platanias
1.40
Atromitos
1.30
PAS Giannina
1.20
Kerkyra
1.07
Panetolikos
1.03
Iraklis 1908
0.97
Larisa
0.93
Asteras Tripolis
0.93
Levadiakos
0.87
Veria
0.73
AEK Athens FC is 0.80 points better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of average points per game (1.77 vs 0.97).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.90
AEK Athens FC
1.80
PAOK
1.73
Panathinaikos
1.50
Panionios
1.17
Xanthi FC
1.13
Platanias
1.13
Asteras Tripolis
1.13
PAS Giannina
1.00
Panetolikos
0.97
Atromitos
0.97
Iraklis 1908
0.93
Levadiakos
0.90
Larisa
0.77
Veria
0.77
Kerkyra
0.73
AEK Athens FC is 0.87 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals scored per game (1.80 vs 0.93).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.53
PAOK
0.63
Panathinaikos
0.63
Panionios
0.77
AEK Athens FC
0.77
Xanthi FC
0.83
PAS Giannina
1.23
Atromitos
1.27
Platanias
1.27
Iraklis 1908
1.30
Panetolikos
1.33
Larisa
1.40
Kerkyra
1.43
Asteras Tripolis
1.63
Levadiakos
1.63
Veria
1.87
AEK Athens FC is 0.53 goals better than Iraklis 1908 in terms of goals conceded per game (0.77 vs 1.30).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Iraklis 1908
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (26)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (32)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (9)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (13)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (10)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.27
1.13
0.20
0.33
0.33
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.17
0.17
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.29
1.33
0.25
0.42
0.33
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.60
0.33
0.27
0.80
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
0.89
0.80
0.60
0.00
1.25
vs Similar (12)
0.25
0.58
0.20
0.20
0.29
0.86
vs Weaker (9)
0.67
0.22
0.80
0.20
0.50
0.25
Clean sheet %
53% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.27
0.60
0.67
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.83
0.67
0.00
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (24)
0.88
0.38
1.08
0.33
0.67
0.42
Clean sheet %
67% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Iraklis 1908) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Iraklis 1908
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.33
0.47
0.53
0.73
vs Stronger (9)
0.44
1.22
0.40
1.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (12)
0.42
0.50
0.40
0.40
0.43
0.57
vs Weaker (9)
0.44
0.11
0.20
0.00
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
57% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Iraklis 1908 over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
72.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Athens FC · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Barnabás Varga67%
Luka Jović33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Răzvan Marin33%
Aboubakary Koita33%
Stavros Pilios33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Zini33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lovro Majer33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Filipe Relvas33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Zini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Răzvan Marin67%
Luka Jović33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
I1 (25)
€9m
PAN (24)
€5m
LAR (23)
€5m
PG (36)
€4m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €76m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€85m vs €9m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
PAN (11)
€7m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
LAR (7)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €41m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€44m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
LAR (3)
€1m
PG (7)
€1m
PAN (1)
€0m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €13m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€16m vs €3m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
LEV (9)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
LAR (13)
€2m
PAN (10)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €22m more valuable than Iraklis 1908's (€26m vs €4m).
Greece: Super League 1 2016/17 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
PAOK
Panathinaikos
Panionios
Xanthi FC
Atromitos
PAS Giannina
Panetolikos
Asteras Tripolis
Larisa
Levadiakos
Veria