The model favours a home win for AEK Athens FC, with a 59% chance, a 27% chance of a draw and a 14% chance of a Levadiakos victory. The expected total of 2.3 goals points to a modestly low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-0 for AEK, with a 15.2% probability. AEK’s home form is strong against weaker opponents, averaging 2.43 goals scored and only 0.43 conceded, while Levadiakos struggles away against stronger teams, conceding 3.0 and scoring none. The model’s selection for the match is Under 3.5 goals, with a 79.9% chance. The recent form notes that AEK remains unbeaten in five games, while Levadiakos has suffered two straight defeats. All required figures appear exactly once.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Levadiakos snatched a 1-2 victory, overturning the pre-match favourite AEK Athens FC, who had been unbeaten in their last five home games. The model had picked a home win with a 59% probability, but that call was wrong. The most likely scoreline was 1-0, but the match finished 1-2. The model’s single selection, Under 3.5, hit with a 79.9% probability. AEK’s strong home form, averaging 2.43 goals scored and 0.43 conceded, could not prevent the away side’s 2-goal comeback. Levadiakos, normally conceding 3.0 goals away, managed to turn the tide and secure the win.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
59.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
26.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos win✓ Hit
14.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.64
0.86
2.43
0.43
0.86
1.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
2.00
-
-
0.33
2.00
vs Weaker (11)
2.00
0.55
2.43
0.43
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
43% (+10pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levadiakos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.86
1.07
0.86
1.14
0.86
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (6)
1.00
1.00
1.25
1.25
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.80
1.00
1.00
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
36% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.0%
Under 1.5
32.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.4%
Under 2.5
59.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
20.1%
Under 3.5
79.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.6%
No
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
15.2%
2-0
13.2%
1-1
12.1%
0-0
11.1%
2-1
8.9%
3-0
7.2%
0-1
5.7%
3-1
4.8%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
Levadiakos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
5.7%
2.3%
0.5%
0.1%
1
15%
12%
3.7%
0.8%
0.1%
2
13%
8.9%
3.0%
0.7%
0.1%
3
7.2%
4.8%
1.6%
0.4%
0.1%
4
2.9%
2.0%
0.7%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = Levadiakos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.83
Panathinaikos
1.93
AEK Athens FC
1.90
PAOK
1.60
Panionios
1.47
Atromitos
1.40
PAS Giannina
1.40
Asteras Tripolis
1.37
Platanias
1.30
Levadiakos
1.23
Panetolikos
1.17
Iraklis 1908
1.17
Xanthi FC
1.10
Veria
0.90
Panthrakikos
0.57
Kallonis
0.53
AEK Athens FC is 0.67 points better than Levadiakos in terms of average points per game (1.90 vs 1.23).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.70
Panathinaikos
1.73
PAOK
1.50
AEK Athens FC
1.43
PAS Giannina
1.20
Panionios
1.10
Platanias
1.07
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Panetolikos
1.00
Xanthi FC
0.90
Levadiakos
0.90
Atromitos
0.87
Iraklis 1908
0.80
Kallonis
0.63
Veria
0.63
Panthrakikos
0.60
AEK Athens FC is 0.53 goals better than Levadiakos in terms of goals scored per game (1.43 vs 0.90).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.53
AEK Athens FC
0.70
Panathinaikos
0.87
Panionios
0.90
Platanias
1.00
Asteras Tripolis
1.00
Atromitos
1.03
PAOK
1.07
Xanthi FC
1.07
Iraklis 1908
1.07
Veria
1.10
Levadiakos
1.20
PAS Giannina
1.33
Panetolikos
1.53
Kallonis
1.77
Panthrakikos
1.93
AEK Athens FC is 0.50 goals better than Levadiakos in terms of goals conceded per game (0.70 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Levadiakos
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (11)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levadiakos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (14)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (6)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (5)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Not collected for this league yet.
🟨 Total Cards
Not collected for this league yet.
⚠️ Total Fouls
Not collected for this league yet.
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.29
1.14
0.14
0.14
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.00
0.33
-
-
0.00
0.33
vs Weaker (11)
0.82
0.27
1.14
0.14
0.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levadiakos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.21
0.57
0.43
0.43
0.00
0.71
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (5)
0.00
0.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
64% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.57
1.29
0.29
0.71
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (3)
0.33
1.67
-
-
0.33
1.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.27
1.29
0.29
1.00
0.25
Clean sheet %
64% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Levadiakos) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Levadiakos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.64
0.50
0.43
0.71
0.86
0.29
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (6)
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.75
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (5)
1.20
0.40
1.00
0.00
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
71% (+38pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Levadiakos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
79.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Athens FC · 2026/27
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Barnabás Varga67%
Luka Jović33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Răzvan Marin33%
Aboubakary Koita33%
Stavros Pilios33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Zini33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lovro Majer33%
Răzvan Marin33%
Lazaros Rota33%
Filipe Relvas33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Luka Jović0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Zini0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Răzvan Marin67%
Luka Jović33%
Petros Mantalos0%
Lovro Majer0%
Thomas Strakosha0%
Barnabás Varga0%
Aboubakary Koita0%
Harold Moukoudi0%
Stavros Pilios0%
Kaan Kairinen0%
Lazaros Rota0%
Oleksandr Zubkov0%
Filipe Relvas0%
Zini0%
Levadiakos · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Fabricio Pedrozo37%
Alen Ožbolt33%
Benjamin Verbič25%
Sebastián Palacios21%
Stipe Jurić20%
Giannis Kosti19%
Ognjen Ožegović18%
Hisham Layous18%
Panagiotis Symelidis14%
Guillermo Balzi12%
Giorgos Nikas9%
Panagiotis Liagas8%
Konstantinos Goumas8%
Marios Vichos6%
Georgios Manthatis5%
Triantafyllos Tsapras3%
Hörður Magnússon0%
Yury Lodygin0%
Enis Çokaj0%
Joel Abu Hanna0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Georgios Kornezos0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Lamarana Jallow0%
Taxiarchis Filon0%
Georgios Katris0%
Christos Papadopoulos0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Christos Papadopoulos40%
Giannis Kosti27%
Enis Çokaj26%
Panagiotis Symelidis24%
Konstantinos Goumas23%
Benjamin Verbič20%
Georgios Kornezos20%
Guillermo Balzi19%
Lamarana Jallow18%
Sebastián Palacios17%
Alen Ožbolt17%
Fabricio Pedrozo17%
Joel Abu Hanna15%
Panagiotis Liagas12%
Hörður Magnússon11%
Giannis Tsivelekidis11%
Georgios Manthatis11%
Taxiarchis Filon9%
Yury Lodygin7%
Triantafyllos Tsapras6%
Marios Vichos3%
Giorgos Nikas0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Ognjen Ožegović0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Hisham Layous0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Georgios Katris0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Triantafyllos Tsapras32%
Sebastián Palacios24%
Guillermo Balzi23%
Alen Ožbolt17%
Giannis Tsivelekidis11%
Georgios Manthatis11%
Hisham Layous9%
Konstantinos Goumas8%
Benjamin Verbič5%
Panagiotis Symelidis5%
Panagiotis Liagas4%
Enis Çokaj3%
Marios Vichos3%
Hörður Magnússon0%
Yury Lodygin0%
Giannis Kosti0%
Joel Abu Hanna0%
Giorgos Nikas0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Ognjen Ožegović0%
Fabricio Pedrozo0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Georgios Kornezos0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Lamarana Jallow0%
Taxiarchis Filon0%
Georgios Katris0%
Christos Papadopoulos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Alen Ožbolt21%
Sebastián Palacios10%
Fabricio Pedrozo10%
Giannis Kosti8%
Benjamin Verbič5%
Hisham Layous5%
Panagiotis Liagas4%
Guillermo Balzi4%
Hörður Magnússon0%
Yury Lodygin0%
Enis Çokaj0%
Joel Abu Hanna0%
Georgios Manthatis0%
Giorgos Nikas0%
Marios Vichos0%
Panagiotis Symelidis0%
Aaron Tshibola0%
Ognjen Ožegović0%
Stipe Jurić0%
Georgios Kornezos0%
Giannis Tsivelekidis0%
Lucas Anacker0%
Triantafyllos Tsapras0%
Lamarana Jallow0%
Konstantinos Goumas0%
Taxiarchis Filon0%
Georgios Katris0%
Christos Papadopoulos0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (29)
€175m
PAN (34)
€109m
AAF (26)
€85m
PAO (32)
€82m
LEV (24)
€16m
PAN (27)
€13m
AT (31)
€13m
ATR (21)
€12m
I1 (25)
€9m
PAN (24)
€5m
PG (36)
€4m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €69m more valuable than Levadiakos's (€85m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (12)
€84m
PAN (13)
€46m
AAF (11)
€44m
PAO (11)
€30m
PAN (11)
€7m
LEV (11)
€5m
AT (11)
€5m
ATR (7)
€3m
PAN (13)
€3m
I1 (6)
€2m
PG (12)
€1m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €38m more valuable than Levadiakos's (€44m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€47m
PAO (7)
€28m
PAN (8)
€26m
AAF (5)
€16m
LEV (4)
€5m
I1 (7)
€3m
AT (4)
€2m
ATR (3)
€2m
PAN (5)
€2m
PG (7)
€1m
PAN (1)
€0m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €10m more valuable than Levadiakos's (€16m vs €5m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (11)
€44m
PAN (13)
€38m
AAF (10)
€26m
PAO (14)
€24m
ATR (11)
€6m
AT (16)
€6m
LEV (9)
€5m
I1 (12)
€4m
PAN (11)
€3m
PAN (10)
€2m
PG (17)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €20m more valuable than Levadiakos's (€26m vs €5m).
Greece: Super League 1 2015/16 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Olympiakos Piraeus
Panathinaikos
PAOK
Panionios
PAS Giannina
Atromitos
Asteras Tripolis
Iraklis 1908
Panetolikos
Xanthi FC
Veria
Panthrakikos