Pythia gives AEK Athens FC a 37% win probability against Olympiakos Piraeus in the Greece: Super League 1 on 2026-05-17, with 34% for the draw and 29% for Olympiakos Piraeus. The model estimates around 2.0 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (28%) and 0-0 the most likely scoreline (15.0%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Under 11.5 corners (90%), Over 2.5 cards (88%).
Results analysis
AEK Athens FC finished 1-1 against Olympiakos Piraeus (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 37% home win, 34% draw and 29% away win. Picks that landed: Over 19.5 fouls (96%), Over 21.5 fouls (91%), Under 11.5 corners (90%), Over 2.5 cards (88%), Under 3.5 (86%), Under 10.5 corners (83%), Over 23.5 fouls (82%), Over 3.5 cards (75%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Athens FC win✗ Miss
37.2%
Avg Implied 30.2% · @ 3.01
Edge
+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
33.5%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.15
Edge
+4.7%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus win✗ Miss
29.3%
Avg Implied 40.9% · @ 2.22
Edge
-11.6%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Athens FC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.03
0.77
2.27
0.73
1.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
1.75
0.50
3.00
0.33
1.00
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
2.25
0.90
2.18
0.82
2.33
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.53
1.33
0.53
1.73
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.75
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
1.62
0.50
1.38
0.46
1.85
0.54
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
60.4%
Under 1.5
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
32.0%
@ 2.06-12.9%
Under 2.5
68.0%
@ 1.68+12.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
14.1%
Under 3.5
85.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
40.8%
No
59.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.0%
1-1 ✓
14.8%
1-0
13.3%
0-1
11.2%
2-0
7.8%
2-1
7.2%
1-2
6.2%
0-2
5.8%
AEK Athens FC goals ↓
Olympiakos Piraeus goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
11%
5.8%
1.8%
0.4%
1
13%
15%
6.2%
1.9%
0.4%
2
7.8%
7.2%
3.3%
1.0%
0.2%
3
2.8%
2.6%
1.2%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Athens FC goals (down), columns = Olympiakos Piraeus goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Athens FC
2.29
Olympiakos Piraeus
2.12
PAOK
2.06
Panathinaikos
1.71
Levadiakos
1.61
Aris Thessalonikis
1.44
Atromitos
1.29
OFI Crete
1.22
OFI
1.22
Kifisia
1.18
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.79
Panserraikos
0.76
AEK Athens FC is 0.18 points better than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of average points per game (2.29 vs 2.12).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Levadiakos
2.00
PAOK
1.88
AEK Athens FC
1.76
Olympiakos Piraeus
1.68
Panathinaikos
1.56
Atromitos
1.39
OFI Crete
1.34
OFI
1.34
Kifisia
1.18
Aris Thessalonikis
1.08
Volos NFC
1.03
Panetolikos
1.03
Asteras Tripolis
1.03
Larisa
0.92
Panserraikos
0.66
AEK Athens FC is 0.09 goals better than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of goals scored per game (1.76 vs 1.68).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Olympiakos Piraeus
0.50
AEK Athens FC
0.62
PAOK
0.76
Panathinaikos
1.00
Aris Thessalonikis
1.06
Atromitos
1.18
Asteras Tripolis
1.39
Kifisia
1.42
Panetolikos
1.42
Levadiakos
1.50
Larisa
1.61
Volos NFC
1.67
OFI Crete
1.72
OFI
1.72
Panserraikos
2.03
AEK Athens FC is 0.12 goals worse than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of goals conceded per game (0.62 vs 0.50).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Olympiakos Piraeus
60%
PAOK
60%
AEK Athens FC
57%
Levadiakos
56%
Atromitos
53%
Panathinaikos
53%
Aris Thessalonikis
51%
Kifisia
48%
Volos NFC
46%
Larisa
46%
Panetolikos
46%
OFI
45%
Asteras Tripolis
45%
Panserraikos
37%
AEK Athens FC is 3.3 percentage points worse than Olympiakos Piraeus in terms of average possession (57% vs 60%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Athens FC
For 6.6 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.4 · Against 14.6 · Total 30.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Olympiakos Piraeus
For 5.0 · Against 1.4 · Total 6.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 11.4 · Total 24.4
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Athens FC
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
8.3
9.7
4.9
4.5
5.3
29.2
29.2
29.1
vs Stronger (3)
6.7
4.0
8.0
5.3
8.0
4.0
29.7
35.0
27.0
vs Similar (11)
9.1
8.4
9.7
5.9
4.4
7.2
30.0
31.0
29.2
vs Weaker (36)
9.2
8.6
9.9
4.6
4.3
4.8
28.8
28.3
29.3
% over line
42%
41%
43%
80%
72%
88%
96%
95%
96%
% under line
58%
59%
57%
20%
28%
12%
4%
5%
4%
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
10.0
7.6
3.6
3.1
4.0
24.6
23.4
25.8
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
8.0
9.0
4.5
3.0
6.0
18.0
19.0
17.0
vs Similar (6)
8.5
8.3
8.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
19.7
18.0
21.3
vs Weaker (42)
8.9
10.4
7.4
3.7
3.2
4.2
25.8
24.5
27.0
% over line
36%
45%
27%
44%
32%
56%
66%
64%
68%
% under line
64%
55%
73%
56%
68%
44%
34%
36%
32%
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Kifisia
9.7
Aris Thessalonikis
9.4
Asteras Tripolis
9.3
OFI
9.1
OFI Crete
9.1
AEK Athens FC
9.0
Atromitos
8.8
Panserraikos
8.7
Volos NFC
8.7
Larisa
8.7
Panetolikos
8.7
PAOK
8.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
8.6
Levadiakos
8.5
Panathinaikos
8.1
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Kifisia
6.6
Larisa
6.2
Panserraikos
6.0
OFI
5.8
OFI Crete
5.8
Volos NFC
5.8
AEK Athens FC
5.6
Asteras Tripolis
5.6
Levadiakos
5.4
Panetolikos
5.4
Panathinaikos
5.3
Aris Thessalonikis
5.1
Atromitos
4.9
PAOK
4.7
Olympiakos Piraeus
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Kifisia
32.5
Larisa
32.2
Volos NFC
30.7
Atromitos
30.6
Levadiakos
30.1
AEK Athens FC
29.6
OFI Crete
28.8
OFI
28.7
Panathinaikos
28.7
Aris Thessalonikis
28.3
Asteras Tripolis
27.6
Panserraikos
27.5
Panetolikos
27.3
Olympiakos Piraeus
25.3
PAOK
25.0
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
26.8%
Under 9.5
73.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
74.8%
Under 3.5
25.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.9%
Under 21.5
9.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.73
0.33
0.80
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
0.62
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.60
0.00
vs Weaker (20)
0.85
0.55
0.82
0.45
0.89
0.67
Clean sheet %
70% (+37pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.20
0.93
0.33
0.60
0.07
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Weaker (26)
0.81
0.23
0.92
0.38
0.69
0.08
Clean sheet %
83% (+50pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Athens FC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.40
1.53
0.40
1.00
0.40
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (8)
1.12
0.50
2.33
0.33
0.40
0.60
vs Weaker (20)
1.40
0.35
1.36
0.36
1.44
0.33
Clean sheet %
63% (+30pp vs league)
This opponent (Olympiakos Piraeus) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Olympiakos Piraeus
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.33
0.40
0.20
1.13
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
0.50
0.75
0.00
1.00
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (26)
0.81
0.27
0.46
0.08
1.15
0.46
Clean sheet %
77% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Athens FC) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Athens FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Athens FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Olympiakos Piraeus over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
96.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
85.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
82.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
82.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 3.5 cards
74.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
70.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (28)
€134m
PAO (34)
€96m
PAN (31)
€89m
AAF (32)
€82m
AT (31)
€40m
KIF (41)
€20m
OC (30)
€17m
PAN (35)
€16m
LEV (31)
€15m
ATR (30)
€15m
VN (37)
€12m
LAR (35)
€12m
PAN (33)
€10m
AEK Athens FC's squad is €53m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€82m vs €134m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAO (12)
€50m
PAN (12)
€44m
AAF (11)
€35m
OP (8)
€28m
AT (16)
€20m
KIF (18)
€11m
OC (11)
€8m
PAN (15)
€8m
ATR (13)
€6m
LEV (10)
€5m
VN (15)
€5m
LAR (14)
€5m
PAN (11)
€3m
AEK Athens FC's attack is €6m more valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€35m vs €28m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (6)
€48m
PAO (7)
€24m
PAN (8)
€23m
AAF (8)
€20m
AT (4)
€9m
ATR (5)
€4m
OC (6)
€4m
LEV (7)
€3m
PAN (6)
€3m
KIF (7)
€3m
PAN (7)
€3m
VN (5)
€2m
LAR (5)
€2m
AEK Athens FC's midfield is €27m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€20m vs €48m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
OP (14)
€59m
AAF (13)
€26m
PAO (15)
€23m
PAN (11)
€22m
AT (11)
€10m
LEV (14)
€7m
KIF (16)
€6m
OC (13)
€6m
VN (17)
€5m
LAR (16)
€5m
PAN (14)
€5m
ATR (12)
€5m
PAN (15)
€5m
AEK Athens FC's defence is €32m less valuable than Olympiakos Piraeus's (€26m vs €59m).
🤝 14. Games History
H2H record
8 previous meetings
2
AAF wins
1
Draws
5
OP wins
Head-to-head
AEK Athens FC vs Olympiakos Piraeus · H/A from AAF
Greece: Super League 1 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Greece: Super League 1 stats & trends →
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PAOK
Panathinaikos
Levadiakos
Aris Thessalonikis
Atromitos
Kifisia
OFI
Asteras Tripolis
Panetolikos
Volos NFC
Larisa
Panserraikos