AEK Athens FC vs PAOK Result & Analysis

AEK Athens FC are tipped to win, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 25% chance of a draw and a 24% chance of PAOK taking the victory. The match is expected to see three goals on average, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 11.7% probability. AEK, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, averages one goal scored and one conceded, while PAOK, on the road, averages 1.8 goals scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 90.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.0%, Over 1.5 goals at 81.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 81.1%, Over 3.5 cards at 77.8% and Under 11.5 corners at 73.4%. AEK’s recent form shows they have remained unbeaten in their last five matches, while PAOK come off a win and have been on a mixed run.

The upset came early, as the pre-match favourite AEK Athens FC, picked by the model with a 51% probability of winning, failed to secure the win, ending instead in a 2-2 draw. The model’s call was wrong. AEK’s recent form, unbeaten in their last five, had suggested resilience, yet PAOK, fresh from a win, matched them on the night. The model’s other selections all hit: over 19.5 fouls at 95.6%, over 21.5 fouls at 90.1%, over 2.5 cards at 90.0%, over 1.5 goals at 81.5%, over 23.5 fouls at 81.1%, over 3.5 cards at 77.8%, and under 11.5 corners at 73.4%. The match delivered on every predicted statistic, but not on the expected outcome.