This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.93
1.67
0.87
1.40
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
1.32
1.09
1.36
1.00
1.27
1.18
vs Weaker (8)
2.12
0.50
2.50
0.50
1.75
0.50
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
81.0%
Under 1.5
19.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
57.4%
Under 2.5
42.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
35.0%
Under 3.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
61.0%
No
39.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.3%
2-1
8.9%
1-2
7.8%
1-0
6.9%
2-0
6.4%
2-2
6.2%
0-0
6.2%
0-1
5.9%
AEK Larnaca goals ↓
Apoel Nicosia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.2%
5.9%
4.9%
2.3%
0.8%
1
6.9%
12%
7.8%
3.6%
1.3%
2
6.4%
8.9%
6.2%
2.9%
1.0%
3
3.4%
4.7%
3.3%
1.5%
0.5%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.3%
0.6%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Larnaca goals (down), columns = Apoel Nicosia goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia are level in average points per game (both 2.03).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
AEK Larnaca is 0.17 goals worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.75).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
AEK Larnaca is 0.19 goals worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.67).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
AEK Larnaca is 1.3 percentage points better than Apoel Nicosia in terms of average possession (52% vs 51%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEK Larnaca
For 6.0 · Against 4.2 · Total 10.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 3.1 · Total 5.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.7 · Total 25.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
For 5.3 · Against 4.3 · Total 9.6
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.7 · Against 2.8 · Total 6.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.2 · Total 28.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.1
4.4
4.9
3.9
27.1
27.6
26.6
vs Stronger (5)
8.0
10.7
4.0
4.8
6.3
2.5
25.6
30.0
19.0
vs Similar (27)
8.6
7.5
9.7
4.4
4.9
3.9
27.5
28.2
26.8
vs Weaker (18)
10.4
11.7
9.3
4.3
4.3
4.2
26.9
25.6
27.9
% over line
43%
50%
38%
66%
72%
60%
73%
86%
61%
% under line
57%
50%
62%
34%
28%
40%
27%
14%
39%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.5
9.2
8.0
4.6
4.3
4.9
29.6
29.4
29.8
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (31)
8.1
8.4
7.9
4.9
4.7
5.1
29.4
29.8
29.0
vs Weaker (19)
9.2
10.6
8.0
4.2
3.7
4.7
29.9
28.6
31.1
% over line
36%
45%
27%
70%
67%
73%
98%
100%
95%
% under line
64%
55%
73%
30%
33%
27%
2%
0%
5%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
12.0
Anorthosis
9.7
Karmiotissa
9.6
Nea Salamis
9.4
Aris
9.4
Apollon Limassol
9.3
Omonia Nicosia
9.2
AEK Larnaca
9.1
AEL
9.1
Pafos
8.9
Doxa
8.7
Apoel Nicosia
8.6
AE Zakakiou
8.5
Ethnikos Achna
8.1
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ethnikos Achna
5.9
Pafos
5.4
Apoel Nicosia
5.4
AE Zakakiou
5.2
Othellos
5.1
Nea Salamis
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.0
Doxa
5.0
Aris
4.9
AEK Larnaca
4.8
AEL
4.8
Anorthosis
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Karmiotissa
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.6
Doxa
28.2
Anorthosis
28.1
AEL
27.6
AEK Larnaca
27.1
Othellos
27.0
Ethnikos Achna
27.0
AE Zakakiou
26.9
Nea Salamis
26.9
Pafos
26.2
Aris
25.9
Apollon Limassol
25.8
Karmiotissa
25.7
Omonia Nicosia
23.7
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
45.0%
Under 9.5
55.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
81.8%
Under 3.5
18.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
89.8%
Under 21.5
10.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.73
1.07
0.93
0.50
0.56
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.50
0.38
0.62
0.42
0.42
vs Weaker (8)
1.88
1.12
2.40
1.20
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.73
0.60
0.73
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.68
0.68
0.55
0.73
0.82
0.64
vs Weaker (8)
0.88
0.12
1.25
0.25
0.50
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.77
0.79
0.36
0.19
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.75
0.75
0.25
0.17
1.08
vs Weaker (8)
0.75
0.62
1.00
0.60
0.33
0.67
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.40
0.93
0.27
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.41
0.82
0.27
0.45
0.55
vs Weaker (8)
1.25
0.38
1.25
0.25
1.25
0.50
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
81.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
80.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ67%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Apoel Nicosia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Dieumerci Ndongala33%
Giorgi Kvilitaia20%
Georgi Kostadinov20%
Marquinhos17%
Lasha Dvali17%
Radosav PetroviÄ0%
Georgios Efrem0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Saeid Mehri0%
Vid Belec0%
DÃĄlcio0%
TomanÃĐ0%
Issam Chebake0%
Lucas VillafÃĄÃąez0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Jefte Vital da Silva Dias0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Issam Chebake50%
Giorgi Kvilitaia40%
Radosav PetroviÄ33%
Marquinhos33%
Georgi Kostadinov20%
Dieumerci Ndongala17%
Georgios Efrem0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Saeid Mehri0%
Vid Belec0%
DÃĄlcio0%
TomanÃĐ0%
Lucas VillafÃĄÃąez0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Jefte Vital da Silva Dias0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Georgios Efrem33%
Lucas VillafÃĄÃąez17%
Radosav PetroviÄ0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Marquinhos0%
Anastasios Donis0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Saeid Mehri0%
Vid Belec0%
DÃĄlcio0%
TomanÃĐ0%
Issam Chebake0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Jefte Vital da Silva Dias0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Saeid Mehri20%
TomanÃĐ20%
Marquinhos17%
Anastasios Donis17%
Radosav PetroviÄ0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Giorgi Kvilitaia0%
Georgios Efrem0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Vid Belec0%
DÃĄlcio0%
Issam Chebake0%
Lucas VillafÃĄÃąez0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Jefte Vital da Silva Dias0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar squad value (both €16m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar attack value (both €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's defence is €2m more valuable than Apoel Nicosia's (€7m vs €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Pafos
AEL
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou