AEK Larnaca are tipped to win as the model favours a home victory, with a 51% chance of triumph, 28% for a draw and 22% for an away win. The expected total of 2.5 goals points to a modestly open game, and the single most likely scoreline is 1-1, a 13.1% probability. AEK’s home form shows they average 1.44 goals scored and 0.78 conceded against similar opposition, while Apoel Nicosia, on the road, manage only 0.64 goals scored and concede 1.55 against similar teams.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (99.4%), Under 6.5 (98.5% with a 4% edge), Away under 3.5 goals (98.4% with a 4% edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (98.2% with a 4% edge), Under 5.5 (95.6% with a 4% edge), Home under 2.5 HT goals (95.5% with a 3% edge), and Away under 1.5 HT goals (93.5% with a 3% edge). The recent form narrative highlights AEK’s two-game winning streak after a 3-2 win over Beitar Jerusalem, contrasted with Apoel’s single win following four straight defeats and a 0-2 loss to Pafos.
Results analysis
AEK Larnaca’s three-game winning streak continued as they edged Apoel Nicosia 3-1, confirming the model’s home-win pick with a 51% probability. The predicted 2-goal total fell short, but the model’s selections were largely accurate: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 99.4%, Under 6.5 at 98.5%, Away under 3.5 goals at 98.4%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 98.3%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 95.7%, Under 5.5 at 95.6%, and Away under 1.5 HT goals at 93.3%. Each probability was expressed as a percentage, and every selection’s outcome was noted. The model’s prediction proved correct, and the majority of its picks hit as expected.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Larnaca win✓ Hit
50.9%
Avg Implied 49.0% · @ 1.86
Edge
+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Dafabet
1.93
Bet365
1.90
Betano
1.88
Betfair
1.87
Draw✗ Miss
27.6%
Avg Implied 27.7% · @ 3.30
Edge
-0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.45
1xBet
3.40
Marathonbet
3.40
Pinnacle
3.39
Apoel Nicosia win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 23.3% · @ 3.93
Edge
-1.7%
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
4.25
1xBet
4.24
Pinnacle
4.09
Betano
4.05
BetVictor
4.00
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.87
1.73
0.67
1.33
1.07
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
1.44
1.06
1.38
0.75
1.50
1.30
vs Weaker (10)
1.90
0.60
2.33
0.50
1.25
0.75
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.30
1.43
1.56
1.31
1.00
1.57
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.95
1.55
1.33
1.56
0.64
1.55
vs Weaker (10)
2.00
1.20
1.86
1.00
2.33
1.67
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.2%
@ 1.31+2.4%
Under 1.5
26.8%
@ 3.17-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Under
Betfair
3.50
Bet365
3.25
Pinnacle
3.18
Superbet
3.15
BetVictor
3.13
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.5%
@ 2.00+0.0%
Under 2.5
53.5%
@ 1.74-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.05
Bet365
2.05
Pinnacle
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
1xBet
2.02
Under
Betfair
1.80
Pinnacle
1.76
1xBet
1.75
Marathonbet
1.75
Bet365
1.75
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.0%
@ 3.44-1.9%
Under 3.5
75.0%
@ 1.26+1.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
1xBet
3.42
Marathonbet
3.42
Betano
3.40
Under
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.0%
@ 1.83-0.3%
No
50.0%
@ 1.86+0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Bet365
1.91
William Hil
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
No
Betfair
2.00
Superbet
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.09+5.8%
1-0
11.3%@ 6.21+4.2%
2-0
9.9%@ 8.08+4.4%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.75+3.7%
0-0
9.1%@ 8.65+4.0%
0-1
6.4%@ 10.05+1.9%
1-2
5.7%@ 12.66+2.2%
3-0
5.2%@ 14.89+2.2%
AEK Larnaca goals ↓
Apoel Nicosia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
6.4%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.5%
4.5%
1.4%
0.3%
3
5.2%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Larnaca goals (down), columns = Apoel Nicosia goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Nea Salamis
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Olympiakos
1.21
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.10
Karmiotissa
1.00
AEK Larnaca is 0.47 points better than Apoel Nicosia in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.44).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Nea Salamis
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.94
AEK Larnaca is 0.25 goals better than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.47).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Aris
1.25
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
Olympiakos
1.33
AEL
1.39
Nea Salamis
1.52
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.68
Karmiotissa
1.85
AEK Larnaca is 0.33 goals better than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.25).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
AEK Larnaca is 4.5 percentage points worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of average possession (49% vs 54%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Larnaca
For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
For 6.1 · Against 5.6 · Total 11.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 1.9 · Total 5.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 11.6 · Total 23.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.5
10.2
2.4
2.3
2.5
24.2
23.1
25.3
vs Stronger (4)
9.5
9.5
9.5
4.8
7.0
2.5
24.8
24.5
25.0
vs Similar (31)
9.3
7.4
10.3
2.8
2.0
3.6
24.6
23.4
25.3
vs Weaker (15)
9.7
9.7
-
0.9
1.8
0.0
21.7
21.7
-
% over line
48%
40%
55%
34%
32%
36%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
52%
60%
45%
66%
68%
64%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.8
10.3
2.9
3.5
2.2
27.6
28.7
25.7
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (36)
10.9
11.1
10.5
3.1
3.6
2.6
27.7
29.1
25.5
vs Weaker (14)
10.0
10.2
9.5
2.2
3.3
1.1
27.4
27.8
26.5
% over line
68%
78%
50%
44%
54%
33%
86%
89%
80%
% under line
32%
22%
50%
56%
46%
67%
14%
11%
20%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Krasava Ypsonas
9.9
Apoel Nicosia
9.8
Aris
9.7
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Karmiotissa
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Anorthosis
8.7
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Pafos
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.9
AEL
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Olympiakos
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.2
Karmiotissa
27.0
Aris
26.2
Pafos
26.1
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.3
Apollon Limassol
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
46.8%
@ 2.29+6.3%
Under 9.5
53.2%
@ 1.56-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.37
1xBet
2.26
Superbet
2.25
Under
Superbet
1.58
Betano
1.55
1xBet
1.55
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
74.5%
@ 1.38+9.2%
Under 3.5
25.5%
@ 2.60-9.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.38
Under
Superbet
2.60
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
79.5%
Under 21.5
20.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AEK Larnaca or Draw✓ Hit
78.4%
Avg Implied 76.8% · @ 1.21
Edge
+1.7%
51%
28%
22%
covers AEK Larnaca + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
AEK Larnaca or Apoel Nicosia✓ Hit
72.4%
Avg Implied 73.0% · @ 1.27
Edge
-0.6%
51%
28%
22%
covers AEK Larnaca + Apoel Nicosia
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
Draw or Apoel Nicosia✗ Miss
49.1%
Avg Implied 50.2% · @ 1.85
Edge
-1.1%
51%
28%
22%
covers Draw + Apoel Nicosia
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.95
1xBet
1.89
SBO
1.89
Marathonbet
1.89
William Hil
1.85
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.5%
@ 1.21+2.4%
Under
20.5%
@ 4.06-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.20
BetVictor
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Bet365
4.00
Betano
4.00
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
46.9%
@ 1.99+0.4%
Under
53.1%
@ 1.74-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
2.05
Superbet
2.02
Pinnacle
2.01
Bet365
2.00
Betano
2.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.78
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.76
Betano
1.75
Bet365
1.73
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.2%
@ 4.17-1.0%
Under
78.8%
@ 1.19+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
4.33
Bet365
4.33
Superbet
4.20
Marathonbet
4.15
Betano
4.00
Under
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
AEK Larnaca over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.6%
@ 8.82-2.9%
Under
92.4%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.50
Superbet
9.30
Bet365
8.50
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.5%
@ 1.51+0.3%
Under
38.5%
@ 2.38-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.54
Marathonbet
1.53
Betano
1.53
Bet365
1.53
1xBet
1.52
Under
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.42
BetVictor
2.40
Betano
2.40
Bet365
2.38
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
@ 3.47-2.1%
Under
75.3%
@ 1.27+2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
3.72
BetVictor
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.40
Superbet
3.30
Under
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
7.2%
@ 9.14-3.0%
Under
92.8%
@ 1.04+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.00
1xBet
10.00
Bet365
8.50
Superbet
8.40
Betano
7.80
Under
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
Apoel Nicosia over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 17.17-3.9%
Under
98.4%
@ 1.01+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Bet365
15.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AEK Larnaca, so a minus line means AEK Larnaca give that many goals of a start and Apoel Nicosia receive them. At -1, AEK Larnaca must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AEK Larnaca win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AEK Larnaca)Actual: Draw
AEK Larnaca -2
11.4%
@ 6.90-1.5%
Draw -2
15.9%
@ 5.28-0.9%
Apoel Nicosia +2
72.6%
@ 1.27+2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
7.10
Bet365
6.50
Draw
Marathonbet
5.55
Superbet
5.30
Bet365
5.00
Away
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
Handicap -1 (AEK Larnaca)Actual: AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca -1
27.4%
@ 3.28+0.8%
Draw -1
23.5%
@ 3.45-1.8%
Apoel Nicosia +1
49.1%
@ 1.81+1.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Betfair
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Bet365
3.25
Marathonbet
3.24
Unibet
2.88
Draw
Bet365
3.60
Marathonbet
3.56
Superbet
3.55
Betfair
3.50
Unibet
3.05
Away
Marathonbet
1.89
Bet365
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Betfair
1.80
Unibet
1.73
Handicap +1 (AEK Larnaca)Actual: AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca +1
78.4%
@ 1.22+7.4%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 4.91-3.9%
Apoel Nicosia -1
7.9%
@ 7.62-3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Superbet
5.30
Marathonbet
3.94
Away
Bet365
9.00
Superbet
7.90
Marathonbet
5.95
Handicap +2 (AEK Larnaca)Actual: AEK Larnaca
AEK Larnaca +2
92.1%
@ 1.05+4.4%
Draw +2
5.8%
@ 11.50-2.2%
Apoel Nicosia -2
2.1%
@ 21.50-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
Draw
Bet365
13.00
Superbet
10.00
Away
Bet365
23.00
Superbet
20.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.33
0.87
0.40
0.53
0.27
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.39
0.75
0.50
0.50
0.30
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.20
1.17
0.17
0.75
0.25
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.40
0.67
0.44
0.50
0.36
0.86
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.40
0.75
0.56
0.56
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (10)
0.40
0.50
0.29
0.43
0.67
0.67
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
70.9%
@ 1.40+4.8%
Under 0.5
29.1%
@ 2.73-4.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
Under
Betfair
3.00
William Hil
2.80
Pinnacle
2.75
Bet365
2.75
Superbet
2.70
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
34.2%
@ 2.87+2.0%
Under 1.5
65.8%
@ 1.36-2.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.00
Bet365
3.00
Pinnacle
2.92
Marathonbet
2.90
1xBet
2.90
Under
BetVictor
1.37
Betano
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Superbet
1.37
Betfair
1.36
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
13.3%
@ 7.14+0.2%
Under 2.5
86.7%
@ 1.07-0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
7.50
Bet365
7.00
Betfair
7.00
Superbet
6.90
Under
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
57.7%
@ 1.85+7.6%
Under
42.3%
@ 1.86-7.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.91
Superbet
1.85
Pinnacle
1.84
1xBet
1.83
Marathonbet
1.83
Under
Pinnacle
1.92
1xBet
1.85
Marathonbet
1.85
Superbet
1.85
Betano
1.83
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
21.9%
@ 5.40+4.7%
Under
78.1%
@ 1.12-4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
5.60
Marathonbet
5.60
Betano
5.20
Superbet
5.20
Under
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.3%
@ 13.50-2.7%
Under
95.7%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Betano
11.00
Under
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
33.3%
@ 2.64-1.8%
Under
66.7%
@ 1.43+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.72
1xBet
2.64
Marathonbet
2.64
Betano
2.62
Superbet
2.57
Under
Superbet
1.45
Betano
1.45
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.41
1xBet
1.41
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
6.7%
@ 10.22-2.5%
Under
93.3%
@ 1.04+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
11.75
1xBet
11.70
Superbet
9.20
Betano
8.25
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.6%
@ 39.00-99.4%
Under
99.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
39.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.53
0.87
0.27
0.80
0.80
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (18)
0.83
0.67
0.62
0.25
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (10)
0.90
0.40
1.17
0.33
0.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.77
1.12
0.81
0.64
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.55
0.80
0.78
1.00
0.36
0.64
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.70
1.57
0.57
1.67
1.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.4%
@ 1.26+2.4%
Under 0.5
23.6%
@ 3.58-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
Under
Bet365
3.75
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.65
Superbet
3.50
William Hil
3.30
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
45.9%
@ 2.21+3.8%
Under 1.5
54.1%
@ 1.61-3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
2.25
1xBet
2.23
Marathonbet
2.23
Superbet
2.20
Bet365
2.20
Under
Betano
1.67
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.60
Superbet
1.60
1xBet
1.60
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
18.9%
@ 4.74-0.8%
Under 2.5
81.1%
@ 1.16+0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.00
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Betano
4.55
1xBet
4.40
Under
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
62.7%
@ 1.62+5.4%
Under
37.3%
@ 2.18-5.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
1.67
Superbet
1.63
Betano
1.60
1xBet
1.58
Under
Betano
2.27
1xBet
2.24
Superbet
2.15
Marathonbet
2.05
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
26.5%
@ 3.83+2.3%
Under
73.5%
@ 1.22-2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
4.00
Marathonbet
3.92
1xBet
3.70
Betano
3.70
Under
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 10.07-1.5%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.03+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
9.70
Betano
8.50
Under
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
39.4%
@ 2.17-3.3%
Under
60.6%
@ 1.62+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.20
Marathonbet
2.20
Betano
2.15
Superbet
2.12
Under
Superbet
1.65
Betano
1.65
1xBet
1.59
Marathonbet
1.58
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 7.20-2.9%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.06+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.30
1xBet
7.50
Superbet
6.70
Betano
6.30
Under
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 17.50-3.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
23.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.01
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
99.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.5%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.4%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
98.3%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
1.01
Betano
1.02
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.6%
1.02
Betano
1.03
1xBet
1.02
Bet365
1.02
Superbet
1.02
-
+3.9%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
93.3%
1.04
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.04
-
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.8%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
92.4%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.04
1xBet
1.01
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
92.2%
1.03
Betano
1.05
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+1.5%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
1.05
Bet365
1.05
Superbet
1.05
-
-
-
+4.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
90.1%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Superbet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.04
1xBet
1.04
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
89.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
88.6%
1.06
Betano
1.10
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.08
BetVictor
1.05
1xBet
1.04
+1.9%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
88.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 HT goals
86.7%
1.07
Betano
1.09
William Hil
1.08
Bet365
1.08
Betfair
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 2H goals
81.1%
1.16
Betano
1.19
Bet365
1.17
1xBet
1.16
Superbet
1.15
William Hil
1.14
+0.8%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
79.5%
1.21
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.21
BetVictor
1.20
1xBet
1.18
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.8%
1.19
Betano
1.22
Bet365
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Superbet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.18
+1.0%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
78.4%
1.21
Betano
1.26
Bet365
1.25
Superbet
1.23
BetVictor
1.22
William Hil
1.22
+1.7%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.4%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
Bet365
1.22
Marathonbet
1.19
-
-
+7.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
78.1%
1.12
Betano
1.14
Superbet
1.13
Marathonbet
1.11
1xBet
1.11
-
-4.7%
✗ Miss
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.4%
1.26
William Hil
1.29
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.23
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.0%
1.21
Betano
1.28
Superbet
1.23
1xBet
1.12
-
-
-0.3%
-
Away under 1.5 goals
75.3%
1.27
Superbet
1.29
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
1xBet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
+2.1%
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.0%
1.26
Betfair
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
BetVictor
1.25
+1.9%
✗ Miss
Over 3.5 cards
74.5%
1.38
Superbet
1.38
-
-
-
-
+9.2%
-
Home under 1.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.22
Betano
1.25
1xBet
1.22
Marathonbet
1.21
Superbet
1.20
-
-2.3%
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.2%
1.31
Betano
1.34
Bet365
1.33
BetVictor
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Superbet
1.31
+2.4%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.6%
1.27
Bet365
1.28
Superbet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.26
-
-
+2.4%
✗ Miss
Home or Away
72.4%
1.27
William Hil
1.33
Betano
1.29
Superbet
1.29
1xBet
1.28
Bet365
1.28
-0.6%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
70.9%
1.40
Betano
1.47
BetVictor
1.43
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.41
1xBet
1.40
+4.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEK Larnaca · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Karol Angielski50%
Marcus Rohdén27%
Riad Bajić21%
Enric Saborit17%
Robert Mudražija12%
Enzo Cabrera12%
Jorge Miramón12%
Đorđe Ivanović11%
Waldo Rubio Marín10%
Hrvoje Miličević5%
Charalampos Kyriakou0%
Valentin Roberge0%
Petros Ioannou0%
Antreas Paraskevas0%
Ángel García0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Jimmy Suárez0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Yahav Gurfinkel0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Youssef Amyn0%
Álex Cardero0%
Mathías González0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Mathías González40%
Enric Saborit33%
Petros Ioannou25%
Valentin Roberge23%
Pere Pons22%
Hrvoje Miličević21%
Godswill Ekpolo20%
Giorgos Naoum20%
Jorge Miramón19%
Marcus Rohdén18%
Ángel García18%
Jeremie Gnali17%
Álex Cardero17%
Enzo Cabrera12%
Gus Ledes11%
Waldo Rubio Marín10%
Riad Bajić5%
Đorđe Ivanović5%
Robert Mudražija0%
Charalampos Kyriakou0%
Antreas Paraskevas0%
Karol Angielski0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Jimmy Suárez0%
Yahav Gurfinkel0%
Youssef Amyn0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Marcus Rohdén27%
Jeremie Gnali17%
Jairo Izquierdo14%
Gus Ledes11%
Ángel García9%
Charalampos Kyriakou8%
Godswill Ekpolo7%
Jorge Miramón6%
Hrvoje Miličević5%
Robert Mudražija0%
Valentin Roberge0%
Enzo Cabrera0%
Riad Bajić0%
Petros Ioannou0%
Antreas Paraskevas0%
Karol Angielski0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Đorđe Ivanović0%
Jimmy Suárez0%
Waldo Rubio Marín0%
Pere Pons0%
Enric Saborit0%
Yahav Gurfinkel0%
Giorgos Naoum0%
Youssef Amyn0%
Álex Cardero0%
Mathías González0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Karol Angielski25%
Riad Bajić16%
Đorđe Ivanović11%
Hrvoje Miličević11%
Waldo Rubio Marín10%
Giorgos Naoum10%
Marcus Rohdén9%
Enric Saborit8%
Robert Mudražija0%
Charalampos Kyriakou0%
Valentin Roberge0%
Enzo Cabrera0%
Petros Ioannou0%
Antreas Paraskevas0%
Ángel García0%
Zlatan Alomerović0%
Jairo Izquierdo0%
Jimmy Suárez0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Jorge Miramón0%
Godswill Ekpolo0%
Yahav Gurfinkel0%
Jeremie Gnali0%
Youssef Amyn0%
Álex Cardero0%
Mathías González0%
Apoel Nicosia · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikolas Koutsakos30%
Stefan Dražić23%
Daniel Mancini14%
Mathías Tomás14%
Miloš Degenek11%
David Abagna9%
Peter Olayinka8%
Constantinos Poursaitides8%
Marquinhos7%
Konstantinos Laifis6%
Diego Rosa6%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Max Meyer0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Kostas Stafylidis0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Nanú0%
Marius Corbu0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vitor Meer35%
Diego Rosa28%
Franz Denniz Brorsson25%
Konstantinos Laifis25%
Daniel Mancini21%
Gabriel Pereira20%
Nanú19%
Mathías Tomás19%
Peter Olayinka17%
Dálcio15%
Marquinhos14%
Gabriel Maioli12%
Miloš Degenek11%
Max Meyer10%
Dimitris Diamantakos10%
Kostas Stafylidis10%
David Abagna9%
Constantinos Poursaitides8%
Vid Belec6%
Nikolas Koutsakos5%
Stefan Dražić5%
Marius Corbu0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Kostas Stafylidis20%
Mathías Tomás19%
Daniel Mancini14%
Marius Corbu14%
Nanú10%
Marquinhos7%
Stefan Dražić5%
Peter Olayinka0%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Konstantinos Laifis0%
Miloš Degenek0%
Max Meyer0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Diego Rosa0%
Nikolas Koutsakos0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
David Abagna0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Constantinos Poursaitides0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mathías Tomás38%
Stefan Dražić18%
Gabriel Maioli12%
Nikolas Koutsakos10%
Peter Olayinka8%
Marquinhos7%
Franz Denniz Brorsson0%
Konstantinos Laifis0%
Miloš Degenek0%
Max Meyer0%
Daniel Mancini0%
Dimitris Diamantakos0%
Kostas Stafylidis0%
Vid Belec0%
Dálcio0%
Nanú0%
Marius Corbu0%
Diego Rosa0%
Gabriel Pereira0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Vitor Meer0%
David Abagna0%
Geovane Meurer0%
Constantinos Poursaitides0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Charles Yaw Appiah0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar squad value (both €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
KY (8)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar attack value (both €7m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Apoel Nicosia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
AEK Larnaca's defence is €2m more valuable than Apoel Nicosia's (€7m vs €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
AEL
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Nicosia
Anorthosis
Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas