This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.17
1.73
0.73
1.73
1.60
vs Stronger (6)
1.17
2.17
1.00
1.67
1.33
2.67
vs Similar (10)
0.90
1.00
1.00
0.80
0.80
1.20
vs Weaker (14)
2.57
0.86
2.57
0.29
2.57
1.43
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
82.4%
Under 1.5
17.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.6%
Under 2.5
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.2%
Under 3.5
62.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
62.9%
No
37.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
12.0%
1-2
8.4%
2-1
8.4%
2-2
6.5%
0-1
6.0%
1-0
6.0%
0-0
5.7%
0-2
5.5%
AEK Larnaca goals ↓
Aris goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.7%
6.0%
5.5%
2.8%
1.1%
1
6.0%
12%
8.4%
4.3%
1.7%
2
5.4%
8.4%
6.5%
3.3%
1.3%
3
2.8%
4.3%
3.3%
1.7%
0.7%
4
1.1%
1.7%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Larnaca goals (down), columns = Aris goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
AEK Larnaca is 0.22 points better than Aris in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.81).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
AEK Larnaca is 0.17 goals worse than Aris in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.75).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
AEK Larnaca is 0.08 goals better than Aris in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 0.94).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
AEK Larnaca is 3.6 percentage points worse than Aris in terms of average possession (52% vs 56%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEK Larnaca
For 5.5 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.5
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.5 · Total 4.8
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 14.6 · Total 27.1
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Aris
For 5.3 · Against 4.0 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 5.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.1 · Against 8.9 · Total 24.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.1
9.2
4.7
5.3
4.2
25.7
26.0
25.4
vs Stronger (2)
8.5
14.0
3.0
2.0
2.0
2.0
18.5
20.0
17.0
vs Similar (30)
9.4
8.9
9.9
4.9
5.5
4.3
27.1
27.6
26.5
vs Weaker (18)
10.2
11.6
8.8
4.8
5.3
4.2
24.2
24.1
24.3
% over line
50%
58%
42%
68%
75%
62%
76%
83%
68%
% under line
50%
42%
58%
32%
25%
38%
24%
17%
32%
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.5
8.8
10.2
5.4
4.7
6.2
25.1
23.7
26.6
vs Stronger (6)
10.3
9.0
11.7
4.5
4.7
4.3
23.7
24.3
23.0
vs Similar (25)
9.2
8.8
9.8
5.8
4.8
6.8
25.7
23.5
28.1
vs Weaker (19)
9.5
8.7
10.4
5.3
4.6
6.0
24.8
23.8
25.9
% over line
48%
35%
62%
72%
69%
75%
78%
69%
88%
% under line
52%
65%
38%
28%
31%
25%
22%
31%
12%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
10.0
Omonia Nicosia
9.8
AE Zakakiou
9.8
AEL
9.7
AEK Larnaca
9.7
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Aris
9.5
Nea Salamis
9.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.1
Anorthosis
9.1
Karmiotissa
9.0
Doxa
9.0
Pafos
8.6
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.4
Ethnikos Achna
5.3
Pafos
5.3
AE Zakakiou
5.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.3
Anorthosis
5.2
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Doxa
4.9
Othellos
4.9
Nea Salamis
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.9
AEK Larnaca
4.8
AEL
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
30.0
Anorthosis
29.6
Doxa
26.8
Karmiotissa
26.6
AEL
26.5
AE Zakakiou
26.3
Ethnikos Achna
25.9
AEK Larnaca
25.7
Apollon Limassol
25.6
Pafos
25.5
Nea Salamis
25.3
Aris
25.1
Othellos
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
23.9
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.1%
Under 9.5
44.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
83.0%
Under 3.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
86.5%
Under 21.5
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.53
0.93
0.80
0.47
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.25
0.44
0.25
0.62
0.25
0.25
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.64
1.71
1.00
0.71
0.29
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.47
0.80
0.40
0.80
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.67
1.00
vs Similar (10)
0.60
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.60
0.40
vs Weaker (14)
1.07
0.21
1.14
0.00
1.00
0.43
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.43
1.07
0.40
0.67
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.56
0.44
0.88
0.50
0.25
0.38
vs Weaker (14)
1.21
0.43
1.29
0.29
1.14
0.57
Clean sheet %
67% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Aris) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aris
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.70
0.93
0.33
0.93
1.07
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.17
0.67
0.67
0.67
1.67
vs Similar (10)
0.30
0.50
0.40
0.20
0.20
0.80
vs Weaker (14)
1.50
0.64
1.43
0.29
1.57
1.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aris over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
92.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
82.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ67%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Aris
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Shavy Warren Babicka50%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson25%
Mariusz StÄpiÅski22%
CajÚ20%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda8%
VanÃĄ0%
Franz Brorsson0%
JÚlius SzÅke0%
Matija Å poljariÄ0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou SanÃĐ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Artem Shumansky50%
Franz Brorsson40%
Aleksandr Kokorin38%
Leo Bengtsson33%
MiÅosz Matysik33%
Mamadou SanÃĐ33%
Eric Boakye25%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda23%
Morgan Brown22%
CajÚ20%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ20%
Steeve Yago18%
Karol Struski18%
Yannick Gomis17%
JÚlius SzÅke15%
Jaden Montnor8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
VanÃĄ0%
Matija Å poljariÄ0%
Mariusz StÄpiÅski0%
Edi Semedo0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Shavy Warren Babicka0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Edi Semedo33%
Jaden Montnor17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz StÄpiÅski11%
CajÚ10%
Karol Struski9%
Leo Bengtsson8%
Mihlali Mayambela8%
VanÃĄ0%
Franz Brorsson0%
JÚlius SzÅke0%
Matija Å poljariÄ0%
Yannick Gomis0%
Steeve Yago0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Morgan Brown0%
Mamadou SanÃĐ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Yannick Gomis25%
Leo Bengtsson17%
Aleksandr Kokorin12%
Shavy Warren Babicka12%
Mariusz StÄpiÅski11%
Morgan Brown11%
Jaden Montnor8%
VanÃĄ0%
Franz Brorsson0%
JÚlius SzÅke0%
CajÚ0%
Matija Å poljariÄ0%
Steeve Yago0%
Edi Semedo0%
Mihlali Mayambela0%
Slobodan UroÅĄeviÄ0%
Veljko NikoliÄ0%
Eric Boakye0%
Karol Struski0%
MiÅosz Matysik0%
Alex Yowan Kevin Moucketou-Moussounda0%
Artem Shumansky0%
Mamadou SanÃĐ0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's squad is €5m more valuable than Aris's (€16m vs €11m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's attack is €4m more valuable than Aris's (€7m vs €3m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Aris have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's defence is €1m more valuable than Aris's (€7m vs €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Pafos
AEL
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou