This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
1.53
1.71
1.29
1.19
1.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
2.33
1.00
1.50
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (21)
1.71
1.48
1.91
1.27
1.50
1.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
20% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
87.8%
Under 1.5
12.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
68.8%
Under 2.5
31.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
47.4%
Under 3.5
52.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
66.9%
No
33.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 â
9.4%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
3-1
6.8%
2-2
6.4%
1-2
5.8%
1-0
5.4%
3-0
5.0%
AEK Larnaca goals ↓
Nea Salamis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
3.7%
3.1%
2.7%
1.2%
0.4%
1
5.4%
9.4%
5.8%
2.7%
0.9%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
5.0%
6.8%
4.7%
2.1%
0.7%
4
2.7%
3.7%
2.5%
1.2%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Larnaca goals (down), columns = Nea Salamis goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
AEK Larnaca is 0.75 points better than Nea Salamis in terms of average points per game (2.03 vs 1.27).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
AEK Larnaca is 0.28 goals better than Nea Salamis in terms of goals scored per game (1.58 vs 1.30).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
AEK Larnaca is 0.66 goals better than Nea Salamis in terms of goals conceded per game (0.86 vs 1.52).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
AEK Larnaca is 0.2 percentage points better than Nea Salamis in terms of average possession (52% vs 52%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEK Larnaca
For 6.4 · Against 4.8 · Total 11.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.6 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.3 · Against 11.3 · Total 22.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nea Salamis
For 2.9 · Against 6.3 · Total 9.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 13.6 · Total 25.4
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.0
9.2
8.9
4.0
4.5
3.5
27.1
28.0
26.2
vs Stronger (6)
7.7
10.7
4.7
4.8
6.3
3.3
26.3
30.0
22.7
vs Similar (28)
8.5
7.5
9.6
3.9
4.6
3.1
27.1
28.2
25.8
vs Weaker (16)
10.5
12.6
9.3
4.0
3.7
4.2
27.4
26.4
27.9
% over line
42%
50%
35%
60%
67%
54%
71%
85%
59%
% under line
58%
50%
65%
40%
33%
46%
29%
15%
41%
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (44)
9.2
9.1
9.2
3.8
3.9
3.8
27.7
28.4
27.2
vs Stronger (11)
9.6
9.2
10.0
3.8
4.6
3.2
26.4
28.2
24.5
vs Similar (29)
9.0
8.9
9.0
3.8
3.8
3.8
27.7
28.4
27.1
vs Weaker (4)
9.7
11.0
9.0
4.2
3.0
5.5
31.7
29.0
33.0
% over line
47%
44%
50%
61%
67%
57%
82%
87%
78%
% under line
53%
56%
50%
39%
33%
43%
18%
13%
22%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
14.0
Anorthosis
9.7
Karmiotissa
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.3
Ethnikos Achna
9.2
Aris
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Nea Salamis
9.2
AEL
9.0
Omonia Nicosia
9.0
Doxa
8.8
Pafos
8.7
Apoel Nicosia
8.4
AE Zakakiou
8.0
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Pafos
5.7
Othellos
5.6
Ethnikos Achna
5.5
Apoel Nicosia
5.4
AE Zakakiou
5.4
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Doxa
5.0
Nea Salamis
5.0
Aris
4.8
AEK Larnaca
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
AEL
4.6
Anorthosis
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
30.1
Othellos
29.4
Doxa
28.0
Nea Salamis
27.7
AEL
27.6
AE Zakakiou
27.4
Anorthosis
27.4
AEK Larnaca
27.3
Pafos
26.7
Apollon Limassol
26.3
Ethnikos Achna
26.2
Karmiotissa
26.0
Aris
25.9
Omonia Nicosia
23.4
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
51.9%
Under 9.5
48.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
78.0%
Under 3.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
87.9%
Under 21.5
12.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.77
0.93
0.93
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.53
0.44
0.56
0.50
0.50
vs Weaker (9)
1.56
1.11
2.25
1.50
1.00
0.80
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.83
0.79
0.64
0.38
1.00
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.33
0.50
1.00
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.71
0.81
0.91
0.64
0.50
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.80
0.71
0.43
0.38
1.12
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
0.00
3.00
vs Similar (19)
0.47
0.84
0.78
0.33
0.20
1.30
vs Weaker (9)
0.78
0.56
0.75
0.75
0.80
0.40
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.70
0.93
0.64
0.81
0.75
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (21)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.64
1.00
0.70
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.33
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
90.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
87.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEK Larnaca
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Gus Ledes25%
Pere Pons25%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ25%
Franco Tongya25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo SÃĄnchez33%
Ãngel GarcÃa33%
Valentin Roberge25%
Gus Ledes25%
Clarismario25%
Alpha Dionkou25%
Fran Sol0%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ0%
Mark Diemers0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Franco Tongya0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ67%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ50%
Gus Ledes25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Fran Sol0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Mark Diemers0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fran Sol33%
ÃdÃĄm GyurcsÃģ33%
Mark Diemers25%
Valentin Roberge0%
Facundo SÃĄnchez0%
Ãngel GarcÃa0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Gus Ledes0%
Pere Pons0%
Kenan PiriÄ0%
Imad Faraj0%
Hrvoje MiliÄeviÄ0%
Clarismario0%
Alpha Dionkou0%
Franco Tongya0%
Nea Salamis · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad TomoviÄ0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's squad is €11m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€16m vs €5m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's attack is €5m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€7m vs €2m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEK Larnaca and Nea Salamis have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEK Larnaca's defence is €5m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€7m vs €2m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Pafos
AEL
Anorthosis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou