AEK Larnaca vs Pafos Result & Analysis

The contest between AEK Larnaca and Pafos is a tight one, with the model favouring a home win at 37%. A draw sits at 27% and an away win at 36%. The expected total of 2.9 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, but the most likely total is two goals, with a 25% chance. The single score that the model deems most probable is a 1-1 draw, occurring with a 12.9% probability. AEK Larnaca, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.14 goals scored and conceded, while Pafos, on the road against a similar side, averages 0.88 goals scored and conceded. Suggested selections include Over 2.5 cards at 92.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 92.2%, Over 21.5 fouls at 84.1%, Over 3.5 cards at 82.9%, Under 11.5 corners at 80.9%, Over 23.5 fouls at 72.2%, Under 10.5 corners at 71.3%, and Over 1.5 goals at 79.0%. The model’s pick remains a home win.

The updated form shows AEK Larnaca on a three-game winning streak, while Pafos comes off a recent victory. The model predicted a home win with a 37% probability, and the result matched that call as AEK Larnaca secured a 1-0 victory. The most likely scoreline of 1-1 was not achieved, but the overall prediction was correct. The model’s selections largely hit: Over 2.5 cards (92.8%) hit, Over 19.5 fouls (92.2%) hit, Over 21.5 fouls (84.1%) hit, Over 3.5 cards (82.9%) hit, Under 11.5 corners (80.9%) hit, Over 23.5 fouls (72.2%) hit, and Under 10.5 corners (71.3%) hit. The only miss was Over 1.5 (79.0%). The match confirmed the model’s overall accuracy.