AEK Larnaca vs Pafos Result & Analysis

The contest between AEK Larnaca and Pafos is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away win. The odds are 35% for a home victory, 28% for a draw, and 37% for the visitors, making the latter the most likely outcome. The expected total of goals is 2.7, but the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.4% chance. AEK Larnaca, playing at home against a team of similar strength, averages 1.12 goals scored and 1.25 conceded, while Pafos on the road averages 1.0 scored and 0.86 conceded. The model’s selections include an Over 19.5 fouls at 92%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 83.7%, Under 11.5 corners at 83.2%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.3%, Over 1.5 at 76.9% (hit), Under 10.5 corners at 74.2%, and Over 23.5 fouls at 71.7%. Both teams have shown recent form: AEK Larnaca are on a three-game winning streak, while Pafos come off a win. The match promises a tight contest, with the visitors slightly ahead in the model’s assessment.

The upset came early as the pre-match favourite, the model’s pick of an away win at 37 percent, failed to materialise, with AEK Larnaca turning a 3-game winning run into a decisive 3-0 victory. The model’s prediction of a 2-goal total proved wrong, as the match produced three goals. The only other selection, Over 1.5 at 76.9 percent, hit, confirming the high-scoring expectation. AEK’s home form, noted as a 3-game winning streak, was reinforced by the win, while Pafos, coming off a win, could not keep pace. The model’s call was incorrect, but its Over 1.5 pick was right.