AEK Larnaca vs Pafos Result & Analysis

AEK Larnaca’s defensive record at home shows a modest 1.0 goal conceded per match, while their 1.43 goals scored suggest a balanced attack. Pafos, on the road, averages 1.3 conceded and 1.2 scored against similar opposition, indicating a slightly tighter defense but less potent offense. The model favours an away win, with a 35% chance, followed by a 33% home win and a 32% draw. The expected total is 2.2 goals, centring on a 2-goal match with a 28% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 14.8% chance. Suggested picks include Over 19.5 fouls at 95.5%, Over 2.5 cards at 90.4%, Over 21.5 fouls at 89.9%, Under 3.5 at 82.6% (miss), Over 23.5 fouls at 80.8%, Under 11.5 corners at 79.3%, and Over 3.5 cards at 78.4%. AEK Larnaca entered the game on a three-game winning streak, while Pafos came off a win, setting the stage for a tightly contested, low-scoring encounter.

The pre-match favourite, an away win for Pafos at 35%, fell short as the match finished 2-2, a draw that extended AEK Larnaca’s three-game winning run and left Pafos on a win after a 3-0 victory. The model’s call was wrong, and the predicted 2.2 total goals did not materialise. The only other selection was Under 3.5, with an 82.6% probability, which missed as the match produced four goals. The final score of 2-2 matched the actual result of a draw, confirming the unexpected outcome.