Pythia gives AEK Larnaca a 48% win probability against Pafos in the Cyprus: 1. Division on 2026-05-16, with 28% for the draw and 24% for Pafos. The model estimates around 2.6 total goals, with 2 the most likely total (26%) and 1-1 the most likely scoreline (13.2%). High-confidence angles (70%+): Over 19.5 fouls (91%), Over 2.5 cards (90%), Over 21.5 fouls (82%), Under 11.5 corners (77%).
Results analysis
AEK Larnaca finished 2-2 against Pafos (Draw). Pythia had modelled a 48% home win, 28% draw and 24% away win. Picks that landed: Over 1.5 (75%). Missed: Under 3.5 (73%).
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEK Larnaca win✗ Miss
48.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Pafos win✗ Miss
24.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEK Larnaca
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.40
0.70
1.67
0.60
1.13
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.82
0.86
0.86
0.80
0.80
vs Weaker (13)
2.15
0.54
2.38
0.38
1.80
0.80
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.70
1.20
2.07
0.93
1.33
1.47
vs Stronger (4)
1.50
1.50
3.00
1.50
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
1.33
1.53
1.33
1.22
1.33
2.00
vs Weaker (11)
2.27
0.64
3.25
0.00
1.71
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
75.3%
Under 1.5
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
49.2%
Under 2.5
50.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
27.3%
Under 3.5
72.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.2%
No
46.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.2%
1-0
10.0%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
8.9%
0-0
8.3%
0-1
6.4%
1-2
6.4%
2-2 ✓
5.0%
AEK Larnaca goals ↓
Pafos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
8.3%
6.4%
4.0%
1.4%
0.4%
1
10%
13%
6.4%
2.3%
0.6%
2
8.9%
9.4%
5.0%
1.8%
0.5%
3
4.7%
5.0%
2.6%
0.9%
0.3%
4
1.8%
2.0%
1.0%
0.4%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEK Larnaca goals (down), columns = Pafos goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Akritas
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.00
Enosis
0.15
AEK Larnaca is 0.19 points better than Pafos in terms of average points per game (1.92 vs 1.72).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Ethnikos Achna
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Akritas
0.94
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Enosis
0.33
AEK Larnaca is 0.11 goals worse than Pafos in terms of goals scored per game (1.72 vs 1.83).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Aris
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Olympiakos
1.33
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
AEL
1.39
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Akritas
1.76
Enosis
2.42
AEK Larnaca is 0.14 goals better than Pafos in terms of goals conceded per game (0.92 vs 1.06).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Ethnikos Achna
48%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Akritas
44%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
Enosis
41%
AEK Larnaca is 5.7 percentage points worse than Pafos in terms of average possession (49% vs 55%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEK Larnaca
For 4.2 · Against 5.8 · Total 10.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 2.8 · Total 5.1
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.0 · Against 14.0 · Total 24.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
For 5.8 · Against 3.6 · Total 9.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.7 · Against 10.8 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEK Larnaca
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
8.5
10.2
2.7
2.4
3.0
24.2
23.1
25.3
vs Stronger (3)
8.0
8.0
-
4.7
4.5
5.0
21.0
21.0
-
vs Similar (30)
9.4
8.0
10.2
3.6
2.7
4.3
24.9
24.2
25.3
vs Weaker (17)
9.7
9.7
-
0.8
1.6
0.0
21.7
21.7
-
% over line
48%
40%
55%
38%
32%
44%
62%
60%
64%
% under line
52%
60%
45%
62%
68%
56%
38%
40%
36%
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.9
8.9
11.5
2.3
2.3
2.2
24.5
24.2
25.0
vs Stronger (8)
11.5
8.0
15.0
4.0
4.0
4.0
24.0
26.0
22.0
vs Similar (26)
9.0
9.0
9.0
2.0
2.2
1.8
25.6
25.6
25.8
vs Weaker (16)
9.6
9.4
10.0
1.9
1.8
2.0
23.5
20.8
28.0
% over line
48%
44%
55%
32%
36%
28%
67%
69%
64%
% under line
52%
56%
45%
68%
64%
72%
33%
31%
36%
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.2
Apoel Nicosia
9.9
Aris
9.7
Krasava Ypsonas
9.6
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Akritas
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.1
Enosis
9.0
Anorthosis
8.7
Ethnikos Achna
8.4
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.8
AEL
4.8
Pafos
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.5
Olympiakos
4.4
Akritas
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Enosis
28.2
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.3
Ethnikos Achna
27.2
Aris
26.2
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Pafos
25.6
Krasava Ypsonas
24.9
Omonia Nicosia
24.5
Apollon Limassol
24.5
Akritas
23.6
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
45.7%
Under 9.5
54.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
76.9%
Under 3.5
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
81.5%
Under 21.5
18.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.30
0.80
0.33
0.67
0.27
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.35
0.35
0.43
0.57
0.30
0.20
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.23
1.12
0.12
1.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.53
0.60
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.75
1.00
1.50
0.00
0.00
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.80
0.56
0.44
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (11)
1.09
0.09
1.75
0.00
0.71
0.14
Clean sheet %
60% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEK Larnaca
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.47
0.53
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.43
0.29
0.50
0.60
vs Weaker (13)
0.92
0.31
1.25
0.25
0.40
0.40
Clean sheet %
63% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.67
1.13
0.47
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
0.75
2.00
0.00
0.00
1.50
vs Similar (15)
0.80
0.73
0.78
0.78
0.83
0.67
vs Weaker (11)
1.18
0.55
1.50
0.00
1.00
0.86
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEK Larnaca) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEK Larnaca over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEK Larnaca over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
89.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
81.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 3.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
72.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
ON (37)
€19m
AL (30)
€16m
AN (30)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEK Larnaca's squad is €13m less valuable than Pafos's (€16m vs €28m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
ON (13)
€8m
AN (12)
€8m
AL (10)
€7m
ARI (8)
€3m
AEK Larnaca's attack is €7m less valuable than Pafos's (€7m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (6)
€4m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (6)
€2m
AEK Larnaca's midfield is €5m less valuable than Pafos's (€2m vs €8m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
ON (18)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
AEK Larnaca and Pafos have a similar defence value (both €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →