AEL are riding a win to face Anorthosis, who just fell to a 0-1 defeat. The model sees a 38 % chance of a home win, a 31 % draw and a 31 % away win, making a home win the favourite. The expected total is 2.3 goals, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 28 %. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 14.6 % probability. AEL average home scoring is 1.14 goals and conceding 1.43 against similar opposition, while Anorthosis averages 0.55 away goals scored and 1.0 conceded. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (99.8 %), Under 6.5 (99.1 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.4 %), Home under 2.5 HT goals (98.0 % with a 7 % edge), Away under 3.5 goals (97.7 % with a 6 % edge), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.5 % with a 6 % edge), Home under 2.5 2H goals (97.3 % with a 9 % edge) and Under 5.5 (97.2 % with a 7 % edge).
Results analysis
AEL’s 2-0 victory over Anorthosis confirmed the model’s prediction, with the home side extending a two-game winning streak. The model had picked a home win with a 38% probability, and that call proved correct. The final score of 2-0 matched the actual result, and the match’s total goals fell well below the expected 2.3. Every suggested pick hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.8%, Under 6.5 at 99.1%, Away under 2.5 HT goals at 98.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 98.1%, Away under 3.5 goals at 97.7%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%, Home under 2.5 2H goals at 97.2%, and Under 5.5 at 97.2%. The model’s selections performed exceptionally well.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEL win✓ Hit
37.9%
Avg Implied 44.1% · @ 2.07
Edge
-6.3%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
2.17
Dafabet
2.17
10Bet
2.10
William Hil
2.10
SBO
2.09
Draw✗ Miss
31.2%
Avg Implied 28.9% · @ 3.17
Edge
+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.26
Bet365
3.25
Betfair
3.25
1xBet
3.24
Marathonbet
3.24
Anorthosis win✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied 27.0% · @ 3.39
Edge
+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Bet365
3.80
Betano
3.60
Pinnacle
3.54
1xBet
3.52
Marathonbet
3.50
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.40
1.27
1.40
1.20
1.40
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.11
0.80
1.60
0.50
2.75
vs Similar (18)
1.33
1.22
1.25
1.50
1.40
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.33
2.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.23
1.60
1.20
0.60
1.27
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
1.50
0.67
2.33
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (21)
1.05
1.24
1.70
1.10
0.45
1.36
vs Weaker (3)
2.67
0.67
2.50
0.00
3.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
67.5%
@ 1.34-1.5%
Under 1.5
32.5%
@ 2.99+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.37
Unibet
1.36
Betfair
1.36
10Bet
1.36
Pinnacle
1.34
Under
Bet365
3.25
BetVictor
3.10
Betfair
3.10
Pinnacle
3.06
Superbet
3.05
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
39.6%
@ 2.11-4.6%
Under 2.5
60.4%
@ 1.67+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
SBO
2.16
10Bet
2.15
Pinnacle
2.13
Betano
2.12
1xBet
2.11
Under
Bet365
1.70
Betano
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
Pinnacle
1.69
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
19.5%
@ 3.75-5.2%
Under 3.5
80.5%
@ 1.23+5.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betfair
4.10
BetVictor
3.90
10Bet
3.90
Bet365
3.75
Unibet
3.70
Under
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
47.2%
@ 1.85-2.6%
No
52.8%
@ 1.83+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Betfair
1.87
BetVictor
1.85
William Hil
1.85
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
No
Superbet
1.88
Betfair
1.87
1xBet
1.85
Betano
1.85
William Hil
1.85
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.78+6.9%
0-0
11.7%@ 7.90+6.0%
1-0
11.1%@ 6.18+3.9%
0-1
9.7%@ 8.53+4.5%
2-1
8.0%@ 8.25+2.6%
2-0 ✓
7.5%@ 8.80+2.4%
1-2
7.1%@ 11.01+3.0%
0-2
5.9%@ 16.01+3.1%
AEL goals ↓
Anorthosis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
12%
9.7%
5.9%
2.1%
0.6%
1
11%
15%
7.1%
2.5%
0.7%
2
7.5%
8.0%
4.3%
1.5%
0.4%
3
3.0%
3.2%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.9%
1.0%
0.5%
0.2%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Anorthosis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.42
AEK Larnaca
1.92
Apollon Limassol
1.86
Pafos
1.72
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Aris
1.42
Anorthosis
1.36
AEL
1.33
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Nea Salamis
1.21
Krasava Ypsonas
1.21
Olympiakos
1.21
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.10
Karmiotissa
1.00
AEL is 0.03 points worse than Anorthosis in terms of average points per game (1.33 vs 1.36).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
2.44
Pafos
1.83
AEK Larnaca
1.72
Aris
1.69
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.44
AEL
1.24
Nea Salamis
1.14
Krasava Ypsonas
1.09
Anorthosis
1.06
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.03
Olympiakos
0.97
Omonia Aradippou
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.94
AEL is 0.18 goals better than Anorthosis in terms of goals scored per game (1.24 vs 1.06).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Omonia Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.92
Pafos
1.06
Apollon Limassol
1.14
Anorthosis
1.21
Aris
1.25
Apoel Nicosia
1.25
Omonia Aradippou
1.27
Krasava Ypsonas
1.33
Olympiakos
1.33
AEL
1.39
Nea Salamis
1.52
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.68
Karmiotissa
1.85
AEL is 0.18 goals worse than Anorthosis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.39 vs 1.21).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
55%
Olympiakos
54%
Apoel Nicosia
54%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Aris
52%
Omonia Nicosia
51%
Anorthosis
50%
AEK Larnaca
49%
AEL
49%
Krasava Ypsonas
47%
Omonia Aradippou
43%
AEL is 0.8 percentage points worse than Anorthosis in terms of average possession (49% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEL
For 3.4 · Against 2.7 · Total 6.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 2.2 · Total 4.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.5 · Against 17.6 · Total 30.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Anorthosis
For 4.9 · Against 3.8 · Total 8.7
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.3 · Against 3.0 · Total 5.3
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 17.4 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.4
7.9
6.7
1.3
1.3
1.3
30.3
28.9
32.2
vs Stronger (15)
8.4
8.0
9.0
1.5
1.7
1.2
29.2
27.7
31.5
vs Similar (30)
6.2
7.0
5.5
1.4
1.4
1.4
31.6
30.8
32.5
vs Weaker (5)
11.0
11.0
-
0.4
0.5
0.0
25.0
25.0
-
% over line
36%
38%
33%
18%
16%
20%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
64%
62%
67%
82%
84%
80%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.2
9.3
9.0
1.9
2.6
1.0
29.7
29.9
29.3
vs Stronger (8)
7.5
9.0
6.0
1.2
1.5
1.0
28.0
33.0
23.0
vs Similar (37)
9.2
9.2
9.2
2.0
2.9
1.0
30.9
30.9
31.0
vs Weaker (5)
10.3
10.0
11.0
2.0
2.3
1.5
24.3
22.0
29.0
% over line
48%
47%
50%
28%
38%
17%
100%
100%
100%
% under line
52%
53%
50%
72%
62%
83%
0%
0%
0%
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
10.6
Nea Salamis
10.2
Omonia Nicosia
10.0
Krasava Ypsonas
9.9
Apoel Nicosia
9.8
Aris
9.7
Pafos
9.6
AEL
9.3
Karmiotissa
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.2
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Anorthosis
8.7
Olympiakos
8.2
Omonia Aradippou
7.8
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Aris
5.7
Anorthosis
5.3
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.3
Omonia Aradippou
5.2
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
AEK Larnaca
5.1
Pafos
4.9
Apollon Limassol
4.9
AEL
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.7
Karmiotissa
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
Olympiakos
4.4
Krasava Ypsonas
3.9
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.5
Omonia Aradippou
28.9
Olympiakos
27.8
AEL
27.6
Apoel Nicosia
27.2
Karmiotissa
27.0
Aris
26.2
Pafos
26.1
AEK Larnaca
26.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
25.1
Nea Salamis
25.0
Omonia Nicosia
24.9
Krasava Ypsonas
24.3
Apollon Limassol
24.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
36.7%
@ 2.10-7.5%
Under 9.5
63.3%
@ 1.66+7.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.14
Betano
2.12
Superbet
2.07
10Bet
2.05
Under
Superbet
1.68
10Bet
1.67
Betano
1.67
1xBet
1.62
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
63.8%
Under 3.5
36.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.2%
Under 21.5
12.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
AEL or Draw✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied 73.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-4.1%
38%
31%
31%
covers AEL + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.31
Superbet
1.30
William Hil
1.29
BetVictor
1.29
1xBet
1.27
AEL or Anorthosis✓ Hit
68.8%
Avg Implied 71.7% · @ 1.29
Edge
-2.9%
38%
31%
31%
covers AEL + Anorthosis
Best 5 market prices
William Hil
1.35
Bet365
1.33
Betano
1.32
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Draw or Anorthosis✗ Miss
62.1%
Avg Implied 55.1% · @ 1.68
Edge
+7.0%
38%
31%
31%
covers Draw + Anorthosis
Best 5 market prices
Betano
1.78
Bet365
1.73
SBO
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
1xBet
1.69
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
AEL over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
70.0%
@ 1.25-3.8%
Under
30.0%
@ 3.54+3.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
Under
Bet365
3.75
BetVictor
3.60
Betano
3.55
1xBet
3.50
Superbet
3.50
AEL over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
33.9%
@ 2.22-8.0%
Under
66.1%
@ 1.60+8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.25
Superbet
2.25
Marathonbet
2.23
Pinnacle
2.21
Betano
2.20
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
Betano
1.62
Bet365
1.62
Marathonbet
1.61
BetVictor
1.60
AEL over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
12.1%
@ 4.82-7.0%
Under
87.9%
@ 1.14+7.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
5.00
1xBet
5.00
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Betano
4.55
Under
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
AEL over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.4%
@ 9.90-6.0%
Under
96.6%
@ 1.03+6.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
12.00
1xBet
9.60
Bet365
9.00
Betano
9.00
Under
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
Anorthosis over/under 0.5Actual: Under
Over
65.6%
@ 1.46+2.2%
Under
34.4%
@ 2.54-2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
1.50
Pinnacle
1.50
Betano
1.50
1xBet
1.45
BetVictor
1.45
Under
Superbet
2.65
BetVictor
2.55
Pinnacle
2.55
1xBet
2.51
10Bet
2.50
Anorthosis over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
28.8%
@ 3.19-0.2%
Under
71.2%
@ 1.31+0.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
3.50
Marathonbet
3.26
Betano
3.25
BetVictor
3.25
10Bet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
Anorthosis over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
9.3%
@ 8.02-2.3%
Under
90.7%
@ 1.05+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.80
1xBet
8.40
Bet365
8.00
Betano
7.50
Superbet
7.40
Under
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Anorthosis over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 15.83-3.7%
Under
97.7%
@ 1.01+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Bet365
15.00
Betano
12.50
Under
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to AEL, so a minus line means AEL give that many goals of a start and Anorthosis receive them. At -1, AEL must win by two or more to land; a one-goal AEL win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (AEL)Actual: Draw
AEL -2
5.6%
@ 8.37-5.0%
Draw -2
11.3%
@ 5.83-4.0%
Anorthosis +2
83.1%
@ 1.20+9.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
8.60
Marathonbet
8.50
Bet365
8.00
Draw
Marathonbet
6.10
Superbet
5.90
Bet365
5.50
Away
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
Handicap -1 (AEL)Actual: AEL
AEL -1
16.9%
@ 3.99-5.6%
Draw -1
21.0%
@ 3.69-3.3%
Anorthosis +1
62.1%
@ 1.68+8.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
10Bet
4.20
Superbet
4.10
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.88
Bet365
3.75
Draw
Betfair
3.75
Bet365
3.75
Superbet
3.70
Marathonbet
3.64
10Bet
3.60
Away
Bet365
1.73
Marathonbet
1.69
10Bet
1.67
Betfair
1.67
Superbet
1.65
Handicap +1 (AEL)Actual: AEL
AEL +1
69.0%
@ 1.28-1.3%
Draw +1
18.4%
@ 5.08+0.8%
Anorthosis -1
12.6%
@ 7.50+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.27
Bet365
1.25
Draw
Bet365
5.50
Marathonbet
5.00
Superbet
4.75
Away
Bet365
8.00
Marathonbet
7.80
Superbet
6.70
Handicap +2 (AEL)Actual: AEL
AEL +2
87.4%
@ 1.06+1.2%
Draw +2
8.8%
@ 10.30-0.1%
Anorthosis -2
3.7%
@ 19.00-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Draw
Bet365
12.00
Superbet
8.60
Away
Bet365
21.00
Superbet
17.00
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.27
0.73
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (9)
0.00
0.89
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.61
0.56
0.38
0.75
0.80
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.00
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.60
0.60
0.67
0.27
0.53
vs Stronger (6)
0.33
0.83
0.33
1.33
0.33
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.38
0.52
0.60
0.60
0.18
0.45
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.8%
@ 1.43+3.0%
Under 0.5
32.2%
@ 2.63-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.50
BetVictor
1.44
Bet365
1.44
Pinnacle
1.43
Marathonbet
1.43
Under
Betfair
2.75
William Hil
2.75
Pinnacle
2.67
Superbet
2.67
Bet365
2.62
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
29.3%
@ 2.98-1.8%
Under 1.5
70.7%
@ 1.34+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
3.15
Pinnacle
3.02
Betfair
3.00
Bet365
3.00
1xBet
2.99
Under
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Betano
1.35
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
9.5%
@ 7.60-2.7%
Under 2.5
90.5%
@ 1.06+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
BetVictor
8.50
William Hil
8.00
Betfair
8.00
Bet365
7.50
Superbet
7.30
Under
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.6%
@ 1.97-3.6%
Under
56.4%
@ 1.76+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
2.02
Superbet
1.97
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.95
1xBet
1.95
Under
Pinnacle
1.81
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.74
Superbet
1.74
1xBet
1.74
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.9%
@ 6.08-4.3%
Under
89.1%
@ 1.09+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.00
Betano
5.70
Under
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.9%
@ 15.88-4.1%
Under
98.1%
@ 1.02+4.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Betano
11.75
Under
Betano
1.02
Anorthosis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
41.5%
@ 2.51+4.6%
Under
58.5%
@ 1.47-4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.60
Betano
2.57
Marathonbet
2.49
1xBet
2.49
Superbet
2.42
Under
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Betano
1.47
1xBet
1.46
Marathonbet
1.46
Anorthosis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
9.9%
@ 9.03-0.4%
Under
90.1%
@ 1.04+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.90
Marathonbet
9.90
Superbet
8.30
Betano
8.00
Under
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Anorthosis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.4%
@ 34.00-98.6%
Under
98.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
34.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
0.80
1.00
0.67
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
1.22
0.80
0.60
0.50
2.00
vs Similar (18)
0.72
0.67
0.88
0.75
0.60
0.60
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.33
2.00
0.50
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Anorthosis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Anorthosis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.63
1.00
0.53
0.33
0.73
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.67
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.33
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.71
1.10
0.50
0.27
0.91
vs Weaker (3)
1.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
73.5%
@ 1.27+0.5%
Under 0.5
26.5%
@ 3.44-0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
Under
1xBet
3.60
Bet365
3.50
Betano
3.50
Superbet
3.45
Marathonbet
3.35
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
38.1%
@ 2.29-2.5%
Under 1.5
61.9%
@ 1.57+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
10Bet
2.35
1xBet
2.31
Marathonbet
2.31
William Hil
2.30
Betano
2.27
Under
Betano
1.62
Superbet
1.58
Bet365
1.57
Marathonbet
1.56
1xBet
1.56
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.6%
@ 5.00-4.0%
Under 2.5
85.4%
@ 1.14+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Bet365
5.50
William Hil
5.00
Superbet
5.00
Betano
4.80
1xBet
4.70
Under
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
48.5%
@ 1.70-6.1%
Under
51.5%
@ 2.04+6.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.73
1xBet
1.70
Marathonbet
1.69
Betano
1.67
Under
Betano
2.10
1xBet
2.03
Marathonbet
2.02
Superbet
2.00
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.4%
@ 4.39-5.7%
Under
84.6%
@ 1.17+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.55
Superbet
4.50
1xBet
4.40
Betano
4.10
Under
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 11.62-5.3%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+5.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
14.00
Betano
9.25
Under
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
Anorthosis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.8%
@ 2.06+3.9%
Under
51.2%
@ 1.68-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.10
Betano
2.07
1xBet
2.06
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.71
Betano
1.70
1xBet
1.68
Marathonbet
1.64
Anorthosis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
15.1%
@ 6.47+0.8%
Under
84.9%
@ 1.08-0.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.20
1xBet
6.60
Superbet
6.10
Betano
6.00
Under
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
Anorthosis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.8%
@ 16.50-3.0%
Under
97.2%
@ 1.02+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Betano
12.00
Under
Betano
1.02
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.1%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+4.1%
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.7%
1.01
Bet365
1.01
Betano
1.01
-
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.02
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.04
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.2%
1.02
Betano
1.03
Bet365
1.02
1xBet
1.02
Betfair
1.01
Superbet
1.01
+4.5%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
96.6%
1.03
Betano
1.04
Bet365
1.04
Superbet
1.02
1xBet
1.01
-
+6.0%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
94.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
92.0%
1.06
Betano
1.09
Bet365
1.08
Superbet
1.07
Betfair
1.07
BetVictor
1.05
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
90.7%
1.05
Betano
1.07
Bet365
1.06
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
+2.3%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
90.5%
1.06
Betano
1.08
Bet365
1.07
William Hil
1.07
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.1%
1.04
Betano
1.06
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.09
Betano
1.12
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.08
Marathonbet
1.08
-
+4.3%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
87.9%
1.14
Bet365
1.17
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
BetVictor
1.13
Marathonbet
1.13
+7.0%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.4%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
Bet365
1.06
-
-
-
+1.2%
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 2.5 2H goals
85.4%
1.14
Betano
1.17
Superbet
1.14
Bet365
1.14
1xBet
1.14
William Hil
1.12
+4.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
84.9%
1.08
Betano
1.11
Superbet
1.09
1xBet
1.07
Marathonbet
1.06
-
-0.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
84.6%
1.17
Betano
1.21
Superbet
1.16
Marathonbet
1.16
1xBet
1.16
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
83.5%
1.19
Betano
1.22
1xBet
1.16
-
-
-
+6.4%
-
Away +2 handicap
83.1%
1.20
Bet365
1.22
Superbet
1.20
Marathonbet
1.18
-
-
+9.0%
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
80.5%
1.23
Betano
1.26
Superbet
1.25
Bet365
1.25
BetVictor
1.22
10Bet
1.22
+5.2%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
76.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
74.6%
1.39
Superbet
1.43
Betano
1.39
1xBet
1.34
-
-
+8.0%
-
Over 0.5 2H goals
73.5%
1.27
William Hil
1.30
Betano
1.29
Bet365
1.28
Marathonbet
1.27
Superbet
1.26
+0.5%
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
72.2%
1.67
Betano
1.67
-
-
-
-
+16.3%
-
Away under 1.5 goals
71.2%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Betano
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
BetVictor
1.30
+0.2%
✓ Hit
Under 1.5 HT goals
70.7%
1.34
Superbet
1.36
William Hil
1.36
Bet365
1.36
BetVictor
1.35
Betano
1.35
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
70.0%
1.25
Betano
1.27
Superbet
1.26
BetVictor
1.25
Bet365
1.25
1xBet
1.25
-3.8%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEL · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zakaria Sawo44%
Luther Singh40%
Morgan Ferrier33%
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Andreas Makris27%
Sérgio Conceição27%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Fernando Forestieri17%
Léo Natel12%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Morgan Ferrier67%
Július Szőke62%
Dušan Stevanović33%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe29%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Sérgio Conceição18%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Guillermo Ochoa12%
Léo Natel12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sérgio Conceição27%
Léo Natel25%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Léo Natel12%
Luka Bogdan12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Andreas Makris9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Nemanja Glavčić0%
Sérgio Conceição0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
Anorthosis · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Rafael Lopes50%
Stefano Sensi43%
Stefan Vukić20%
Kiko18%
Andreas Chrysostomou15%
Andreas Karamanolis14%
Gabriel Furtado14%
Clifford Aboagye10%
Marios Ilia9%
Roman Bezus0%
Babacar Dione0%
Kostakis Artymatas0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Constantinos Panagi0%
Michalis Ioannou0%
Tamás Kiss0%
Alessio Da Cruz0%
Emil Bergström0%
Jacob Karlstrøm0%
Nemanja Tošić0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Demetris Theodorou0%
Evagoras Charalampous0%
Elián Sosa0%
Stijn Middendorp0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Alessio Da Cruz33%
Elián Sosa27%
Stefano Sensi21%
Gabriel Furtado21%
Danil Paroutis20%
Demetris Theodorou20%
Marios Ilia18%
Kiko18%
Evagoras Charalampous17%
Andreas Karamanolis14%
Nemanja Tošić12%
Tamás Kiss11%
Clifford Aboagye10%
Stefan Vukić10%
Emil Bergström8%
Konstantinos Sergiou8%
Andreas Chrysostomou8%
Roman Bezus0%
Babacar Dione0%
Kostakis Artymatas0%
Constantinos Panagi0%
Michalis Ioannou0%
Jacob Karlstrøm0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Stijn Middendorp0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Stefano Sensi36%
Kiko27%
Simranjit Thandi14%
Roman Bezus0%
Babacar Dione0%
Andreas Karamanolis0%
Kostakis Artymatas0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Constantinos Panagi0%
Michalis Ioannou0%
Marios Ilia0%
Tamás Kiss0%
Alessio Da Cruz0%
Clifford Aboagye0%
Emil Bergström0%
Jacob Karlstrøm0%
Rafael Lopes0%
Nemanja Tošić0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Gabriel Furtado0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Stefan Vukić0%
Demetris Theodorou0%
Andreas Chrysostomou0%
Evagoras Charalampous0%
Elián Sosa0%
Stijn Middendorp0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Danil Paroutis20%
Elián Sosa18%
Rafael Lopes17%
Stefano Sensi14%
Marios Ilia9%
Gabriel Furtado7%
Roman Bezus0%
Babacar Dione0%
Andreas Karamanolis0%
Kostakis Artymatas0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Constantinos Panagi0%
Michalis Ioannou0%
Tamás Kiss0%
Alessio Da Cruz0%
Clifford Aboagye0%
Emil Bergström0%
Jacob Karlstrøm0%
Kiko0%
Nemanja Tošić0%
Tobias Schättin0%
Simranjit Thandi0%
Stefan Vukić0%
Demetris Theodorou0%
Andreas Chrysostomou0%
Evagoras Charalampous0%
Stijn Middendorp0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KY (20)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
AEL's squad is €2m more valuable than Anorthosis's (€9m vs €7m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
KY (8)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
AEL's attack is €2m more valuable than Anorthosis's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
KY (4)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
OLY (2)
€0m
AEL and Anorthosis have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
OLY (8)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
KY (8)
€1m
AEL and Anorthosis have a similar defence value (both €3m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Omonia 29is Maiou
AEK Larnaca
Olympiakos
Nea Salamis
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Omonia Aradippou
Omonia Nicosia
Apoel Nicosia
Karmiotissa
Krasava Ypsonas