This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
2.00
0.87
2.13
0.73
1.87
1.00
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
1.19
1.12
0.86
0.86
1.44
1.33
vs Weaker (13)
3.00
0.54
3.43
0.57
2.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (24%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
79.6%
Under 1.5
20.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
55.3%
Under 2.5
44.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
32.9%
Under 3.5
67.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.9%
No
43.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.1%
1-2 â
9.8%
0-2
8.8%
0-1
8.8%
0-0
6.6%
2-1
6.1%
1-3
5.8%
2-2
5.4%
AEL goals ↓
Apoel Nicosia goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
6.6%
8.8%
8.8%
5.2%
2.3%
1
5.0%
12%
9.8%
5.8%
2.6%
2
3.4%
6.1%
5.4%
3.2%
1.4%
3
1.3%
2.3%
2.0%
1.2%
0.5%
4
0.4%
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Apoel Nicosia goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
AEL is 0.29 points worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.47).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
AEL is 0.49 goals worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.64).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
AEL is 0.61 goals worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.00).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
AEL is 13.8 percentage points worse than Apoel Nicosia in terms of average possession (44% vs 58%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEL
For 5.8 · Against 4.6 · Total 10.4
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 3.0
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 15.4 · Total 28.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apoel Nicosia
For 5.0 · Against 3.2 · Total 8.2
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.5
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.7 · Against 13.3 · Total 26.0
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.3
11.0
1.8
1.7
2.0
25.5
24.2
27.0
vs Stronger (14)
10.2
9.8
10.8
2.3
1.8
3.0
25.5
23.2
27.8
vs Similar (32)
10.8
10.6
11.2
1.8
1.7
1.9
25.3
24.3
26.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
64%
58%
70%
30%
27%
33%
86%
83%
90%
% under line
36%
42%
30%
70%
73%
67%
14%
17%
10%
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
8.9
9.8
3.0
3.3
2.6
27.5
26.8
28.6
vs Stronger (1)
6.0
6.0
-
7.0
7.0
-
27.0
27.0
-
vs Similar (33)
9.0
8.6
9.4
3.5
3.7
3.2
29.3
29.1
29.6
vs Weaker (16)
10.3
10.0
11.0
1.8
2.1
1.4
24.0
23.2
25.7
% over line
43%
31%
58%
44%
48%
40%
86%
88%
83%
% under line
57%
69%
42%
56%
52%
60%
14%
12%
17%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.9
Nea Salamis
10.2
AEL
9.9
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Aris
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.4
Omonia Aradippou
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.2
Anorthosis
9.0
Enosis
8.8
Pafos
8.3
Ethnikos Achna
8.2
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
6.0
Omonia 29is Maiou
5.8
Aris
5.4
Anorthosis
5.3
Pafos
5.1
Apoel Nicosia
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.0
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.7
Nea Salamis
4.6
AEL
4.5
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Enosis
28.8
Anorthosis
28.7
Apoel Nicosia
28.6
AEL
27.0
Ethnikos Achna
26.8
Karmiotissa
26.6
Omonia Aradippou
26.4
Pafos
25.9
Aris
25.7
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.2
Nea Salamis
24.9
Omonia 29is Maiou
24.6
Omonia Nicosia
24.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
47.6%
Under 9.5
52.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
67.3%
Under 3.5
32.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
87.5%
Under 21.5
12.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.60
1.00
0.33
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.25
1.25
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.50
1.18
0.18
0.67
0.89
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
53% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.40
0.87
0.27
0.60
0.53
vs Stronger (1)
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.38
0.56
0.14
0.29
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (13)
1.08
0.23
1.43
0.29
0.67
0.17
Clean sheet %
70% (+39pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.17
0.73
1.40
0.67
0.93
vs Stronger (8)
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.85
1.00
1.18
0.89
0.44
vs Weaker (2)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
33% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Apoel Nicosia) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apoel Nicosia
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.27
0.47
1.27
0.47
1.27
0.47
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
vs Similar (16)
0.81
0.56
0.71
0.57
0.89
0.56
vs Weaker (13)
1.92
0.31
2.00
0.29
1.83
0.33
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apoel Nicosia over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
94.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
87.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
79.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
77.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Apoel Nicosia
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Anastasios Donis36%
Pizzi30%
Stefan DraÅūiÄ29%
David Abagna29%
Youssef El Arabi28%
Konstantinos Laifis27%
Georgi Kostadinov17%
Gabriel Maioli14%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Marius Corbu8%
Marquinhos8%
Xavi Quintilla6%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ5%
Issam Chebake5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Radosav PetroviÄ0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Max Meyer0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Vid Belec0%
IvÃĄn Alejo0%
Sergio Tejera0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lautaro Cano33%
Evagoras Antoniou25%
Pieros Sotiriou20%
Dieumerci Ndongala20%
Issam Chebake20%
Kingsley Sarfo20%
Radosav PetroviÄ18%
Konstantinos Laifis18%
Sergio Tejera18%
David Abagna18%
Georgi Kostadinov17%
Lasha Dvali15%
Anastasios Donis14%
Giannis Satsias14%
Xavi Quintilla12%
Stefan DraÅūiÄ12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Youssef El Arabi11%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ11%
Algassime Bah9%
Vid Belec9%
Max Meyer8%
Marius Corbu8%
Marquinhos8%
Pizzi0%
IvÃĄn Alejo0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Anastasios Donis29%
Sergio Tejera23%
Youssef El Arabi17%
Gabriel Maioli14%
Xavi Quintilla12%
Stefan DraÅūiÄ12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Pizzi10%
Radosav PetroviÄ9%
Lasha Dvali8%
David Abagna6%
Konstantinos Laifis5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Marquinhos0%
Max Meyer0%
Vid Belec0%
IvÃĄn Alejo0%
Issam Chebake0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Marius Corbu0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Anastasios Donis29%
Youssef El Arabi22%
David Abagna18%
Marquinhos15%
Stefan DraÅūiÄ12%
Konstantinos Galanopoulos11%
Pizzi10%
Marius Corbu8%
Konstantinos Laifis5%
Pieros Sotiriou0%
Radosav PetroviÄ0%
Xavi Quintilla0%
Dieumerci Ndongala0%
Max Meyer0%
Lasha Dvali0%
Vid Belec0%
IvÃĄn Alejo0%
Sergio Tejera0%
Issam Chebake0%
Georgi Kostadinov0%
Paris Polikarpou0%
Kingsley Sarfo0%
Mateo SuÅĄiÄ0%
Giannis Satsias0%
Lautaro Cano0%
Evagoras Antoniou0%
Algassime Bah0%
Gabriel Maioli0%
Panagiotis Kattirtzis0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
AEL's squad is €6m less valuable than Apoel Nicosia's (€9m vs €15m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's attack is €4m less valuable than Apoel Nicosia's (€4m vs €8m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
AEL and Apoel Nicosia have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's defence is €2m less valuable than Apoel Nicosia's (€3m vs €5m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou