This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
0.93
1.62
0.69
1.29
1.21
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
1.40
1.10
1.64
0.73
1.11
1.56
vs Weaker (10)
1.60
0.60
1.60
0.60
1.60
0.60
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (23%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
82.6%
Under 1.5
17.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
59.9%
Under 2.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
37.6%
Under 3.5
62.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
63.1%
No
36.9%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.9%
2-1
8.8%
1-2
8.0%
2-2
6.5%
1-0
6.2%
2-0
5.9%
0-0
5.6%
0-1 â
5.6%
AEL goals ↓
Apollon Limassol goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.6%
5.6%
4.9%
2.4%
0.9%
1
6.2%
12%
8.0%
3.9%
1.4%
2
5.9%
8.8%
6.5%
3.2%
1.2%
3
3.2%
4.7%
3.5%
1.7%
0.6%
4
1.3%
1.9%
1.4%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Apollon Limassol goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
AEL is 0.10 points worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 1.28).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
AEL is 0.12 goals better than Apollon Limassol in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 1.03).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
AEL is 0.52 goals worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.08).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
AEL is 8.2 percentage points worse than Apollon Limassol in terms of average possession (44% vs 53%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEL
For 6.1 · Against 4.0 · Total 10.1
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.4 · Against 2.9 · Total 4.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 15.0 · Total 26.8
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Apollon Limassol
For 5.7 · Against 2.7 · Total 8.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.2 · Against 13.1 · Total 24.3
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.9
10.2
2.5
2.2
2.9
25.9
25.2
26.6
vs Stronger (13)
10.1
9.8
10.4
3.2
2.0
4.5
24.8
23.2
26.0
vs Similar (33)
10.8
11.4
10.1
2.5
2.4
2.6
26.4
25.9
27.0
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
67%
64%
69%
42%
36%
48%
81%
79%
85%
% under line
33%
36%
31%
58%
64%
52%
19%
21%
15%
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
10.8
8.6
2.9
3.0
2.7
23.8
24.9
22.6
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (34)
9.8
10.2
9.3
3.0
3.1
2.9
24.1
25.3
22.6
vs Weaker (16)
9.7
12.5
7.4
2.6
3.0
2.3
23.2
24.0
22.6
% over line
48%
60%
36%
44%
44%
44%
69%
80%
57%
% under line
52%
40%
64%
56%
56%
56%
31%
20%
43%
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.9
Nea Salamis
10.1
AEL
9.8
Omonia Aradippou
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Apoel Nicosia
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.3
Aris
9.3
Enosis
9.1
Anorthosis
8.9
Pafos
8.5
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia 29is Maiou
7.5
Omonia Aradippou
7.5
Apoel Nicosia
5.6
Aris
5.4
Pafos
5.3
Anorthosis
5.3
Apollon Limassol
5.2
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.6
AEL
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.2
Anorthosis
28.7
Enosis
28.5
Omonia 29is Maiou
27.5
Karmiotissa
26.8
AEL
26.7
Ethnikos Achna
26.1
Pafos
25.9
Aris
25.8
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Apollon Limassol
25.3
Omonia Aradippou
25.2
Nea Salamis
25.1
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Over
Over 9.5
50.4%
Under 9.5
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
70.2%
Under 3.5
29.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.4%
Under 21.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.80
1.00
0.47
0.53
1.13
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.43
0.50
0.75
0.33
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.00
0.70
1.30
0.40
0.70
1.00
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+13pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.33
0.67
0.20
0.60
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.65
0.40
0.90
0.30
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (10)
0.60
0.20
0.20
0.00
1.00
0.40
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.93
0.93
1.13
1.20
0.73
0.67
vs Stronger (7)
0.29
1.57
0.50
1.75
0.00
1.33
vs Similar (20)
1.20
0.75
1.50
1.10
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Apollon Limassol) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Apollon Limassol
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.67
0.87
0.53
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (20)
0.60
0.80
0.60
0.50
0.60
1.10
vs Weaker (10)
1.00
0.40
1.40
0.60
0.60
0.20
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Apollon Limassol over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 1.5
82.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
73.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
70.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Apollon Limassol
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Diego Dorregaray40%
Clinton Duodu25%
Charles Boli17%
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
JaromÃr Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Å poljariÄ0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Babacar Dione0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Ãngelo Sagal0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Clinton Duodu75%
Diego Dorregaray40%
Chambos Kyriakou33%
Giorgos Malekkidis33%
Bruno Santos33%
Praxitelis Vouros29%
Israel Coll25%
Ãngelo Sagal25%
Thomas Lam25%
Danilo Å poljariÄ17%
Sessi D'Almeida17%
Charles Boli17%
Quentin Boisgard17%
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
JaromÃr Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Babacar Dione0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Gaetan Weissbeck14%
JaromÃr Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Å poljariÄ0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Diego Dorregaray0%
Babacar Dione0%
Giorgos Malekkidis0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Charles Boli0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Ãngelo Sagal0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
Clinton Duodu0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ãngelo Sagal50%
Diego Dorregaray40%
Gaetan Weissbeck29%
Clinton Duodu25%
Giorgos Malekkidis17%
JaromÃr Zmrhal0%
Pedro Marques0%
Chambos Kyriakou0%
Danilo Å poljariÄ0%
Sessi D'Almeida0%
Babacar Dione0%
Praxitelis Vouros0%
Charles Boli0%
Quentin Boisgard0%
Israel Coll0%
Thomas Lam0%
Bruno Santos0%
Peter Leeuwenburgh0%
Ali Youssef0%
Julien Celestine0%
Carlos Barahona0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
AEL's squad is €7m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€9m vs €15m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's attack is €3m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€4m vs €7m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
AEL and Apollon Limassol have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's defence is €3m less valuable than Apollon Limassol's (€3m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Nea Salamis
Omonia 29is Maiou