Defensive solidity will shape the early minutes as AEL’s 35% chance of victory sits alongside a 35% draw probability and a 30% chance for Ne Salamis. The model favours a tight home win, and the expected total of 1.9 goals points to a low-scoring affair. The single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 16.7% probability, even though the model’s most likely total of two goals carries a 28% chance. AEL’s recent form - two consecutive wins capped by a 2-0 triumph over Anorthosis - suggests a solid defensive display, while Ne Salamis, after a 3-3 draw with Olympiakos, will look to limit their 1.0 average goals scored and 1.5 conceded against similar opposition. The model’s selections reinforce the low-scoring narrative: Under 3.5 goals at 87.9% and Under 2.5 at 71.0%. These picks underscore the expectation that the match will stay tight, with AEL edging the contest.
Results analysis
The match saw AEL extend their two-game winning streak, securing a 1-0 victory over Nea Salamis. The model’s favourite, a home win, was correct, and the predicted final score of 1-0 matched reality. The pre-match probability for a home win was 35%. The model’s selections also performed well: the Under 3.5 goal pick, with an 87.9% probability, hit, as did the Under 2.5 goal pick at 71.0%. All outcomes were settled, and the model’s forecast proved accurate across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEL win✓ Hit
34.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
34.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis win✗ Miss
30.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.71
0.86
0.67
1.00
0.75
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.50
-
-
1.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.50
0.50
1.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
0.86
1.33
0.67
0.75
1.00
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.50
-
-
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (4)
1.25
1.25
1.50
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
29% (-2pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
57.3%
Under 1.5
42.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
29.0%
Under 2.5
71.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
12.1%
Under 3.5
87.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
38.3%
No
61.7%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
16.7%
1-1
14.8%
1-0 ✓
13.7%
0-1
12.4%
2-0
7.4%
2-1
6.6%
0-2
6.1%
1-2
6.0%
AEL goals ↓
Nea Salamis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
17%
12%
6.1%
1.8%
0.4%
1
14%
15%
6.0%
1.8%
0.4%
2
7.4%
6.6%
3.0%
0.9%
0.2%
3
2.4%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Nea Salamis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Aris
2.06
Apoel Nicosia
1.97
AEK Larnaca
1.83
Apollon Limassol
1.77
Pafos
1.75
Anorthosis
1.57
Nea Salamis
1.45
Omonia Nicosia
1.36
AEL
1.26
Karmiotissa
1.20
Doxa
0.97
Enosis
0.93
Akritas
0.85
Olympiakos
0.70
AEL is 0.19 points worse than Nea Salamis in terms of average points per game (1.26 vs 1.45).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.67
AEK Larnaca
1.53
Apoel Nicosia
1.44
Apollon Limassol
1.34
Anorthosis
1.30
Nea Salamis
1.27
Omonia Nicosia
1.19
Enosis
1.00
Akritas
0.93
Karmiotissa
0.90
AEL
0.90
Doxa
0.80
Olympiakos
0.75
AEL is 0.38 goals worse than Nea Salamis in terms of goals scored per game (0.90 vs 1.27).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.72
Aris
0.78
Pafos
0.83
AEL
1.03
AEK Larnaca
1.03
Apollon Limassol
1.06
Anorthosis
1.07
Omonia Nicosia
1.17
Enosis
1.30
Karmiotissa
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.38
Doxa
1.40
Olympiakos
1.55
Akritas
1.82
AEL is 0.35 goals better than Nea Salamis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.03 vs 1.38).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Omonia Nicosia
56%
AEK Larnaca
55%
Anorthosis
55%
Akritas
55%
Olympiakos
52%
Enosis
52%
Karmiotissa
50%
Apoel Nicosia
49%
Doxa
46%
AEL
45%
Pafos
45%
Aris
44%
Nea Salamis
40%
AEL is 4.7 percentage points better than Nea Salamis in terms of average possession (45% vs 40%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEL
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
Nea Salamis
🚩 Corners
No recent corners data for this league.
🟨 Cards
No recent cards data for this league.
⚠️ Fouls
No recent fouls data for this league.
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (3)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (2)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (7)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Stronger (2)
-
-
-
0.0
-
0.0
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
-
-
-
0%
0%
0%
-
-
-
% under line
-
-
-
100%
100%
100%
-
-
-
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
AEK Larnaca
10.8
Aris
10.0
Apollon Limassol
9.8
Apoel Nicosia
9.5
Omonia Nicosia
9.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
AEK Larnaca
5.5
Aris
5.0
Apollon Limassol
4.8
Omonia Nicosia
4.2
Apoel Nicosia
4.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
AEK Larnaca
30.7
Omonia Nicosia
19.5
Apollon Limassol
19.2
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
0.0%
Under 9.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
0.0%
Under 3.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
0.0%
Under 21.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.14
0.33
0.33
0.75
0.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
0.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (2)
1.00
0.00
-
-
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (2)
0.00
0.50
0.00
0.50
-
-
Clean sheet %
86% (+55pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.29
0.67
0.33
0.25
0.25
vs Stronger (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Similar (4)
0.75
0.25
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
71% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.14
0.71
0.33
0.67
0.00
0.75
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (2)
0.00
0.50
-
-
0.00
0.50
vs Weaker (2)
0.50
1.00
0.50
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.57
0.67
0.33
0.50
0.75
vs Stronger (2)
0.50
0.00
-
-
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (4)
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
0.00
1.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+27pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
87.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5
71.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEL · 2025/26
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Zakaria Sawo44%
Luther Singh40%
Morgan Ferrier33%
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Andreas Makris27%
Sérgio Conceição27%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Fernando Forestieri17%
Léo Natel12%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
François Régis Mughe0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Morgan Ferrier67%
Július Szőke62%
Dušan Stevanović33%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe29%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis20%
Sérgio Conceição18%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Guillermo Ochoa12%
Léo Natel12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
François Régis Mughe0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Sérgio Conceição27%
Léo Natel25%
Stephane Keller25%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Thapelo Maseko14%
Ivan Milosavljević9%
Nemanja Glavčić9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Luka Bogdan0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Zakaria Sawo0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Christoforos Frantzis33%
Luther Singh20%
François Régis Mughe17%
Léo Natel12%
Luka Bogdan12%
Zakaria Sawo11%
Andreas Makris9%
Guillermo Ochoa0%
Július Szőke0%
Bassel Jradi0%
Davor Zdravkovski0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Fernando Forestieri0%
Morgan Ferrier0%
Ivan Milosavljević0%
Dušan Stevanović0%
Nemanja Glavčić0%
Sérgio Conceição0%
Danil Paroutis0%
Emmanuel Imanishimwe0%
Stephane Keller0%
Andreas Panayiotou Filiotis0%
Panagiotis Kyriakou0%
Thapelo Maseko0%
Nea Salamis · 2024/25
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OLY (14)
€4m
KAR (12)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
AKR (5)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEL's squad is €4m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€9m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OLY (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
AKR (2)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEL's attack is €2m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
OLY (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
AKR (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEL and Nea Salamis have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OLY (8)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
AKR (3)
€1m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEL's defence is €2m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€3m vs €2m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Aris
Apoel Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Pafos
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Omonia Nicosia
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Enosis
Akritas
Olympiakos