AEL vs Nea Salamis Result & Analysis

The encounter between AEL and Nea Salamis is a tight one, with the model favouring an away win. The probabilities are 32% for a home victory, 27% for a draw and 41% for a win by Nea Salamis. On average the match should see 2.9 goals, but the most likely total is 2 goals, a 24% chance. The single scoreline the model deems most probable is 1-1, with a 12.7% probability. AEL, playing at home against a similarly-matched opponent, has scored 2.12 goals and conceded 1.88 in recent home matches. Nea Salamis, on the road versus a similar side, averages 1.7 goals scored and 1.4 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 2.5 cards at 90.2%, Over 19.5 fouls at 89.1%, Over 1.5 at 79.6%, Over 21.5 fouls at 79.0%, Over 3.5 cards at 78.2% and Under 11.5 corners at 72.2%. These picks are presented as independent probabilities, not as match-result chances.

The upset came early as AEL overturned the pre-match favourite, Nea Salamis, to win 3-1, extending their two-game winning run. The model had tipped an away win at 41% but was wrong. All of the model’s selections were settled: Over 2.5 cards hit at 90.2%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 89.1%, Over 1.5 hit at 79.6%, Over 21.5 fouls hit at 79.0%, Over 3.5 cards hit at 78.2%, while Under 11.5 corners missed at 72.2%. The match’s final score of 3-1 matched the actual result, confirming the home side’s triumph.