AEL’s recent 2-game winning streak and a 2-0 triumph over Anorthosis suggest a potent attack, while Nea Salamis’ 3-3 draw with Olympiakos hints at defensive frailties. The model favours a home win, with a 47% chance, a 24% chance of a draw, and a 29% chance of an away victory. The expected total of 3.4 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 10.3% probability. AEL averages 2.67 goals scored and 1.56 conceded at home against similar opposition, whereas Nea Salamis averages 2.11 goals scored and 2.0 conceded away against similar teams. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals (86.6%), Over 2.5 cards (81.4%), Over 8.5 corners (70.4%), Over 19.5 fouls (88.4%), Over 21.5 fouls (78.0%), and Under 5.5 cards (72.1%).
Results analysis
The pre-match favourite, a home win for AEL, failed to materialise as the match finished 0-0, a draw that left the model’s prediction wrong. The model had given AEL a 47% chance of victory, with a 24% draw probability and a 29% chance for Nea Salamis. The game’s most likely scoreline was 1-1 at 10.3%, but the final result was a stalemate. The model’s single suggested pick, Over 1.5 goals, missed, with an 86.6% probability of occurring. AEL’s home run was a two-game winning streak, while Nea Salamis had come off a draw, yet neither side managed to score.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AEL win✗ Miss
47.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
23.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis win✗ Miss
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AEL
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.47
1.80
1.86
1.79
1.12
1.81
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
3.14
0.50
2.75
0.33
3.67
vs Similar (20)
1.95
1.50
2.67
1.56
1.36
1.45
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
23% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.97
0.67
1.73
1.40
2.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.67
2.56
1.00
2.25
0.40
2.80
vs Similar (20)
1.25
1.75
0.55
1.55
2.11
2.00
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
86.6%
Under 1.5
13.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
66.6%
Under 2.5
33.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
44.8%
Under 3.5
55.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
67.2%
No
32.8%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.3%
2-1
9.1%
1-2
7.0%
2-2
6.8%
2-0
6.1%
3-1
5.9%
1-0
5.4%
3-2
4.4%
AEL goals ↓
Nea Salamis goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.2%
3.9%
3.6%
1.8%
0.7%
1
5.4%
10%
7.0%
3.5%
1.3%
2
6.1%
9.1%
6.8%
3.4%
1.3%
3
3.9%
5.9%
4.4%
2.2%
0.8%
4
1.9%
2.8%
2.1%
1.1%
0.4%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Nea Salamis goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Pafos
2.28
Aris
2.08
AEK Larnaca
1.89
Omonia Nicosia
1.89
Anorthosis
1.58
Apoel Nicosia
1.47
Apollon Limassol
1.28
AEL
1.18
Ethnikos Achna
1.18
Enosis
1.06
Omonia Aradippou
1.06
Karmiotissa
1.03
Nea Salamis
0.79
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.42
AEL is 0.39 points better than Nea Salamis in terms of average points per game (1.18 vs 0.79).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Pafos
1.86
Aris
1.83
Apoel Nicosia
1.64
AEK Larnaca
1.61
Anorthosis
1.52
Ethnikos Achna
1.33
AEL
1.15
Apollon Limassol
1.03
Omonia Aradippou
0.97
Enosis
0.94
Nea Salamis
0.94
Karmiotissa
0.91
Omonia 29is Maiou
0.70
AEL is 0.21 goals better than Nea Salamis in terms of goals scored per game (1.15 vs 0.94).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Pafos
0.58
AEK Larnaca
0.83
Aris
0.86
Apoel Nicosia
1.00
Apollon Limassol
1.08
Omonia Nicosia
1.11
Anorthosis
1.27
Enosis
1.45
AEL
1.61
Ethnikos Achna
1.61
Karmiotissa
1.73
Omonia Aradippou
1.76
Nea Salamis
1.88
Omonia 29is Maiou
1.97
AEL is 0.27 goals better than Nea Salamis in terms of goals conceded per game (1.61 vs 1.88).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Apoel Nicosia
58%
Ethnikos Achna
58%
Pafos
56%
AEK Larnaca
53%
Apollon Limassol
53%
Anorthosis
50%
Omonia Nicosia
49%
Omonia Aradippou
46%
Nea Salamis
46%
Aris
46%
Omonia 29is Maiou
45%
AEL
44%
Enosis
40%
Karmiotissa
39%
AEL is 1.3 percentage points worse than Nea Salamis in terms of average possession (44% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AEL
For 6.2 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.2 · Against 15.0 · Total 28.2
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Nea Salamis
For 6.0 · Against 8.2 · Total 14.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.2 · Against 1.8 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 15.0 · Against 10.3 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.6
10.6
10.5
2.1
1.8
2.4
25.8
25.0
26.6
vs Stronger (15)
9.8
9.8
9.8
2.9
1.8
4.3
25.3
23.2
26.7
vs Similar (31)
11.1
11.0
11.2
1.9
1.9
1.9
26.0
25.6
26.5
vs Weaker (4)
11.0
11.0
-
0.8
1.5
0.0
27.0
27.0
-
% over line
64%
62%
67%
34%
28%
40%
84%
85%
83%
% under line
36%
38%
33%
66%
72%
60%
16%
15%
17%
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
9.4
11.8
2.4
2.6
2.2
24.2
24.6
23.8
vs Stronger (16)
10.1
10.0
10.5
2.3
2.6
2.0
23.1
24.0
20.5
vs Similar (30)
10.5
8.3
11.9
2.5
2.5
2.4
25.5
25.8
25.2
vs Weaker (4)
12.0
11.0
14.0
2.8
3.5
2.0
21.0
22.5
18.0
% over line
58%
36%
83%
38%
38%
38%
69%
64%
75%
% under line
42%
64%
17%
62%
62%
62%
31%
36%
25%
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Omonia Nicosia
10.9
Nea Salamis
10.1
AEL
9.9
Omonia Aradippou
9.8
Apollon Limassol
9.6
Apoel Nicosia
9.5
AEK Larnaca
9.4
Aris
9.4
Karmiotissa
9.4
Omonia 29is Maiou
9.3
Anorthosis
8.9
Enosis
8.9
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
Pafos
8.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Omonia Aradippou
7.5
Omonia 29is Maiou
6.3
Apoel Nicosia
5.4
Aris
5.4
Anorthosis
5.2
Pafos
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.1
Ethnikos Achna
5.1
Enosis
5.0
AEK Larnaca
5.0
Karmiotissa
4.8
Nea Salamis
4.6
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
AEL
4.5
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Anorthosis
29.0
Enosis
28.5
Apoel Nicosia
28.4
AEL
27.0
Karmiotissa
26.6
Ethnikos Achna
26.5
Pafos
26.1
Aris
25.8
AEK Larnaca
25.4
Omonia Aradippou
25.2
Apollon Limassol
25.2
Nea Salamis
25.1
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Omonia 29is Maiou
23.3
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
58.4%
Under 9.5
41.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
64.0%
Under 3.5
36.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
78.0%
Under 21.5
22.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.63
1.00
0.40
0.47
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.43
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.33
1.33
vs Similar (20)
0.95
0.60
1.30
0.30
0.60
0.90
vs Weaker (3)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
50% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.97
0.33
0.73
0.53
1.20
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.44
0.50
0.75
0.20
2.00
vs Similar (20)
0.50
0.80
0.27
0.73
0.78
0.89
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.80
1.10
0.87
1.33
0.73
0.87
vs Stronger (7)
0.00
2.14
0.00
2.00
0.00
2.33
vs Similar (20)
1.10
0.80
1.30
1.20
0.90
0.40
vs Weaker (3)
0.67
0.67
0.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+9pp vs league)
This opponent (Nea Salamis) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Nea Salamis
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.00
0.33
1.00
0.87
1.00
vs Stronger (9)
0.33
1.11
0.50
1.50
0.20
0.80
vs Similar (20)
0.75
0.95
0.27
0.82
1.33
1.11
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
-
-
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
30% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Nea Salamis over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
88.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
86.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 2.5 cards
81.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
78.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 8.5 corners
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Emmanuel Toku33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Facundo Constantini33%
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Andreas Makris0%
Daniil Lesovoy0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Daniil Lesovoy33%
Andreas Makris0%
Victor Braga0%
Emmanuel Toku0%
Andreas Panagiotou Filiotis0%
Facundo Constantini0%
Themistoklis Themistokleous0%
Nea Salamis
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Andreas Frangos33%
Alexandros Michael25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantinos Sergiou67%
Serge Leuko67%
Danny Bejarano40%
Carlitos33%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Fiorin Durmishaj0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Miguelito0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Yassine Bahassa20%
Victor Fernandez20%
Apostolos Vellios0%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Fiorin Durmishaj25%
Apostolos Vellios20%
Alexandros Michael0%
Konstantinos Sergiou0%
Andreas Frangos0%
Nikolaos Melissas0%
Danny Bejarano0%
Nenad Tomović0%
Serge Leuko0%
Yassine Bahassa0%
Miguelito0%
Carlitos0%
Victor Fernandez0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
OA (18)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
O2M (10)
€3m
ENO (9)
€1m
EA (2)
€0m
AEL's squad is €4m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€9m vs €5m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
OA (5)
€1m
KAR (3)
€0m
ENO (3)
€0m
O2M (2)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's attack is €2m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€4m vs €2m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
OA (4)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
O2M (2)
€0m
ENO (2)
€0m
EA (0)
€0m
AEL and Nea Salamis have a similar midfield value (both €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
OA (9)
€2m
O2M (6)
€2m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
ENO (4)
€1m
EA (1)
€0m
AEL's defence is €2m more valuable than Nea Salamis's (€3m vs €2m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Pafos
Aris
Omonia Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Apoel Nicosia
Anorthosis
Apollon Limassol
Ethnikos Achna
Enosis
Omonia Aradippou
Karmiotissa
Omonia 29is Maiou