PythiaFootballBETA
AEL are expected to emerge victorious against Olympiakos, with a 42% chance of a home win, 29% for a draw, and 29% for an away win. The model's selection is a home win, and a total of 2.5 goals are expected to be scored. The most likely score is a 1-1 draw, but with a relatively low probability of 14%.
AEL have been in decent form at home, scoring 1.44 goals on average and conceding 1.33. Olympiakos, on the other hand, have struggled to score away from home, averaging just 0.56 goals, but have been solid defensively, conceding 1.11.
The model suggests taking Over 21.5 fouls (92.3%), Under 3.5 (76.2%), Over 1.5 (72.1%), and Under 9.5 corners (70.3%). AEL have a 42% chance of winning, a 29% chance of drawing, and a 29% chance of losing.
AEL's winning streak came to an end as Olympiakos stunned them 1-3 at home. The away team's victory marks a surprising upset, as they were not expected to take the win. The model's selection, Home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%. In contrast, the model's call for Under 9.5 corners, with a 70.3% probability, was correct, as it hit. The model also correctly predicted Over 21.5 fouls, with a 92.3% probability, which hit, and Over 1.5 goals, with a 72.1% probability, which also hit. The model's selection for Under 3.5 goals, with a 76.2% probability, unfortunately missed.
AEL| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.40 | 1.33 | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.47 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.75 | 2.08 | 1.00 | 1.67 | 0.50 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 1.33 | 1.07 | 1.29 | 1.29 | 1.38 | 0.88 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.50 | 0.50 | 2.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Olympiakos| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.93 | 1.37 | 0.93 | 1.33 | 0.93 | 1.40 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.83 | 2.17 | 0.83 | 1.83 | 0.83 | 2.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.80 | 0.87 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 0.71 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 2.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.50 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-4pp vs league) | |||||
| Olympiakos goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 9.7% | 8.0% | 5.1% | 1.9% | 0.5% |
| 1 | 10% | 14% | 7.0% | 2.6% | 0.7% |
| 2 | 7.9% | 8.8% | 4.8% | 1.8% | 0.5% |
| 3 | 3.6% | 4.0% | 2.2% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.4% | 0.8% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
AELOlympiakosAEL| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 7.6 | 8.4 | 6.7 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 30.5 | 29.2 | 32.2 |
| vs Stronger (18) | 8.7 | 8.5 | 9.0 | 1.3 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 28.5 | 27.0 | 31.5 |
| vs Similar (25) | 6.3 | 7.3 | 5.5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 1.6 | 33.0 | 33.7 | 32.5 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 11.0 | 11.0 | - | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.0 | 25.0 | 25.0 | - |
| % over line | 43% | 50% | 33% | 18% | 16% | 20% | 100% | 100% | 100% |
| % under line | 57% | 50% | 67% | 82% | 84% | 80% | 0% | 0% | 0% |
Olympiakos| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 6.9 | 4.0 | 8.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 | 1.0 | 30.4 | 31.0 | 30.2 |
| vs Stronger (14) | 6.7 | 3.0 | 8.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.9 | 26.0 | 27.0 | 25.5 |
| vs Similar (31) | 7.3 | 5.0 | 8.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | 0.7 | 35.3 | 35.0 | 35.5 |
| vs Weaker (5) | 6.0 | - | 6.0 | 1.4 | 0.0 | 2.3 | 29.0 | - | 29.0 |
| % over line | 14% | 0% | 20% | 6% | 0% | 12% | 86% | 100% | 80% |
| % under line | 86% | 100% | 80% | 94% | 100% | 88% | 14% | 0% | 20% |
AEL| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.57 | 0.20 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 0.47 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.17 | 0.75 | 0.17 | 0.83 | 0.17 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 0.53 | 0.14 | 0.71 | 0.75 | 0.38 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Olympiakos| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.50 | 0.53 | 0.33 | 0.53 | 0.67 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.50 | 0.92 | 0.33 | 0.83 | 0.67 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.47 | 0.27 | 0.75 | 0.00 | 0.14 | 0.57 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 70% (+39pp vs league) | |||||
AEL| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.83 | 1.13 | 0.67 | 0.53 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 1.33 | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.33 | 1.83 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.87 | 0.53 | 1.14 | 0.57 | 0.62 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.67 | 0.33 | 2.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Olympiakos| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.87 | 0.40 | 1.00 | 0.40 | 0.73 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.33 | 1.25 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.17 | 1.50 |
| vs Similar (15) | 0.33 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 0.14 |
| vs Weaker (3) | 1.00 | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+9pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 95.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 89.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 84.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 83.0% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 79.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 3.5 | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Under 10.5 corners | 75.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 1.5 | 72.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/12/25 | A | 0-0 | |
| 22/08/25 | H | 2-0 | |
| 30/04/23 | A | 1-1 | |
| 13/03/23 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/12/22 | H | 2-0 | |
| 12/09/22 | A | 0-0 |
AEL| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 02/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 17/04/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 0-3 | |
| 22/03/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 08/03/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 20/02/26 | A | 0-2 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 0-1 |
Olympiakos| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/03/26 | A | 5-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 21/02/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 15/02/26 | H | 0-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Omonia Nicosia | 36 | 87 | 75% | 2.4 | 88 | 24 | +64 | 3.1 | 89% | 56% | 33% | 7.9 | 27% | 4.7 | 73% | 25.8 | 82% | 19 | 8 | 4 | 7 | 2.4 | 0.7 | 51% |
| 2 |  AEK Larnaca | 36 | 69 | 56% | 1.9 | 62 | 33 | +29 | 2.6 | 78% | 42% | 22% | 9.7 | 55% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.4 | 64% | 16 | 7 | 2 | 7 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 49% |
| 3 |  Apollon Limassol | 36 | 67 | 56% | 1.9 | 52 | 41 | +11 | 2.6 | 72% | 47% | 25% | 8.9 | 31% | 5.1 | 69% | 24.7 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 53% |
| 4 |  Pafos | 36 | 62 | 50% | 1.7 | 66 | 38 | +28 | 2.9 | 86% | 50% | 28% | 9.5 | 47% | 4.3 | 59% | 25.0 | 71% | 28 | 14 | 8 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 55% |
| 5 |  Apoel Nicosia | 36 | 52 | 42% | 1.4 | 53 | 45 | +8 | 2.7 | 83% | 50% | 25% | 10.7 | 68% | 5.0 | 73% | 26.2 | 82% | 15 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 54% |
| 6 |  Aris | 36 | 51 | 39% | 1.4 | 61 | 45 | +16 | 2.9 | 83% | 58% | 33% | 10.1 | 45% | 5.2 | 73% | 25.1 | 82% | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 52% |
| 7 |  Anorthosis | 33 | 45 | 33% | 1.4 | 35 | 40 | -5 | 2.3 | 67% | 30% | 21% | 8.7 | 40% | 4.9 | 80% | 30.1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 50% |
| 8 | AEL | 33 | 44 | 39% | 1.3 | 41 | 46 | -5 | 2.6 | 79% | 55% | 24% | 7.0 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.6 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 9 |  Omonia Aradippou | 33 | 42 | 36% | 1.3 | 31 | 42 | -11 | 2.2 | 64% | 39% | 18% | 7.3 | 33% | 4.7 | 67% | 30.9 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.3 | 43% |
| 10 |  Krasava Ypsonas | 33 | 40 | 33% | 1.2 | 36 | 44 | -8 | 2.4 | 64% | 42% | 21% | 9.9 | 44% | 3.9 | 56% | 24.3 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.3 | 47% |
| 11 | Olympiakos | 33 | 40 | 30% | 1.2 | 32 | 44 | -12 | 2.3 | 70% | 42% | 24% | 6.8 | 12% | 3.8 | 38% | 29.4 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.3 | 54% |
| 12 |  Akritas | 33 | 35 | 30% | 1.1 | 31 | 58 | -27 | 2.7 | 82% | 55% | 33% | 9.4 | 50% | 5.2 | 92% | 25.2 | 67% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.8 | 44% |
| 13 |  Ethnikos Achna | 33 | 33 | 30% | 1.0 | 34 | 53 | -19 | 2.6 | 67% | 55% | 30% | 8.9 | 44% | 4.9 | 89% | 28.8 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.6 | 48% |
| 14 |  Enosis | 33 | 5 | 3% | 0.2 | 11 | 80 | -69 | 2.8 | 82% | 55% | 27% | 9.7 | 56% | 4.3 | 44% | 26.3 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 2.4 | 41% |