This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.8
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
0.87
1.62
0.75
1.43
1.00
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
1.00
0.94
1.11
1.00
0.88
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
2.23
0.77
2.29
0.43
2.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.7%
Under 1.5
23.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
51.2%
Under 2.5
48.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
29.1%
Under 3.5
70.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
53.8%
No
46.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
12.6%
0-1
9.9%
1-2 â
9.7%
0-2
9.3%
0-0
7.7%
2-1
6.0%
1-0
5.7%
1-3
5.4%
AEL goals ↓
Pafos goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
7.7%
9.9%
9.3%
5.2%
2.2%
1
5.7%
13%
9.7%
5.4%
2.3%
2
3.5%
6.0%
5.0%
2.8%
1.2%
3
1.2%
2.1%
1.7%
1.0%
0.4%
4
0.3%
0.5%
0.5%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AEL goals (down), columns = Pafos goals (across).
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
AEK Larnaca
2.03
Apoel Nicosia
2.03
Omonia Nicosia
1.92
Aris
1.81
Pafos
1.72
Apollon Limassol
1.65
Anorthosis
1.47
AEL
1.35
Nea Salamis
1.27
Ethnikos Achna
1.25
Karmiotissa
1.00
Doxa
0.88
Othellos
0.82
AE Zakakiou
0.45
AEL is 0.37 points worse than Pafos in terms of average points per game (1.35 vs 1.72).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Apoel Nicosia
1.75
Aris
1.75
Ethnikos Achna
1.75
Omonia Nicosia
1.72
Pafos
1.67
Apollon Limassol
1.60
AEK Larnaca
1.58
AEL
1.52
Karmiotissa
1.45
Nea Salamis
1.30
Anorthosis
1.28
Othellos
1.20
AE Zakakiou
1.00
Doxa
0.85
AEL is 0.14 goals worse than Pafos in terms of goals scored per game (1.52 vs 1.67).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Apoel Nicosia
0.67
AEK Larnaca
0.86
Pafos
0.92
Aris
0.94
Apollon Limassol
0.95
Omonia Nicosia
1.03
Anorthosis
1.17
Nea Salamis
1.52
AEL
1.70
Doxa
1.93
Karmiotissa
1.93
Othellos
1.93
Ethnikos Achna
1.98
AE Zakakiou
2.50
AEL is 0.78 goals worse than Pafos in terms of goals conceded per game (1.70 vs 0.92).
âąïļ Possession
Avg possession %
Pafos
56%
Aris
56%
Apollon Limassol
55%
Anorthosis
54%
Karmiotissa
53%
AEK Larnaca
52%
Nea Salamis
52%
Apoel Nicosia
51%
AEL
49%
AE Zakakiou
48%
Othellos
44%
Omonia Nicosia
44%
Ethnikos Achna
42%
Doxa
40%
AEL is 7.4 percentage points worse than Pafos in terms of average possession (49% vs 56%).
ðē 4. Props Analysis
AEL
For 4.7 · Against 5.6 · Total 10.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.5 · Against 2.7 · Total 5.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.6 · Against 13.1 · Total 26.7
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Pafos
For 5.4 · Against 3.9 · Total 9.3
ðĐ Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 2.4 · Total 4.2
ðĻ Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.0 · Against 12.6 · Total 25.6
â ïļ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AEL
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.3
9.8
8.9
4.1
4.2
3.9
27.4
26.1
28.8
vs Stronger (13)
7.9
8.4
7.5
5.2
5.1
5.2
27.7
30.4
25.5
vs Similar (29)
9.8
10.2
9.3
3.6
3.7
3.4
26.9
23.8
31.3
vs Weaker (8)
9.8
10.0
9.6
4.1
4.7
3.8
28.5
29.3
28.0
% over line
49%
50%
48%
56%
60%
52%
80%
71%
90%
% under line
51%
50%
52%
44%
40%
48%
20%
29%
10%
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.8
8.8
8.9
3.9
3.9
3.9
26.0
25.0
27.1
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (25)
8.9
8.8
9.0
4.7
5.2
4.2
25.9
25.6
26.2
vs Weaker (25)
8.8
8.8
8.8
3.1
2.7
3.6
26.1
24.1
28.0
% over line
35%
30%
41%
50%
50%
50%
81%
79%
82%
% under line
65%
70%
59%
50%
50%
50%
19%
21%
18%
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
ðĐ Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Othellos
10.5
Nea Salamis
9.6
Anorthosis
9.5
Karmiotissa
9.5
Aris
9.4
AEL
9.3
AE Zakakiou
9.3
AEK Larnaca
9.3
Apollon Limassol
9.2
Omonia Nicosia
9.1
Doxa
8.9
Pafos
8.8
Apoel Nicosia
8.6
Ethnikos Achna
8.3
ðĻ Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Ethnikos Achna
5.7
AE Zakakiou
5.6
Apoel Nicosia
5.6
Pafos
5.3
Othellos
5.2
Aris
5.2
Nea Salamis
5.1
Apollon Limassol
5.0
Anorthosis
5.0
Doxa
4.9
AEK Larnaca
4.9
Karmiotissa
4.8
AEL
4.7
Omonia Nicosia
4.6
â ïļ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Apoel Nicosia
29.7
Anorthosis
28.2
Doxa
28.0
AEL
27.4
AE Zakakiou
27.2
Karmiotissa
26.9
AEK Larnaca
26.8
Ethnikos Achna
26.4
Nea Salamis
26.4
Othellos
26.4
Pafos
26.0
Aris
25.7
Apollon Limassol
25.6
Omonia Nicosia
24.1
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
46.2%
Under 9.5
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
77.3%
Under 3.5
22.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
84.3%
Under 21.5
15.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AEL
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.73
0.67
0.47
0.60
vs Stronger (5)
0.20
0.80
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (19)
0.74
0.79
0.90
0.80
0.56
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.50
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.33
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.57
0.62
0.62
0.79
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.47
0.44
0.89
0.50
0.00
vs Weaker (13)
1.00
0.69
0.86
0.29
1.17
1.17
Clean sheet %
57% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AEL
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.93
0.67
0.87
0.27
1.00
vs Stronger (5)
0.00
1.40
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.67
vs Similar (19)
0.63
0.89
0.80
1.00
0.44
0.78
vs Weaker (6)
0.33
0.67
0.67
0.33
0.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Pafos) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Pafos
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.30
1.00
0.12
0.64
0.50
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (17)
0.53
0.47
0.67
0.11
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (13)
1.23
0.08
1.43
0.14
1.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
77% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (AEL) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AEL over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AEL over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Pafos over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 19.5 fouls
92.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 2.5 cards
89.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
84.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 3.5 cards
77.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 1.5
76.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 11.5 corners
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
Under 3.5
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
ð― 13. Player market rates
AEL
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Georgi Minchev33%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Andreas Makris33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan MedojeviÄ0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub SrniÄ0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Vasilios Papafotis33%
Djalma Silva33%
Slobodan MedojeviÄ25%
Slavoljub SrniÄ25%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Javier Mendoza67%
Evdoras Sylvestros33%
Djalma Silva33%
Ahmad Mendes Moreira25%
George Marsh0%
Georgi Minchev0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan MedojeviÄ0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub SrniÄ0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ahmad Mendes Moreira50%
Georgi Minchev33%
Djalma Silva33%
George Marsh0%
Javier Mendoza0%
Evdoras Sylvestros0%
Andreas Makris0%
Vasilios Papafotis0%
Slobodan MedojeviÄ0%
Miguel Oliveira0%
Slavoljub SrniÄ0%
Fabrice Kah0%
Christoforos Frantzis0%
Pafos
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Jairo da Silva33%
Adrian Rus25%
Muamer TankoviÄ20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica IvuÅĄiÄ0%
Petar BoÄkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
PÊpÊ0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
JajÃĄ0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Adrian Rus50%
Jairo da Silva33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
PÊpÊ25%
Ivica IvuÅĄiÄ20%
Petar BoÄkaj20%
Josef Kvida20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Onni Valakari0%
Patrick Twumasi0%
Muamer TankoviÄ0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
JajÃĄ0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Patrick Twumasi33%
Bruno20%
Muamer TankoviÄ20%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica IvuÅĄiÄ0%
Petar BoÄkaj0%
Jairo da Silva0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Vlad Dragomir0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
PÊpÊ0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
JajÃĄ0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Muamer TankoviÄ40%
Jairo da Silva33%
Patrick Twumasi33%
Vlad Dragomir25%
Anthony Contreras0%
Ivica IvuÅĄiÄ0%
Petar BoÄkaj0%
Jordan Ikoko0%
Moustapha Name0%
Bruno0%
Josef Kvida0%
Onni Valakari0%
PÊpÊ0%
Adrian Rus0%
David Goldar0%
Magomedkhabib Abdusalamov0%
JajÃĄ0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
ð° 14. Squad value
ð° Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (23)
€28m
AL (30)
€16m
AL (24)
€15m
AN (30)
€15m
ON (23)
€15m
ARI (26)
€11m
AEL (21)
€9m
ANO (25)
€7m
NS (15)
€5m
KAR (12)
€3m
EA (2)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEL's squad is €20m less valuable than Pafos's (€9m vs €28m).
âïļ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€14m
AN (12)
€8m
ON (9)
€7m
AL (10)
€7m
AL (9)
€7m
AEL (9)
€4m
ARI (8)
€3m
ANO (9)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
KAR (3)
€0m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEL's attack is €10m less valuable than Pafos's (€4m vs €14m).
ð§ Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (5)
€8m
ON (4)
€3m
ARI (5)
€3m
AN (4)
€3m
AL (4)
€2m
AL (6)
€2m
AEL (5)
€2m
NS (4)
€2m
ANO (6)
€1m
KAR (3)
€1m
EA (0)
€0m
DOX (0)
€0m
AEL's midfield is €6m less valuable than Pafos's (€2m vs €8m).
ðĄïļ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
PAF (9)
€7m
AL (14)
€7m
AL (11)
€7m
ARI (13)
€5m
AN (14)
€5m
ON (10)
€5m
ANO (10)
€3m
AEL (7)
€3m
KAR (6)
€2m
NS (7)
€2m
EA (1)
€0m
DOX (1)
€0m
AEL's defence is €4m less valuable than Pafos's (€3m vs €7m).
Cyprus: 1. Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Cyprus: 1. Division stats & trends →
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Apoel Nicosia
AEK Larnaca
Omonia Nicosia
Apollon Limassol
Aris
Anorthosis
Nea Salamis
Ethnikos Achna
Karmiotissa
Doxa
Othellos
AE Zakakiou