PythiaFootballPythiaFootballBETA Free Picks Fixtures League Stats Team Stats Player Stats Pro Picks PRO Research Head-to-Head Validation Pricing Log in
← Back

AF Elbasani vs Tomori Berat Result & Analysis

Date: 04/05/2024
Time: 17:00
Final 5-0
AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Vs
81%
13%
6%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Albania: 1st Division
Referee: -
1 Model Analysis2 Goal Analysis3 Team Strengths Analysis4 Props Analysis5 Double Chance6 Home & Away Over/Under7 Handicap8 Half Time Goals O/U9 Half Time Home & Away O/U10 Second Half Goals O/U11 Second Half Home & Away O/U
12 Top picks for this game14 Squad value15 Games History16 Overall Statistics17 League Table

🎯 1. Model Analysis

AF Elbasani winâś“ Hit
81.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâś— Miss
13.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat winâś— Miss
5.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

âš˝ 2. Goal Analysis

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 – goals for & against
50-500D21W50W30W22D31W32W10W22D20WA·BYL26/02H·LUZ03/03A·BES09/03H·BUR16/03A·KAS27/03H·LUS31/03A·KOR06/04H·APO13/04A·FLA21/04H·VOR29/04
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game2.230.972.560.941.861.00
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)1.501.252.001.251.001.25
vs Weaker (22)2.500.862.750.832.200.90
Clean sheet %40% (+8pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-414L12L12L12L12L14L13L10W03L03LH·FLA25/02A·BYL03/03A·KOR09/03H·LUZ16/03A·APO27/03H·BES31/03A·FLA06/04H·BUR13/04A·VOR21/04H·KAS28/04
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.702.170.791.640.622.62
vs Stronger (5)0.603.001.003.500.332.67
vs Similar (25)0.722.000.751.330.692.62
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %13% (-19pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

5%11%16%21%3%09%118%221%319%414%516%6+
The model estimates around 3.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (21%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
88.1%
Under 1.5
11.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
70.0%
Under 2.5
30.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
48.8%
Under 3.5
51.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
48.6%
No
51.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-0
11.4%
3-0
11.0%
2-1
8.1%
4-0
8.0%
3-1
7.8%
1-0
7.3%
1-1
6.1%
4-1
5.7%
AF Elbasani goals ↓
Tomori Berat goals →
01234
03.3%1.4%0.7%0.2%0.0%
17.3%6.1%2.0%0.5%0.1%
211%8.1%2.9%0.7%0.1%
311%7.8%2.8%0.7%0.1%
48.0%5.7%2.0%0.5%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AF Elbasani goals (down), columns = Tomori Berat goals (across).

đź’Ş 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
AF Elbasani
2.39
Bylis
2.15
Flamurtari
1.71
Vora
1.47
Apolonia Fier
1.43
Korabi Peshkopi
1.32
Burreli
1.21
Kastrioti Krujë
1.21
Lushnja
1.21
Besa Kavajë
1.21
Luzi 2008
0.94
Tomori Berat
0.52
Luftëtari
0.00
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 1.88 points better than Tomori Berat in terms of average points per game (2.39 vs 0.52).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
AF Elbasani
2.30
Vora
1.88
Bylis
1.67
Apolonia Fier
1.37
Flamurtari
1.31
Kastrioti Krujë
1.30
Luzi 2008
1.24
Korabi Peshkopi
1.24
Lushnja
1.18
Besa Kavajë
1.09
Luftëtari
1.00
Burreli
0.85
Tomori Berat
0.64
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
0.00
AF Elbasani is 1.67 goals better than Tomori Berat in terms of goals scored per game (2.30 vs 0.64).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Flamurtari
0.83
Bylis
0.94
AF Elbasani
0.97
Apolonia Fier
0.97
Korabi Peshkopi
1.12
Burreli
1.30
Besa Kavajë
1.41
Kastrioti Krujë
1.42
Lushnja
1.56
Vora
1.59
Luzi 2008
1.70
Iliria Fushë-Krujë
2.00
Tomori Berat
2.18
Luftëtari
3.00
AF Elbasani is 1.21 goals better than Tomori Berat in terms of goals conceded per game (0.97 vs 2.18).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D11D30W10W10W21W00D00D11D10WA·BYL26/02H·LUZ03/03A·BES09/03H·BUR16/03A·KAS27/03H·LUS31/03A·KOR06/04H·APO13/04A·FLA21/04H·VOR29/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.3
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.100.431.250.440.930.43
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.501.000.250.500.75
vs Weaker (22)1.230.411.330.501.100.30
Clean sheet %63% (+31pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-212L11D10W00D10W02L02L00D00D02LH·FLA25/02A·BYL03/03A·KOR09/03H·LUZ16/03A·APO27/03H·BES31/03A·FLA06/04H·BUR13/04A·VOR21/04H·KAS28/04
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.400.830.360.790.440.88
vs Stronger (5)0.201.600.502.000.001.33
vs Similar (25)0.440.680.330.580.540.77
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D10W20W20W12L10W32W10W11D10WA·BYL26/02H·LUZ03/03A·BES09/03H·BUR16/03A·KAS27/03H·LUS31/03A·KOR06/04H·APO13/04A·FLA21/04H·VOR29/04
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.5
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.130.531.310.500.930.57
vs Stronger (0)------
vs Similar (8)0.750.751.001.000.500.50
vs Weaker (22)1.270.451.420.331.100.60
Clean sheet %60% (+28pp vs league)
This opponent (Tomori Berat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-302L01L02L12L02L12L11D10W03L01LH·FLA25/02A·BYL03/03A·KOR09/03H·LUZ16/03A·APO27/03H·BES31/03A·FLA06/04H·BUR13/04A·VOR21/04H·KAS28/04
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored		Total
Conceded		Home
Scored		Home
Conceded		Away
Scored		Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.301.330.430.860.191.75
vs Stronger (5)0.401.400.501.500.331.33
vs Similar (25)0.281.320.420.750.151.85
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %27% (-6pp vs league)
This opponent (AF Elbasani) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AF Elbasani over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AF Elbasani over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Tomori Berat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.588.1%-------âś“ Hit
Home win81.3%-------âś“ Hit
Over 2.570.0%-------âś“ Hit

đź’° 14. Squad value

đź’° Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (25)
€5m
VOR (25)
€4m
BK (21)
€2m
IF (26)
€2m
KK (18)
€2m
KP (24)
€2m
BUR (21)
€1m
AF (18)
€1m
LUF (18)
€1m
LUS (17)
€1m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (10)
€2m
BK (6)
€1m
IF (9)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
KP (9)
€1m
LUF (6)
€0m
BUR (5)
€0m
AF (4)
€0m
LUS (3)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (5)
€1m
KK (7)
€1m
VOR (4)
€1m
BK (7)
€1m
BUR (8)
€0m
KP (4)
€0m
IF (6)
€0m
AF (3)
€0m
LUF (4)
€0m
LUS (4)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
AE (10)
€2m
VOR (11)
€1m
BK (8)
€1m
IF (11)
€1m
KP (11)
€1m
AF (11)
€1m
BUR (8)
€1m
KK (4)
€0m
LUF (8)
€0m
LUS (10)
€0m
No squad-value data to compare these two teams.

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

2 previous meetings
2
AE wins
0
Draws
0
TB wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

AF Elbasani vs Tomori Berat · H/A from AE
DateH/AGameScore
10/02/24ATomori Berat Vs AE1-3
29/10/23HAE Vs Tomori Berat4-0

AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/04/24HAE Vs Vora2-0
21/04/24AFlamurtari Vs AE2-2
13/04/24HAE Vs Apolonia Fier1-0
06/04/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs AE2-3
31/03/24HAE Vs Lushnja3-1
27/03/24AKastrioti Krujë Vs AE2-2
16/03/24HAE Vs Burreli3-0
09/03/24ABesa Kavajë Vs AE0-5
03/03/24HAE Vs Luzi 20082-1
26/02/24ABylis Vs AE0-0

Tomori BeratTomori Berat

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
28/04/24HTB Vs Kastrioti Krujë0-3
21/04/24AVora Vs TB3-0
13/04/24HTB Vs Burreli1-0
06/04/24AFlamurtari Vs TB3-1
31/03/24HTB Vs Besa Kavajë1-4
27/03/24AApolonia Fier Vs TB2-1
16/03/24HTB Vs Luzi 20081-2
09/03/24AKorabi Peshkopi Vs TB2-1
03/03/24ABylis Vs TB2-1
25/02/24HTB Vs Flamurtari1-4

đź“Š 16. Overall Statistics

AF Elbasani
AF Elbasani
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 7 Wins / 3 Draws / 0 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWWWDW2.35
HomeWWWWW2.75
AwayDWDWD1.93
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %71%88%53%
AVG goals3.163.502.80
Over 1.5 %81%94%67%
Over 2.5 %61%69%53%
Over 3.5 %45%50%40%
Scored2.192.561.80
Conceded0.970.941.00
BTTS61%62%60%
Clean Sheet39%38%40%
Corners---
Cards---
Tomori Berat
Tomori Berat
Albania: 1st Division
Recent: 1 Wins / 0 Draws / 9 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallLLWLL1.10
HomeLLLWL1.46
AwayLLLLL0.71
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %32%42%21%
AVG goals2.542.352.75
Over 1.5 %68%62%75%
Over 2.5 %52%46%58%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored0.901.080.71
Conceded1.641.272.04
BTTS44%42%46%
Clean Sheet26%35%17%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1AF ElbasaniAF Elbasani3379
73%
2.4
7632+44
3.3
82%
64%
48%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
2122.31.0
-
2BylisBylis3371
67%
2.2
5531+24
2.6
73%
48%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.70.9
-
3FlamurtariFlamurtari3560
46%
1.7
4629+17
2.1
57%
37%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.30.8
-
4Apolonia FierApolonia Fier3550
37%
1.4
4834+14
2.3
63%
43%
20%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0011.41.0
-
5VoraVora3450
44%
1.5
6454+10
3.5
79%
71%
47%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
4
2111.91.6
-
6Korabi PeshkopiKorabi Peshkopi3445
35%
1.3
4238+4
2.4
56%
44%
26%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.21.1
-
7Besa KavajëBesa Kavajë3441
32%
1.2
3748-11
2.5
68%
38%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1111.11.4
-
8LushnjaLushnja3441
32%
1.2
4053-13
2.7
79%
53%
29%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.21.6
-
9Kastrioti KrujëKastrioti Krujë3340
30%
1.2
4347-4
2.7
73%
48%
42%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1101.31.4
-
10BurreliBurreli3340
36%
1.2
2843-15
2.2
55%
36%
18%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0010.81.3
-
11Luzi 2008Luzi 20083331
27%
0.9
4156-15
2.9
73%
58%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.21.7
-
12Tomori BeratTomori Berat3317
12%
0.5
2172-51
2.8
76%
58%
36%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.62.2
-
13LuftëtariLuftëtari10
0%
0.0
13-2
4.0
100%
100%
100%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.03.0
-
14Iliria Fushë-KrujëIliria Fushë-Krujë10
0%
0.0
02-2
2.0
100%
0%
0%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1010.02.0
-
Albania: 1st Division 2023/24 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Albania: 1st Division stats & trends →

← all matches