Afan Lido is expected to come out on top in this match, with a 42% chance of a home win, 28% of a draw, and 30% of an away win. The most likely result is indeed a home win, as the model predicts. The expected total number of goals is 2.6, with the most likely total number of goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.5% probability.
Afan Lido has scored 1.25 goals on average at home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.58 goals. Meanwhile, Aberystwyth Town has scored 1.25 goals on average away from home against similar opponents, while conceding 1.12 goals.
The model suggests Over 1.5 goals, with a 75.3% probability, and Under 3.5 goals, with a 72.6% probability and a 7% edge. Afan Lido has a 42% chance of winning, a 28% chance of drawing, and a 30% chance of losing.
Aberystwyth Town pulled off a major upset, defeating Afan Lido 2-5 on the road. This win extends their run of inconsistent results, having alternated between wins and losses in their last five matches. The model's selection, a home win, was incorrect, with a pre-match probability of 42%.
In a surprising turn of events, the model's call was wrong as Aberystwyth Town secured the away win. The model's selection of a home win was not the only one to miss the mark, as the selection of Under 3.5 also failed to come through, despite having a 72.6% probability. In contrast, the selection of Over 1.5 was correct, hitting with a 75.3% probability.
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 1.90 | 1.47 | 1.60 | 0.93 | 2.20 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 1.47 | 1.74 | 1.78 | 1.44 | 1.20 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.70 | 2.10 | 1.00 | 1.83 | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.40 | 1.25 | 1.38 | 0.93 | 1.43 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 1.14 | 1.46 | 1.33 | 1.40 | 0.92 | 1.54 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
| Aberystwyth Town goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 8.3% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 2.0% | 0.6% |
| 1 | 9.1% | 14% | 7.3% | 2.9% | 0.9% |
| 2 | 7.6% | 9.0% | 5.3% | 2.1% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 3.7% | 4.4% | 2.6% | 1.0% | 0.3% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.6% | 0.9% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.47 | 0.67 | 0.47 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.58 | 0.68 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.70 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.30 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.53 | 0.56 | 0.62 | 0.14 | 0.43 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.39 | 0.54 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.15 | 0.46 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+32pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.10 | 1.00 | 0.93 | 0.47 | 1.27 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (19) | 0.89 | 1.05 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.50 | 1.10 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 0.40 | 1.10 | 0.50 | 0.83 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Aberystwyth Town| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 0.87 | 0.69 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (28) | 0.75 | 0.93 | 0.73 | 0.80 | 0.77 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 75.3% | 1.18 | 1.20 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | - | -1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 72.6% | 1.40 | 1.42 | 1.41 | 1.40 | 1.39 | 1.39 | +7.5% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 27/09/25 | H | 0-1 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-1 |
Aberystwyth Town| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 18/04/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 24/02/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 14/02/26 | H | 2-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.2 | - |
| 2 | Brickfield Rangers | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 14 | 2 | +12 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.5 | 0.5 | - |
| 3 | Pontypridd Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 4 | Porthmadog | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 8 | 4 | +4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 5 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 4.0 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.2 | - |
| 6 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 7 | Bala Town | 3 | 9 | 100% | 3.0 | 7 | 2 | +5 | 3.0 | 100% | 100% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 5.0 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Newtown AFC | 3 | 7 | 67% | 2.3 | 9 | 1 | +8 | 3.3 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.3 | - |
| 10 | Mold Alexandra | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.8 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.2 | - |
| 11 | Baglan Dragons | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 2 | 3 | -1 | 1.2 | 25% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 12 | Aberystwyth Town | 3 | 6 | 67% | 2.0 | 11 | 5 | +6 | 5.3 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.7 | 1.7 | - |
| 13 | Newport City | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 4 | +5 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 14 | Afan Lido | 4 | 6 | 50% | 1.5 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 15 | Guilsfield | 4 | 6 | 25% | 1.5 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 3.2 | 100% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 16 | Rhyl | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 3.0 | 67% | 33% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.3 | - |
| 17 | Ynyshir Albions | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 3 | 3 | +0 | 2.0 | 67% | 33% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 18 | Ruthin Town | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Caersws | 3 | 4 | 33% | 1.3 | 5 | 6 | -1 | 3.7 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 20 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Caerau (Ely) | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 9 | 12 | -3 | 5.2 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 3.0 | - |
| 22 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Denbigh Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 24 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Pontardawe Town | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 8 | -3 | 3.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 26 | Llanuwchllyn | 3 | 3 | 33% | 1.0 | 3 | 11 | -8 | 4.7 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.7 | - |
| 27 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 4 | 2 | 0% | 0.5 | 4 | 7 | -3 | 2.8 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Buckley Town | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 8 | -4 | 3.0 | 75% | 50% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.0 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 4 | 12 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 3 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 10 | -9 | 3.7 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.3 | 3.3 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |