Afan Lido are coming off a convincing 5-0 win over Llantwit Major, but their opponents are looking to bounce back from three consecutive defeats. The statistics suggest a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.3 goals. Afan Lido have been scoring at a rate of 1.31 goals per game at home, but conceding 1.85. Llantwit Major, meanwhile, have scored 1.42 goals on average while away to similar opponents, but conceded 1.67. The model predicts an away win, with a probability of 43%.
The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.9%. The model's selection is the away win, which is the favourite. The home side's home win percentage is 33%, the draw percentage is 25%, and the away win percentage is 43%. The model also suggests an Over 1.5 goals selection, which has a probability of 85.4% and an edge of 7%.
Afan Lido's 5-0 thrashing of Llantwit Major marked the latest chapter in their resurgence, extending their run of form to a convincing win. However, the result was a major upset, as Llantwit Major were the pre-match favourites, with a predicted 43% chance of winning. The model's selection, an Away win, was incorrect, as Afan Lido secured the three points. The model had also correctly identified the Over 1.5 goal margin as a likely outcome, with an 85.4% probability, and this prediction hit. The most likely score, 3 goals, was not on the cards, as Afan Lido ran riot, securing a 5-0 victory.
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.13 | 2.03 | 1.50 | 1.81 | 0.71 | 2.29 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.33 | 1.78 | 1.78 | 1.44 | 0.89 | 2.11 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.82 | 2.36 | 1.14 | 2.29 | 0.25 | 2.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 13% (-8pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.50 | 1.57 | 1.38 | 1.50 | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.52 | 1.33 | 1.45 | 1.27 | 1.60 | 1.40 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 1.44 | 2.11 | 1.20 | 2.00 | 1.75 | 2.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Llantwit Major goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 4.6% | 5.4% | 5.7% | 3.4% | 1.5% |
| 1 | 4.6% | 11% | 8.8% | 5.2% | 2.3% |
| 2 | 4.3% | 7.6% | 6.8% | 4.0% | 1.8% |
| 3 | 2.2% | 3.9% | 3.5% | 2.1% | 0.9% |
| 4 | 0.9% | 1.5% | 1.3% | 0.8% | 0.4% |
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.40 | 0.80 | 0.50 | 0.69 | 0.29 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.44 | 0.67 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.89 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.36 | 1.00 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 37% (+15pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.67 | 0.56 | 0.75 | 0.86 | 0.57 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.67 | 0.48 | 0.73 | 0.45 | 0.60 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.78 | 1.11 | 0.20 | 1.40 | 1.50 | 0.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+28pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.73 | 1.23 | 1.00 | 1.12 | 0.43 | 1.36 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.89 | 1.11 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.22 |
| vs Weaker (11) | 0.45 | 1.36 | 0.57 | 1.29 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+12pp vs league) | |||||
Llantwit Major| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.90 | 0.81 | 0.75 | 0.79 | 1.07 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.86 | 0.86 | 0.73 | 0.82 | 1.00 | 0.90 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 0.60 | 0.25 | 1.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+22pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 85.4% | 1.17 | 1.18 | 1.16 | 1.16 | 1.16 | - | +7.3% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 02/11/24 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/08/24 | H | 1-3 | |
| 20/01/24 | A | 1-0 | |
| 06/10/23 | H | 4-1 | |
| 25/03/23 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/08/22 | H | 2-2 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 13/03/26 | H | 0-4 | |
| 07/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 01/03/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 20/02/26 | H | 1-0 |
Llantwit Major| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 1-3 | |
| 04/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 28/03/26 | H | 1-4 | |
| 20/03/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 14/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 10/03/26 | A | 1-3 | |
| 06/03/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 03/03/26 | H | 3-2 | |
| 28/02/26 | H | 0-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 2 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 3 | Brickfield Rangers | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 15 | 4 | +11 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 4 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 13 | 6 | +7 | 3.8 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.2 | - |
| 5 | Bala Town | 4 | 12 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 3 | +7 | 3.2 | 100% | 100% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.8 | - |
| 6 | Newtown AFC | 4 | 10 | 75% | 2.5 | 13 | 1 | +12 | 3.5 | 100% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 0.2 | - |
| 7 | Mold Alexandra | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 5 | +5 | 3.0 | 60% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 8 | Carmarthen Town | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 13 | 11 | +2 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 2.2 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.4 | - |
| 10 | Baglan Dragons | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 5 | 4 | +1 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 11 | Aberystwyth Town | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 12 | 5 | +7 | 4.2 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.0 | 1.2 | - |
| 12 | Treowen Stars | 4 | 9 | 75% | 2.2 | 11 | 6 | +5 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 13 | Caersws | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 8 | 7 | +1 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Ynyshir Albions | 4 | 7 | 50% | 1.8 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.8 | 50% | 25% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 15 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 16 | Guilsfield | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 8 | 9 | -1 | 3.4 | 100% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 17 | Afan Lido | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.8 | 80% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.6 | - |
| 18 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 9 | 9 | +0 | 3.6 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.8 | - |
| 19 | Denbigh Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 11 | -1 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 20 | Rhyl | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 3.2 | 75% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 21 | Buckley Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 22 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 | Caerau (Ely) | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 10 | 15 | -5 | 5.0 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 24 | Ruthin Town | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 6 | 11 | -5 | 3.4 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.2 | - |
| 25 | Caerphilly Athletic | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 2 | 7 | -5 | 2.2 | 75% | 75% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 26 | Holyhead Hotspur | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 28 | Llanuwchllyn | 4 | 3 | 25% | 0.8 | 3 | 15 | -12 | 4.5 | 100% | 100% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 6 | 14 | -8 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 4 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 12 | -9 | 3.8 | 100% | 75% | 75% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 3.0 | - |
| 31 | Gresford Athletic | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 12 | -12 | 3.0 | 75% | 75% | 25% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 32 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |