PythiaFootballBETA
The model picks an away win for Newport City, a result that is reflected in the 44% chance of victory versus Afan Lido’s 28% home win probability and a 27% draw likelihood. The expected total of 2.8 goals points to a moderately high-scoring affair, with the most likely total being two goals at a 25% probability. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 12.9% chance, even though the actual final was 0-1.
Afan Lido, playing at home against a weaker opponent, averages 1.2 goals scored and 1.6 conceded. Newport City, on the road against a stronger side, averages 1.67 goals scored and 1.75 conceded. These figures suggest Newport’s attacking edge and Afan’s defensive frailty.
The model’s selection is Over 1.5 goals, with a 78.3% probability. No other selections are offered. The match is poised for a competitive contest, but the data lean toward a narrow away victory.
The win extends Newport City's run, as they finish the match 0-1, a clean-sheet victory that confirms the model's prediction of an away win, which it called correctly. The pre-match favourite was the away side, given a 44% chance, and the outcome matched that expectation. The model also suggested an Over 1.5 total, with a 78.3% probability, but that selection missed. The final score of 0-1 is the only result to report, and the probabilities are expressed as percentages. The match was a tough day for the selections, with the only hit being the correct prediction of the away win.
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.10 | 1.80 | 1.14 | 1.64 | 1.06 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.30 | 1.60 | 1.11 | 1.67 | 1.45 | 1.55 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 2.11 | 1.20 | 1.60 | 0.00 | 2.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 10% (-12pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.57 | 1.13 | 1.44 | 0.75 | 1.71 | 1.57 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.59 | 1.22 | 1.53 | 0.80 | 1.67 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (3) | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 33% (+11pp vs league) | |||||
| Newport City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 7.2% | 8.3% | 7.5% | 4.0% | 1.6% |
| 1 | 6.2% | 13% | 9.3% | 4.9% | 1.9% |
| 2 | 4.5% | 7.2% | 5.7% | 3.0% | 1.2% |
| 3 | 1.9% | 2.9% | 2.3% | 1.2% | 0.5% |
| 4 | 0.6% | 0.9% | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.73 | 0.36 | 0.50 | 0.56 | 0.94 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.55 | 0.70 | 0.22 | 0.44 | 0.82 | 0.91 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.60 | 0.60 | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.60 | 0.37 | 0.56 | 0.12 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.59 | 0.41 | 0.60 | 0.13 | 0.58 | 0.75 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 77% (+55pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.07 | 0.79 | 1.14 | 0.50 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.75 | 0.90 | 0.89 | 1.22 | 0.64 | 0.64 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.33 | 1.33 | 0.60 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.75 |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.97 | 0.77 | 0.88 | 0.62 | 1.07 | 0.93 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.00 | 0.81 | 0.93 | 0.67 | 1.08 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.67 | 0.33 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+21pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 1.5 | 78.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 09/08/24 | H | 1-1 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30/01/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/01/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 30/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 26/12/25 | A | 3-1 | |
| 16/12/25 | H | 0-2 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 15/11/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 07/11/25 | A | 6-0 | |
| 31/10/25 | H | 3-2 | |
| 24/10/25 | A | 1-0 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/01/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 23/01/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 09/01/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 27/12/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 13/12/25 | A | 5-3 | |
| 10/12/25 | H | 2-1 | |
| 05/12/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 29/11/25 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/11/25 | H | 2-2 | |
| 08/11/25 | A | 2-2 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  Llandudno | 30 | 80 | 87% | 2.7 | 77 | 22 | +55 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 |  Trefelin | 30 | 78 | 83% | 2.6 | 83 | 17 | +66 | 3.3 | 93% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 3 |  Cambrian & Clydach | 30 | 76 | 80% | 2.5 | 75 | 20 | +55 | 3.2 | 87% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 0.7 | - |
| 4 |  Airbus UK | 30 | 75 | 80% | 2.5 | 93 | 22 | +71 | 3.8 | 93% | 83% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.1 | 0.7 | - |
| 5 |  Holywell | 30 | 60 | 60% | 2.0 | 78 | 40 | +38 | 3.9 | 87% | 73% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.3 | - |
| 6 |  Caerau (Ely) | 31 | 60 | 58% | 1.9 | 67 | 34 | +33 | 3.3 | 81% | 61% | 42% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 1.1 | - |
| 7 |  Ammanford AFC | 30 | 60 | 57% | 2.0 | 49 | 26 | +23 | 2.5 | 70% | 50% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 0.9 | - |
| 8 |  Newtown AFC | 30 | 48 | 50% | 1.6 | 51 | 49 | +2 | 3.3 | 87% | 67% | 37% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 9 |  Rhyl | 30 | 46 | 47% | 1.5 | 46 | 55 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 73% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 10 |  Carmarthen Town | 30 | 45 | 37% | 1.5 | 45 | 38 | +7 | 2.8 | 67% | 37% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.3 | - |
| 11 |  Aberystwyth Town | 30 | 44 | 43% | 1.5 | 35 | 38 | -3 | 2.4 | 63% | 50% | 30% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.3 | - |
| 12 |  Guilsfield | 30 | 43 | 43% | 1.4 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 70% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 13 |  Mold Alexandra | 30 | 41 | 40% | 1.4 | 38 | 45 | -7 | 2.8 | 77% | 60% | 27% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.5 | - |
| 14 |  Cardiff Draconians | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 50 | 48 | +2 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 1.6 | - |
| 15 |  Denbigh Town | 30 | 40 | 40% | 1.3 | 52 | 59 | -7 | 3.7 | 87% | 77% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.0 | - |
| 16 |  Llantwit Major | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 44 | 47 | -3 | 3.0 | 83% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 17 |  Caersws | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 83% | 63% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 18 |  Brickfield Rangers | 30 | 37 | 37% | 1.2 | 39 | 49 | -10 | 2.9 | 80% | 57% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 1.6 | - |
| 19 |  Treowen Stars | 30 | 37 | 33% | 1.2 | 51 | 63 | -12 | 3.8 | 90% | 70% | 57% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.1 | - |
| 20 | Newport City | 30 | 37 | 30% | 1.2 | 36 | 48 | -12 | 2.8 | 70% | 47% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.6 | - |
| 21 |  Holyhead Hotspur | 30 | 36 | 33% | 1.2 | 44 | 49 | -5 | 3.1 | 73% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.6 | - |
| 22 |  Penrhyncoch | 30 | 35 | 33% | 1.2 | 45 | 53 | -8 | 3.3 | 80% | 63% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.8 | - |
| 23 |  Pontypridd Town | 30 | 34 | 30% | 1.1 | 46 | 51 | -5 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 47% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 1.7 | - |
| 24 | Afan Lido | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 32 | 57 | -25 | 3.0 | 67% | 53% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.1 | 1.9 | - |
| 25 |  Buckley Town | 30 | 30 | 30% | 1.0 | 50 | 77 | -27 | 4.2 | 90% | 80% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.7 | 2.6 | - |
| 26 |  Trethomas Bluebirds | 30 | 29 | 20% | 1.0 | 45 | 62 | -17 | 3.6 | 90% | 63% | 43% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.5 | 2.1 | - |
| 27 |  Flint Mountain | 30 | 29 | 30% | 1.0 | 39 | 61 | -22 | 3.3 | 83% | 73% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.3 | 2.0 | - |
| 28 |  Gresford Athletic | 30 | 28 | 27% | 0.9 | 47 | 87 | -40 | 4.5 | 90% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.6 | 2.9 | - |
| 29 |  Baglan Dragons | 31 | 25 | 16% | 0.8 | 26 | 53 | -27 | 2.5 | 68% | 48% | 23% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 1.7 | - |
| 30 |  Ruthin Town | 30 | 23 | 20% | 0.8 | 36 | 64 | -28 | 3.3 | 77% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 2.1 | - |
| 31 |  Ynyshir Albions | 30 | 23 | 17% | 0.8 | 27 | 56 | -29 | 2.8 | 80% | 53% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.9 | 1.9 | - |
| 32 |  Cwmbran Celtic | 30 | 10 | 3% | 0.3 | 25 | 78 | -53 | 3.4 | 83% | 70% | 53% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 2.6 | - |