Afan Lido’s recent form suggests a cautious start, but the model projects a home win with a 41% chance, a draw 25%, and an away win 33%. The expected total is 3.2 goals, with the most likely total of three goals at 22%. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying an 11.3% probability. Afan Lido averages 1.14 goals scored and 2.29 conceded at home against weaker opposition, while Newport City, playing away against stronger teams, scores 1.64 and concedes 1.91. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (98.2%), Under 6.5 (95.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.2%), Home under 3.5 goals (90.5%), Under 5.5 (89.1%), Over 1.5 (84.3%), Home +2 handicap (83.7%), and Home over 0.5 goals (81.9%). These picks reflect the expectation of a high-scoring match with both sides likely to find the net.
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.87 | 1.53 | 1.41 | 0.69 | 2.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 3.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 1.40 | 1.65 | 1.91 | 0.91 | 0.78 | 2.56 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.67 | 2.22 | 0.83 | 2.33 | 0.33 | 2.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (+1pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.33 | 1.77 | 1.24 | 1.65 | 1.46 | 1.92 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 1.48 | 1.63 | 1.40 | 1.53 | 1.58 | 1.75 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 3.00 | 0.00 | 2.50 | 0.00 | 4.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-2pp vs league) | |||||
| Newport City goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 5.8% | 5.7% | 4.9% | 2.3% | 0.8% |
| 1 | 6.5% | 12% | 7.9% | 3.8% | 1.4% |
| 2 | 6.2% | 8.9% | 6.4% | 3.0% | 1.1% |
| 3 | 3.3% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 1.6% | 0.6% |
| 4 | 1.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% | 0.7% | 0.2% |
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.37 | 0.73 | 0.41 | 0.53 | 0.31 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.45 | 0.65 | 0.45 | 0.27 | 0.44 | 1.11 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.22 | 0.89 | 0.33 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.67 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+25pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 0.73 | 0.59 | 0.71 | 0.77 | 0.77 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 0.63 | 0.67 | 0.60 | 0.83 | 0.67 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.67 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 60% (+38pp vs league) | |||||
Afan Lido| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 1.13 | 1.12 | 0.88 | 0.38 | 1.46 |
| vs Stronger (1) | 1.00 | 2.00 | - | - | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (20) | 0.95 | 1.00 | 1.45 | 0.64 | 0.33 | 1.44 |
| vs Weaker (9) | 0.44 | 1.33 | 0.50 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 1.33 |
| Clean sheet % | 40% (+18pp vs league) | |||||
Newport City| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.67 | 1.03 | 0.65 | 0.94 | 0.69 | 1.15 |
| vs Stronger (27) | 0.74 | 1.00 | 0.73 | 0.93 | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| vs Similar (3) | 0.00 | 1.33 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 30% (+8pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 7.5 | 98.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 6.5 | 96.4% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 3.5 goals | 94.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 3.5 goals | 91.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 5.5 | 91.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home +2 handicap | 84.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away under 2.5 goals | 82.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Over 1.5 | 81.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Under 4.5 | 80.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home over 0.5 goals | 80.1% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away +2 handicap | 78.7% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home under 2.5 goals | 77.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Away over 0.5 goals | 76.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Home or Away | 73.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13/02/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 25/07/25 | A | 1-0 | |
| 17/01/25 | A | 5-1 | |
| 09/08/24 | H | 1-1 |
Afan Lido| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 28/08/26 | A | 5-2 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 14/08/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 07/08/26 | H | 5-0 | |
| 01/08/26 | H | 2-5 | |
| 18/04/26 | A | 4-1 | |
| 03/04/26 | H | 4-1 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 23/03/26 | A | 0-1 |
Newport City| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 28/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/08/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 15/08/26 | A | 0-4 | |
| 08/08/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 31/07/26 | A | 1-4 | |
| 18/04/26 | H | 0-5 | |
| 03/04/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 28/03/26 | A | 0-1 | |
| 20/03/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 14/03/26 | A | 4-0 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Brickfield Rangers | 6 | 15 | 83% | 2.5 | 17 | 4 | +13 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.7 | - |
| 2 | Swansea University | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 18 | 5 | +13 | 4.6 | 100% | 100% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.6 | 1.0 | - |
| 3 | Newtown AFC | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 14 | 1 | +13 | 3.0 | 80% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.8 | 0.2 | - |
| 4 | Pontypridd Town | 5 | 13 | 80% | 2.6 | 16 | 10 | +6 | 5.2 | 100% | 100% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 2.0 | - |
| 5 | Mold Alexandra | 6 | 13 | 67% | 2.2 | 12 | 6 | +6 | 3.0 | 67% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | - |
| 6 | Aberystwyth Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 16 | 5 | +11 | 4.2 | 80% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 3.2 | 1.0 | - |
| 7 | Bangor City 1876 FC | 6 | 12 | 67% | 2.0 | 14 | 8 | +6 | 3.7 | 100% | 100% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 1.3 | - |
| 8 | Bala Town | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 0.8 | - |
| 9 | Porthmadog | 6 | 11 | 50% | 1.8 | 11 | 9 | +2 | 3.3 | 83% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | - |
| 10 | Caersws | 5 | 10 | 60% | 2.0 | 10 | 7 | +3 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.4 | - |
| 11 | Carmarthen Town | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 15 | 14 | +1 | 4.8 | 100% | 100% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.5 | 2.3 | - |
| 12 | Baglan Dragons | 6 | 10 | 50% | 1.7 | 5 | 5 | +0 | 1.7 | 33% | 33% | 17% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.8 | - |
| 13 | Treowen Stars | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 13 | 9 | +4 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.6 | 1.8 | - |
| 14 | Guilsfield | 6 | 9 | 33% | 1.5 | 12 | 9 | +3 | 3.5 | 100% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.5 | - |
| 15 | Trethomas Bluebirds | 6 | 8 | 33% | 1.3 | 12 | 11 | +1 | 3.8 | 83% | 67% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 16 | Ynyshir Albions | 5 | 8 | 40% | 1.6 | 4 | 3 | +1 | 1.4 | 40% | 20% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.8 | 0.6 | - |
| 17 | Rhyl | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 9 | 8 | +1 | 3.4 | 80% | 60% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.6 | - |
| 18 | Afan Lido | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 11 | 13 | -2 | 4.0 | 67% | 67% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.2 | - |
| 19 | Caerau (Ely) | 6 | 7 | 33% | 1.2 | 13 | 17 | -4 | 5.0 | 100% | 83% | 83% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.2 | 2.8 | - |
| 20 | Caerphilly Athletic | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 3 | 7 | -4 | 2.0 | 60% | 60% | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 1.4 | - |
| 21 | Newport City | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 9 | 5 | +4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 1.0 | - |
| 22 | Llanuwchllyn | 5 | 6 | 40% | 1.2 | 5 | 15 | -10 | 4.0 | 100% | 80% | 60% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 23 | Holyhead Hotspur | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | - |
| 24 | Cardiff Draconians | 4 | 4 | 25% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 3.0 | 50% | 50% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 25 | Denbigh Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 11 | 14 | -3 | 4.2 | 100% | 100% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.8 | 2.3 | - |
| 26 | Buckley Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 7 | 11 | -4 | 3.0 | 83% | 50% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.2 | 1.8 | - |
| 27 | Ruthin Town | 6 | 4 | 17% | 0.7 | 6 | 13 | -7 | 3.2 | 100% | 83% | 33% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 2.2 | - |
| 28 | Pontardawe Town | 5 | 3 | 20% | 0.6 | 5 | 9 | -4 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 1.8 | - |
| 29 | llanelli AFC | 6 | 2 | 0% | 0.3 | 6 | 18 | -12 | 4.0 | 100% | 83% | 67% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 1.0 | 3.0 | - |
| 30 | Penrhyncoch | 5 | 1 | 0% | 0.2 | 3 | 16 | -13 | 3.8 | 100% | 80% | 80% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.6 | 3.2 | - |
| 31 | Llantwit Major | 4 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 1 | 14 | -13 | 3.8 | 75% | 75% | 50% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.2 | 3.5 | - |
| 32 | Gresford Athletic | 5 | 0 | 0% | 0.0 | 0 | 14 | -14 | 2.8 | 80% | 60% | 20% | - | 0% | - | 0% | - | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0.0 | 2.8 | - |