AFC Wimbledon face Huddersfield in a match that feels razor-thin, with the model favouring an away win. The odds sit at 32 % for a home victory, 29 % for a draw and 39 % for Huddersfield to triumph, making the latter the most likely outcome. On average, the teams are expected to produce 2.6 goals, with the single most probable scoreline being 1-1 at a 13.9 % probability. Wimbledon’s home form shows they average 1.43 goals scored and concede 2.14 against stronger opposition, while Huddersfield’s away numbers are not provided but the model still leans on them. The suggested selections include Under 5.5 cards at 86.3 %, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.0 %, Under 3.5 at 74.7 % (miss), Over 21.5 fouls at 74.4 %, Over 1.5 at 73.5 % and Under 4.5 cards at 73.2 %. All these picks carry their own probabilities, separate from the match result. The teams are evenly poised, and the outcome remains uncertain.
Results analysis
The win for Huddersfield extends their recent run, with the 0-4 result confirming the model’s prediction of an away victory. The pre-match favourite was the away win, assigned a 39 % probability, and the model’s call proved correct. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 5.5 cards at 86.3 % was fulfilled, Over 19.5 fouls at 86.0 % also came through, Over 21.5 fouls at 74.4 % was correct, and Over 1.5 at 73.5 % was achieved, while Under 4.5 cards at 73.2 % was settled. The only miss was Under 3.5 at 74.7 %. The most likely score of 1-1, with a 13.9 % chance, was not reached, but the final score of 0-4 still matched the away win outcome.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
AFC Wimbledon win✗ Miss
31.8%
Avg Implied 29.8% · @ 3.13
Edge
+2.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
29.1%
Avg Implied 25.2% · @ 3.70
Edge
+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield win✓ Hit
39.1%
Avg Implied 45.0% · @ 2.07
Edge
-6.0%
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.60
1.07
1.47
1.07
1.73
vs Stronger (13)
1.31
2.23
1.43
2.14
1.17
2.33
vs Similar (17)
0.88
1.12
0.75
0.88
1.00
1.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Huddersfield
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.53
1.47
1.87
1.33
1.20
1.60
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
1.48
1.41
1.79
1.21
1.20
1.60
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
3.00
3.00
3.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
Under 1.5
26.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.61-10.7%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 2.19+10.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.3%
Under 3.5
74.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
53.0%
No
47.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.9%
0-1
9.3%
0-0
9.1%
1-2
8.5%
1-0
8.1%
2-1
7.6%
0-2
7.1%
2-0
5.6%
AFC Wimbledon goals ↓
Huddersfield goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.1%
9.3%
7.1%
3.2%
1.1%
1
8.1%
14%
8.5%
3.9%
1.3%
2
5.6%
7.6%
5.1%
2.3%
0.8%
3
2.2%
3.0%
2.0%
0.9%
0.3%
4
0.7%
0.9%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = AFC Wimbledon goals (down), columns = Huddersfield goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Lincoln
2.24
Cardiff
1.98
Bolton
1.71
Stockport
1.69
Luton
1.61
Bradford
1.60
Plymouth
1.59
Stevenage
1.56
Huddersfield
1.46
Mansfield
1.41
Reading
1.37
Wycombe
1.37
Blackpool
1.30
Doncaster
1.30
Barnsley
1.28
Wigan
1.22
Burton
1.17
AFC Wimbledon
1.15
Peterboro
1.15
Leyton Orient
1.13
Exeter
1.07
Port Vale
0.91
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.76
AFC Wimbledon is 0.30 points worse than Huddersfield in terms of average points per game (1.15 vs 1.46).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Cardiff
1.96
Lincoln
1.93
Plymouth
1.63
Huddersfield
1.61
Bolton
1.55
Stockport
1.53
Wycombe
1.50
Barnsley
1.48
Luton
1.48
Reading
1.39
Peterboro
1.39
Mansfield
1.35
Leyton Orient
1.28
Bradford
1.21
Blackpool
1.17
Exeter
1.13
AFC Wimbledon
1.11
Doncaster
1.09
Burton
1.09
Wigan
1.07
Stevenage
1.02
Rotherham
0.89
Northampton
0.85
Port Vale
0.78
AFC Wimbledon is 0.50 goals worse than Huddersfield in terms of goals scored per game (1.11 vs 1.61).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lincoln
0.89
Stevenage
1.02
Bolton
1.08
Mansfield
1.09
Cardiff
1.09
Bradford
1.10
Luton
1.22
Wigan
1.26
Wycombe
1.26
Stockport
1.27
Reading
1.30
Burton
1.30
Port Vale
1.33
Exeter
1.33
Plymouth
1.37
Huddersfield
1.39
Blackpool
1.41
Peterboro
1.48
Doncaster
1.50
Leyton Orient
1.54
Rotherham
1.54
AFC Wimbledon
1.57
Barnsley
1.59
Northampton
1.61
AFC Wimbledon is 0.17 goals worse than Huddersfield in terms of goals conceded per game (1.57 vs 1.39).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Cardiff
63%
Bolton
59%
Luton
56%
Peterboro
55%
Stockport
55%
Wycombe
54%
Leyton Orient
52%
Barnsley
52%
Exeter
51%
Doncaster
50%
Reading
50%
Bradford
50%
Huddersfield
50%
Plymouth
48%
AFC Wimbledon
46%
Blackpool
46%
Port Vale
46%
Burton
46%
Mansfield
46%
Rotherham
46%
Wigan
45%
Stevenage
45%
Northampton
45%
Lincoln
42%
AFC Wimbledon is 3.2 percentage points worse than Huddersfield in terms of average possession (46% vs 50%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
AFC Wimbledon
For 6.1 · Against 4.3 · Total 10.4
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.7 · Against 2.0 · Total 3.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.8 · Against 10.3 · Total 22.1
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Huddersfield
For 4.6 · Against 4.6 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 2.8 · Total 4.7
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.4 · Against 14.2 · Total 26.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
AFC Wimbledon
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
9.9
9.5
3.1
3.0
3.1
23.1
23.3
22.9
vs Stronger (21)
9.0
9.0
8.9
2.7
2.2
3.1
22.5
22.2
22.8
vs Similar (28)
10.3
10.6
10.0
3.5
3.9
3.1
23.5
24.2
23.0
vs Weaker (1)
-
-
-
0.0
0.0
-
-
-
-
% over line
49%
52%
46%
42%
46%
38%
63%
74%
54%
% under line
51%
48%
54%
58%
54%
62%
37%
26%
46%
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Huddersfield
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.5
10.8
10.2
3.9
3.7
4.2
24.5
24.5
24.5
vs Stronger (3)
9.3
7.5
13.0
2.0
1.5
3.0
15.7
16.0
15.0
vs Similar (46)
10.5
11.0
10.0
4.1
3.9
4.2
25.2
25.4
25.0
vs Weaker (1)
13.0
13.0
-
4.0
4.0
-
19.0
19.0
-
% over line
59%
65%
52%
58%
54%
62%
71%
69%
74%
% under line
41%
35%
48%
42%
46%
38%
29%
31%
26%
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Plymouth
11.3
Port Vale
10.6
Barnsley
10.6
Wigan
10.6
Luton
10.5
Huddersfield
10.5
Burton
10.5
Cardiff
10.4
Peterboro
10.2
Bolton
10.2
Blackpool
10.1
Wycombe
10.1
Exeter
10.1
Northampton
9.9
Doncaster
9.8
Bradford
9.8
Stockport
9.8
AFC Wimbledon
9.7
Leyton Orient
9.6
Mansfield
9.6
Rotherham
9.5
Reading
9.2
Lincoln
9.2
Stevenage
8.4
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Plymouth
4.9
Bradford
4.4
Peterboro
4.3
Rotherham
4.1
Huddersfield
4.1
Lincoln
4.1
Leyton Orient
4.0
Doncaster
3.9
Bolton
3.8
Stevenage
3.7
Mansfield
3.7
Luton
3.7
Wycombe
3.7
Blackpool
3.7
Burton
3.7
Port Vale
3.6
Reading
3.5
Northampton
3.5
Cardiff
3.5
Barnsley
3.5
Stockport
3.4
Exeter
3.4
Wigan
3.2
AFC Wimbledon
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Bradford
24.9
Huddersfield
24.5
Stevenage
24.5
Plymouth
24.1
Rotherham
24.0
Peterboro
23.9
Blackpool
23.7
Luton
23.7
Wigan
23.4
Doncaster
23.1
AFC Wimbledon
23.1
Leyton Orient
22.9
Lincoln
22.8
Reading
22.5
Bolton
22.5
Mansfield
22.4
Northampton
22.2
Burton
22.0
Exeter
21.8
Wycombe
21.6
Port Vale
21.6
Stockport
21.4
Barnsley
21.0
Cardiff
20.8
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
55.0%
Under 9.5
45.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
45.5%
Under 3.5
54.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
74.4%
Under 21.5
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.57
0.53
0.40
0.47
0.73
vs Stronger (13)
0.62
0.69
0.71
0.57
0.50
0.83
vs Similar (17)
0.41
0.47
0.38
0.25
0.44
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+25pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Huddersfield
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.57
0.73
0.67
0.53
0.47
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.66
0.55
0.79
0.64
0.53
0.47
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
AFC Wimbledon
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
1.03
0.53
1.07
0.60
1.00
vs Stronger (13)
0.69
1.54
0.71
1.57
0.67
1.50
vs Similar (17)
0.47
0.65
0.38
0.62
0.56
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+5pp vs league)
This opponent (Huddersfield) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Huddersfield
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.90
1.13
0.67
0.67
1.13
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (29)
0.83
0.86
1.00
0.57
0.67
1.13
vs Weaker (1)
3.00
2.00
3.00
2.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
40% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (AFC Wimbledon) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
AFC Wimbledon over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Huddersfield over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 5.5 cards
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
73.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 13. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (25)
€31m
LUT (28)
€29m
HUD (27)
€16m
BOL (24)
€14m
LO (28)
€13m
STO (27)
€13m
PLY (27)
€12m
BLA (23)
€12m
REA (26)
€11m
LIN (27)
€10m
WYC (25)
€10m
STE (25)
€9m
WIG (27)
€9m
PV (31)
€8m
ROT (28)
€8m
PET (26)
€8m
BUR (27)
€8m
BRA (23)
€7m
BAR (20)
€7m
DON (27)
€7m
MAN (27)
€6m
AW (23)
€5m
EXE (22)
€5m
NOR (23)
€4m
AFC Wimbledon's squad is €10m less valuable than Huddersfield's (€5m vs €16m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
LUT (13)
€16m
CAR (10)
€13m
BOL (9)
€8m
STO (8)
€6m
LO (7)
€6m
HUD (9)
€5m
BLA (8)
€4m
LIN (9)
€4m
PLY (8)
€4m
STE (9)
€3m
PET (10)
€3m
WYC (8)
€3m
BRA (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
AW (10)
€2m
REA (6)
€2m
MAN (9)
€2m
ROT (8)
€2m
DON (7)
€2m
EXE (7)
€2m
PV (7)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€1m
NOR (7)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon's attack is €2m less valuable than Huddersfield's (€2m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (4)
€7m
LUT (7)
€5m
HUD (5)
€4m
REA (7)
€4m
LO (8)
€3m
BRA (6)
€3m
PLY (7)
€3m
ROT (9)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
LIN (6)
€3m
WYC (5)
€2m
BOL (4)
€2m
BLA (5)
€2m
DON (9)
€2m
PV (9)
€2m
STE (6)
€2m
STO (5)
€2m
MAN (5)
€2m
PET (5)
€2m
BUR (7)
€2m
BAR (5)
€2m
NOR (6)
€1m
EXE (6)
€1m
AW (6)
€1m
AFC Wimbledon's midfield is €3m less valuable than Huddersfield's (€1m vs €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CAR (11)
€12m
LUT (8)
€8m
HUD (13)
€7m
BLA (10)
€6m
PLY (12)
€6m
STO (14)
€5m
PV (15)
€5m
REA (13)
€5m
WYC (12)
€4m
BUR (13)
€4m
LO (13)
€4m
LIN (12)
€4m
BOL (11)
€4m
BAR (10)
€4m
STE (10)
€3m
WIG (9)
€3m
ROT (11)
€3m
PET (11)
€3m
DON (11)
€2m
MAN (13)
€2m
AW (7)
€2m
EXE (9)
€2m
NOR (10)
€2m
BRA (8)
€2m
AFC Wimbledon's defence is €6m less valuable than Huddersfield's (€2m vs €7m).
England: League One 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full England: League One stats & trends →