AIK Stockholm vs IF Elfsborg Result & Analysis

The match sits on a razor-thin edge, with the model favouring a home win. Home win probability 40%, draw 30%, away win 30%. The expected total goals is 2.4, with the most likely total of 2 goals at 27%. The single most probable scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 14.3% chance. AIK Stockholm, playing at home against a similarly ranked opponent, averages 1.29 goals scored and 1.0 conceded. IF Elfsborg, on the road against a similar side, averages 1.0 scored and 1.8 conceded. The model’s selections include Over 19.5 fouls at 91.3%, Over 21.5 fouls at 82.5%, Under 3.5 at 78.1%, Over 2.5 cards at 77.9%, Over 8.5 corners at 74.5%, Over 23.5 fouls at 70.1%, with Under 5.5 cards at 76.6% noted as a miss and Over 1.5 at 70.2% also a miss. Both teams have been in good recent form, AIK on a four-game winning streak and Elfsborg unbeaten in five. The game promises a tightly contested battle.

The pre-match favourite, AIK Stockholm, failed to deliver, as IF Elfsborg claimed a 0-1 victory. The model had tipped a home win at 40%, but the outcome was the opposite. AIK were on a four-game winning run before this match, while Elfsborg remained unbeaten in five outings. The model’s selection of Over 1.5 goals was missed, yet it hit on Over 19.5 fouls (91.3%), Over 21.5 fouls (82.5%), Under 3.5 (78.1%), Over 2.5 cards (77.9%), Over 8.5 corners (74.5%), and Over 23.5 fouls (70.1%). It missed Under 5.5 cards (76.6%) and Over 1.5 (70.2%). The final score matched the model’s most likely 1-1 prediction only in the goal count, not the result.