AIK Stockholm is the clear favourite to win against Orgryte IS, with the model predicting a home win. This is largely due to the home side's strong recent form, particularly against their opponents, as they come off a win against Orgryte IS with a 4-3 scoreline. The model rates AIK Stockholm highly, giving them a 69% chance of winning at home.
The expected total goals is 2.9, with the most likely total goals being 2. The most likely scoreline is 2-0, with a probability of 12.9%. Orgryte IS has struggled on the road, conceding an average of 3.5 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a 69% probability. The home side's home form is strong, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding 1.4 goals against weaker opponents. The away side's away form is weak, scoring 0.75 goals and conceding 3.5 goals against stronger opponents.
The model's suggested picks include Over 1.5, with a 79.2% probability, and Over 21.5 fouls, with a 74.3% probability. The probabilities for home, draw, and away win are 69%, 20%, and 11% respectively.
The upset of the match was the away win for Orgryte IS, who defeated AIK Stockholm with a score of 0-3. This result extends Orgryte IS's run of coming off a defeat, having lost their previous match to AIK Stockholm. The pre-match favourite, AIK Stockholm, had a 69% chance of winning, but the model's selection, a home win, was incorrect. The model's call was wrong, as AIK Stockholm did not come through. The model's selection of a home win was the favourite, but it failed to deliver. The model's other selections, Over 1.5 and Over 21.5 fouls, hit and missed respectively, with probabilities of 79.2% and 74.3%.
AIK Stockholm| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.67 | 1.33 | 1.43 | 1.50 | 1.88 | 1.19 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.48 | 1.39 | 1.45 | 1.36 | 1.50 | 1.42 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 2.29 | 1.14 | 1.33 | 2.00 | 3.00 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
Orgryte IS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.17 | 1.77 | 1.50 | 1.57 | 0.88 | 1.94 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.86 | 2.29 | 0.75 | 1.50 | 1.00 | 3.33 |
| vs Similar (21) | 1.19 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 1.67 | 0.83 | 1.67 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 2.00 | 1.00 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 23% (-3pp vs league) | |||||
| Orgryte IS goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 6.5% | 3.3% | 1.5% | 0.4% | 0.1% |
| 1 | 11% | 9.8% | 3.3% | 0.8% | 0.2% |
| 2 | 13% | 9.5% | 3.5% | 0.9% | 0.2% |
| 3 | 9.2% | 6.8% | 2.5% | 0.6% | 0.1% |
| 4 | 4.9% | 3.6% | 1.3% | 0.3% | 0.1% |
AIK Stockholm
Orgryte IS
AIK Stockholm| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.7 | 10.4 | 11.0 | 3.6 | 3.2 | 3.9 | 24.1 | 23.8 | 24.4 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (40) | 11.0 | 11.1 | 10.9 | 3.8 | 3.1 | 4.4 | 24.3 | 23.6 | 24.9 |
| vs Weaker (10) | 9.8 | 7.8 | 11.8 | 2.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 23.0 | 24.2 | 21.8 |
| % over line | 60% | 50% | 70% | 54% | 52% | 56% | 72% | 75% | 70% |
| % under line | 40% | 50% | 30% | 46% | 48% | 44% | 28% | 25% | 30% |
Orgryte IS| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 10.6 | 10.4 | 10.8 | 1.9 | 2.0 | 1.8 | 22.5 | 22.4 | 22.7 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 12.2 | 12.3 | 12.0 | 2.6 | 3.0 | 2.0 | 20.3 | 18.3 | 22.3 |
| vs Similar (39) | 9.9 | 9.3 | 10.3 | 1.7 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 23.3 | 23.6 | 23.1 |
| vs Weaker (4) | 13.0 | 16.0 | 11.5 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 4.0 | 21.3 | 22.0 | 21.0 |
| % over line | 55% | 57% | 53% | 24% | 25% | 23% | 55% | 57% | 53% |
| % under line | 45% | 43% | 47% | 76% | 75% | 77% | 45% | 43% | 47% |
AIK Stockholm| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.47 | 0.80 | 0.43 | 1.07 | 0.50 | 0.56 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 0.39 | 0.83 | 0.45 | 1.00 | 0.33 | 0.67 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 0.71 | 0.71 | 0.33 | 1.33 | 1.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+17pp vs league) | |||||
Orgryte IS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.57 | 0.71 | 0.50 | 0.69 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.50 | 1.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.57 | 0.67 | 0.78 | 0.89 | 0.42 | 0.50 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 0.50 | 0.00 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 0.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 47% (+20pp vs league) | |||||
AIK Stockholm| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.20 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.43 | 1.38 | 0.62 |
| vs Stronger (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| vs Similar (23) | 1.09 | 0.57 | 1.00 | 0.36 | 1.17 | 0.75 |
| vs Weaker (7) | 1.57 | 0.43 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 2.00 | 0.25 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+27pp vs league) | |||||
Orgryte IS| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.63 | 1.07 | 0.93 | 0.86 | 0.38 | 1.25 |
| vs Stronger (7) | 0.43 | 1.29 | 0.75 | 1.00 | 0.00 | 1.67 |
| vs Similar (21) | 0.62 | 1.00 | 0.89 | 0.78 | 0.42 | 1.17 |
| vs Weaker (2) | 1.50 | 1.00 | 2.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (+0pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Under 5.5 cards | 89.2% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 19.5 fouls | 81.3% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✗ Miss |
| Over 1.5 | 79.2% | 1.15 | 1.18 | 1.18 | 1.17 | 1.17 | 1.16 | -1.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 4.5 cards | 77.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 8.5 corners | 72.0% | 1.29 | 1.35 | 1.32 | 1.31 | 1.24 | 1.23 | +1.1% | ✗ Miss |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| No games. | |||
AIK Stockholm| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 27/07/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 18/07/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 05/07/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 30/05/26 | H | 0-3 | |
| 24/05/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 2-4 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 0-1 |
Orgryte IS| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 24/07/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 20/07/26 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/07/26 | H | 4-3 | |
| 05/07/26 | A | 3-0 | |
| 29/05/26 | H | 2-2 | |
| 23/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 19/05/26 | H | 2-3 | |
| 11/05/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 03/05/26 | A | 4-0 | |
| 27/04/26 | H | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 | Sirius | 18 | 42 | 72% | 2.3 | 47 | 26 | +21 | 4.1 | 100% | 83% | 56% | 10.7 | 78% | 3.1 | 50% | 25.4 | 83% | 27 | 18 | 5 | 4 | 2.6 | 1.4 | 48% |
| 2 | Hammarby FF | 18 | 36 | 61% | 2.0 | 42 | 15 | +27 | 3.2 | 94% | 56% | 28% | 9.1 | 39% | 2.8 | 28% | 25.0 | 72% | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 61% |
| 3 | BK Hacken | 18 | 31 | 44% | 1.7 | 32 | 26 | +6 | 3.2 | 83% | 56% | 39% | 11.1 | 67% | 4.2 | 56% | 26.2 | 78% | 16 | 6 | 3 | 7 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 4 | Djurgardens IF | 17 | 29 | 53% | 1.7 | 37 | 19 | +18 | 3.3 | 71% | 65% | 41% | 11.1 | 65% | 3.6 | 47% | 23.6 | 65% | 27 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 2.2 | 1.1 | 56% |
| 5 | IF Elfsborg | 18 | 28 | 39% | 1.6 | 25 | 19 | +6 | 2.4 | 83% | 44% | 17% | 9.2 | 44% | 3.8 | 56% | 22.1 | 56% | 17 | 5 | 4 | 7 | 1.4 | 1.1 | 47% |
| 6 | AIK Stockholm | 17 | 28 | 47% | 1.6 | 25 | 25 | +0 | 2.9 | 82% | 65% | 24% | 10.3 | 41% | 4.4 | 71% | 24.5 | 71% | 20 | 8 | 7 | 5 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 52% |
| 7 | Malmo FF | 18 | 26 | 44% | 1.4 | 32 | 30 | +2 | 3.4 | 78% | 72% | 50% | 10.2 | 44% | 4.1 | 67% | 27.4 | 89% | 30 | 9 | 8 | 12 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 57% |
| 8 | Vasteras SK FK | 18 | 26 | 39% | 1.4 | 25 | 32 | -7 | 3.2 | 72% | 56% | 39% | 9.7 | 56% | 3.7 | 44% | 26.7 | 100% | 10 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 47% |
| 9 | IF Brommapojkarna | 18 | 24 | 33% | 1.3 | 27 | 27 | +0 | 3.0 | 94% | 72% | 33% | 10.0 | 56% | 3.2 | 33% | 22.6 | 56% | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 47% |
| 10 | Gais | 18 | 23 | 33% | 1.3 | 21 | 18 | +3 | 2.2 | 72% | 33% | 17% | 10.0 | 56% | 3.4 | 39% | 24.3 | 67% | 13 | 5 | 3 | 5 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 50% |
| 11 | Mjallby AIF | 16 | 20 | 31% | 1.2 | 24 | 23 | +1 | 2.9 | 75% | 50% | 25% | 9.1 | 38% | 3.9 | 62% | 25.6 | 62% | 26 | 7 | 11 | 8 | 1.5 | 1.4 | 54% |
| 12 | IFK Goteborg | 18 | 20 | 28% | 1.1 | 23 | 39 | -16 | 3.4 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 11.7 | 72% | 4.0 | 44% | 24.6 | 72% | 16 | 8 | 3 | 5 | 1.3 | 2.2 | 51% |
| 13 | Kalmar FF | 18 | 19 | 28% | 1.1 | 21 | 28 | -7 | 2.7 | 78% | 56% | 28% | 10.2 | 50% | 3.3 | 33% | 23.8 | 61% | 10 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 1.2 | 1.6 | 47% |
| 14 | Degerfors IF | 18 | 16 | 22% | 0.9 | 17 | 29 | -12 | 2.6 | 83% | 50% | 17% | 9.4 | 39% | 3.6 | 39% | 26.3 | 72% | 6 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 0.9 | 1.6 | 46% |
| 15 | Orgryte IS | 18 | 14 | 17% | 0.8 | 22 | 41 | -19 | 3.5 | 94% | 56% | 39% | 10.1 | 50% | 3.1 | 44% | 21.5 | 44% | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 43% |
| 16 | Halmstad | 18 | 8 | 6% | 0.4 | 12 | 35 | -23 | 2.6 | 94% | 33% | 17% | 10.7 | 61% | 3.2 | 44% | 22.7 | 44% | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 0.7 | 1.9 | 41% |