This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
2.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.03
1.07
1.47
1.60
2.60
vs Stronger (15)
1.53
2.27
1.17
1.67
1.78
2.67
vs Similar (14)
1.14
1.86
1.00
1.38
1.33
2.50
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-21pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
84.2%
Under 1.5
15.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
62.4%
@ 2.38+22.4%
Under 2.5
37.6%
@ 1.59-22.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
64.8%
No
35.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
11.3%
1-2
8.8%
2-1 ✓
7.8%
2-2
6.7%
0-2
5.9%
0-1
5.8%
1-3
5.0%
0-0
5.0%
Ajaccio goals ↓
Estac Troyes goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
5.8%
5.9%
3.4%
1.4%
1
5.0%
11%
8.8%
5.0%
2.2%
2
4.5%
7.8%
6.7%
3.8%
1.6%
3
2.3%
3.9%
3.3%
1.9%
0.8%
4
0.9%
1.5%
1.3%
0.7%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajaccio goals (down), columns = Estac Troyes goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.24
Lens
2.21
Marseille
1.92
Rennes
1.79
Lille
1.76
Monaco
1.71
Lyon
1.63
Clermont Foot
1.55
Nice
1.53
Lorient
1.45
Reims
1.34
Montpellier
1.32
Toulouse
1.26
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Strasbourg
1.05
Nantes
0.95
Auxerre
0.92
Ajaccio
0.68
Estac Troyes
0.63
Angers
0.47
Ajaccio is 0.05 points better than Estac Troyes in terms of average points per game (0.68 vs 0.63).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Paris Saint Germain
2.34
Monaco
1.84
Rennes
1.82
Lens
1.79
Marseille
1.76
Lille
1.71
Montpellier
1.71
Lyon
1.71
Lorient
1.37
Strasbourg
1.34
Toulouse
1.34
Nice
1.26
Estac Troyes
1.18
Clermont Foot
1.18
Reims
1.18
Stade Brestois 29
1.16
Nantes
0.97
Auxerre
0.92
Angers
0.87
Ajaccio
0.61
Ajaccio is 0.58 goals worse than Estac Troyes in terms of goals scored per game (0.61 vs 1.18).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Lens
0.76
Nice
0.97
Rennes
1.03
Paris Saint Germain
1.05
Marseille
1.05
Lille
1.16
Reims
1.18
Lyon
1.24
Clermont Foot
1.29
Lorient
1.39
Stade Brestois 29
1.42
Nantes
1.45
Toulouse
1.50
Monaco
1.53
Strasbourg
1.55
Montpellier
1.63
Auxerre
1.66
Ajaccio
1.95
Estac Troyes
2.13
Angers
2.13
Ajaccio is 0.18 goals better than Estac Troyes in terms of goals conceded per game (1.95 vs 2.13).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Ajaccio
For 4.3 · Against 3.2 · Total 7.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.2 · Against 1.7 · Total 2.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.3 · Against 12.5 · Total 24.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Estac Troyes
For 3.7 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.2
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.8 · Against 3.0 · Total 4.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 11.5 · Against 13.8 · Total 25.3
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Ajaccio
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
7.7
7.9
7.5
2.1
2.3
1.8
28.5
29.4
27.7
vs Stronger (30)
7.6
8.2
6.7
0.7
0.9
0.5
25.7
24.5
27.3
vs Similar (20)
7.8
7.8
7.8
4.2
4.3
4.0
29.6
31.6
27.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
27%
31%
23%
28%
29%
27%
88%
85%
92%
% under line
73%
69%
77%
72%
71%
73%
12%
15%
8%
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.7
10.3
9.2
2.4
2.6
2.3
25.1
23.9
26.2
vs Stronger (23)
10.8
10.8
10.7
2.2
2.6
1.9
24.2
23.0
25.0
vs Similar (24)
8.9
10.1
7.2
2.4
2.5
2.2
25.2
24.3
26.6
vs Weaker (3)
8.5
9.0
8.0
4.7
3.0
8.0
29.5
26.0
33.0
% over line
54%
54%
54%
32%
28%
36%
85%
85%
85%
% under line
46%
46%
46%
68%
72%
64%
15%
15%
15%
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Nantes
10.5
Rennes
10.3
Lens
10.2
Montpellier
10.1
Toulouse
10.0
Lille
9.9
Monaco
9.9
Reims
9.8
Strasbourg
9.8
Nice
9.7
Stade Brestois 29
9.7
Marseille
9.6
Lyon
9.4
Paris Saint Germain
9.3
Estac Troyes
9.3
Lorient
9.1
Angers
9.0
Auxerre
9.0
Clermont Foot
9.0
Ajaccio
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Lille
5.0
Lens
4.7
Estac Troyes
4.5
Paris Saint Germain
4.4
Montpellier
4.4
Monaco
4.4
Marseille
4.2
Ajaccio
4.1
Stade Brestois 29
4.1
Angers
4.0
Reims
4.0
Lorient
4.0
Strasbourg
3.9
Nantes
3.9
Clermont Foot
3.9
Toulouse
3.8
Nice
3.8
Rennes
3.7
Lyon
3.5
Auxerre
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Ajaccio
28.2
Toulouse
27.4
Estac Troyes
25.9
Angers
25.1
Montpellier
24.4
Lorient
24.3
Strasbourg
24.0
Monaco
23.9
Lyon
23.8
Reims
23.7
Lille
23.7
Stade Brestois 29
23.5
Clermont Foot
23.5
Nantes
22.7
Auxerre
22.7
Rennes
22.5
Nice
22.4
Marseille
22.2
Lens
22.0
Paris Saint Germain
21.5
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
44.9%
Under 9.5
55.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5
Over 3.5
62.8%
Under 3.5
37.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
70.9%
Under 21.5
29.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.83
0.71
0.64
0.25
1.00
vs Stronger (26)
0.50
0.88
0.77
0.62
0.23
1.15
vs Similar (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
1.00
0.33
0.33
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.80
0.40
0.40
0.80
1.20
vs Stronger (15)
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.67
0.78
1.22
vs Similar (14)
0.57
0.64
0.38
0.25
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajaccio
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.77
0.14
0.79
0.69
0.75
vs Stronger (26)
0.35
0.81
0.08
0.69
0.62
0.92
vs Similar (4)
1.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Estac Troyes) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Estac Troyes
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
1.23
0.67
1.07
0.80
1.40
vs Stronger (15)
0.87
1.27
0.67
1.00
1.00
1.44
vs Similar (14)
0.57
1.21
0.62
1.12
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
17% (-11pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajaccio) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajaccio over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajaccio over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Estac Troyes over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
83.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
80.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 11.5 corners
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
73.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 21.5 fouls
70.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Ajaccio
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Youssef Belaïli29%
Mounaim El Idrissy19%
Romain Hamouma11%
Moussa Soumano7%
Bevic Moussiti Oko6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Cedric Avinel4%
Thomas Mangani4%
Clement Vidal4%
Riad Nouri3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Vincent Marchetti0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Kevin Spadanuda0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Oumar Gonzalez33%
Tony Strata33%
Ismaël Diallo32%
Mounaim El Idrissy31%
Youssouf Koné31%
Vincent Marchetti23%
Moussa Soumano21%
Clement Vidal19%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro17%
Mohamed Youssouf17%
Romain Hamouma16%
Thomas Mangani15%
Florian Chabrolle14%
Kevin Spadanuda14%
Youssef Belaïli12%
Fernand Mayembo9%
Riad Nouri9%
Cyrille Bayala9%
Cedric Avinel8%
Mickaël Alphonse8%
Mathieu Coutadeur7%
Bevic Moussiti Oko6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Benjamin Leroy3%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Qazim Laci0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Youssef Belaïli18%
Romain Hamouma11%
Vincent Marchetti6%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Kevin Spadanuda5%
Thomas Mangani4%
Riad Nouri3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Cedric Avinel0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Mounaim El Idrissy0%
Clement Vidal0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Bevic Moussiti Oko0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Youssef Belaïli18%
Mounaim El Idrissy16%
Bevic Moussiti Oko12%
Romain Hamouma11%
Mickaël Barreto5%
Vincent Marchetti3%
Cyrille Bayala3%
Florian Chabrolle0%
Youssouf Koné0%
Ruan Potó0%
Yoann Touzghar0%
Fernand Mayembo0%
Benjamin Leroy0%
Francois-Joseph Sollacaro0%
Cedric Avinel0%
Ismaël Diallo0%
Mathieu Coutadeur0%
Qazim Laci0%
Riad Nouri0%
Mohamed Youssouf0%
Thomas Mangani0%
Clement Vidal0%
Mickaël Alphonse0%
Oumar Gonzalez0%
Moussa Djitté0%
Kevin Spadanuda0%
Yanis Cimignani0%
Kouamé Jean Fiacre Botué0%
Mehdi Puch-Herrantz0%
Ben Touré0%
Ivane Chegra0%
Tony Strata0%
Moussa Soumano0%
Estac Troyes
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Mama Baldé29%
Rony Lopes22%
Florian Tardieu20%
Renaud Ripart15%
Wilson Odobert12%
Xavier Chavalerin12%
Jackson Porozo9%
Ike Ugbo8%
Abdu Conté5%
Yasser Larouci3%
Yoann Salmier3%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Adil Rami0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Lucien Agoumé40%
Rominigue Kouamé28%
Yoann Salmier16%
Renaud Ripart15%
Mama Baldé15%
Jackson Porozo14%
Florian Tardieu13%
Erik Palmer-Brown13%
Mateusz Lis11%
Adil Rami10%
Gauthier Gallon10%
Xavier Chavalerin9%
Andreas Bruus7%
Papa Ndiaga Yade7%
Rony Lopes6%
Yasser Larouci3%
Thierno Baldé3%
Abdu Conté0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Ike Ugbo0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Wilson Odobert0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde17%
Rony Lopes16%
Papa Ndiaga Yade14%
Abdu Conté11%
Mama Baldé9%
Andreas Bruus7%
Lucien Agoumé7%
Wilson Odobert6%
Xavier Chavalerin6%
Adil Rami5%
Ike Ugbo4%
Renaud Ripart4%
Yasser Larouci3%
Thierno Baldé3%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Jackson Porozo0%
Florian Tardieu0%
Yoann Salmier0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Mama Baldé29%
Rony Lopes16%
Renaud Ripart15%
Jackson Porozo9%
Rominigue Kouamé3%
Wilson Odobert3%
Xavier Chavalerin3%
Abdu Conté0%
Adil Rami0%
Florian Tardieu0%
Andreas Bruus0%
Yoann Salmier0%
Gauthier Gallon0%
Lucien Agoumé0%
Jeff Reine-Adélaïde0%
Tristan Dingomé0%
Erik Palmer-Brown0%
Mateusz Lis0%
Ike Ugbo0%
Papa Ndiaga Yade0%
Yasser Larouci0%
Thierno Baldé0%
Tanguy Zoukrou0%
Alexis Tibidi0%
Kyliane Dong0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
France: Ligue 1 2022/23 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full France: Ligue 1 stats & trends →
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Paris Saint Germain
Lens
Marseille
Rennes
Lille
Monaco
Lyon
Clermont Foot
Nice
Lorient
Reims
Montpellier
Toulouse
Stade Brestois 29
Strasbourg
Nantes
Auxerre
Angers