Ajka’s defensive record at home is solid, conceding just one goal per game, while BVSC’s away form shows a slightly better defensive showing, allowing 0.75 goals on average. The model sees a tight contest, with a 35% chance of a home win, 34% for a draw, and 32% for an away win, making a home win the most likely outcome. The expected total of 2.0 goals points to a low-scoring affair, and the single most likely scoreline is 0-0, with a 15.3% probability. Ajka’s average of 1.07 goals scored at home versus BVSC’s 0.83 away goals suggests a modest edge for the hosts, but the close similarity in strength keeps the match balanced. Suggested picks include Under 3.5, with an 86.3% probability. The home win probability is 35%, the draw 34%, and the away win 32%. The model’s selection Under 3.5 carries an 86.3% chance.
Results analysis
The upset came early as Ajka failed to convert a 2-game winning streak into a victory, with BVSC snatching a 0-1 away win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 35% probability, but the model’s call proved wrong. The model’s selection of Under 3.5 goals, with an 86.3% probability, hit its mark as the match ended with a single goal. Ajka’s recent form had them on a two-game winning run, yet they could not keep the momentum, while BVSC, coming off a win, managed to secure the result. The final score of 0-1 matched the actual outcome, confirming the away triumph.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ajka win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
33.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BVSC win✓ Hit
31.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.6
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.23
1.20
1.00
1.00
1.47
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.50
vs Similar (27)
1.30
1.19
1.07
1.00
1.54
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
0.90
0.75
0.75
0.94
1.00
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
1.50
0.50
1.50
1.17
1.50
vs Similar (22)
0.82
0.68
0.80
0.60
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.0 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
59.9%
Under 1.5
40.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.5%
Under 2.5
68.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.7%
Under 3.5
86.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: No
Yes
40.6%
No
59.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
0-0
15.3%
1-1
14.9%
1-0
12.8%
0-1 ✓
12.0%
2-0
7.1%
2-1
6.8%
1-2
6.5%
0-2
6.4%
Ajka goals ↓
BVSC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
15%
12%
6.4%
2.0%
0.5%
1
13%
15%
6.5%
2.1%
0.5%
2
7.1%
6.8%
3.3%
1.0%
0.3%
3
2.4%
2.3%
1.1%
0.4%
0.1%
4
0.6%
0.6%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajka goals (down), columns = BVSC goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Kisvarda FC
1.93
Kazincbarcikai
1.77
Vasas
1.73
Kozarmisleny FC
1.57
Szentlőrinc SE
1.57
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Szeged 2011
1.40
Budapest Honved
1.33
BVSC
1.27
Csakvar
1.20
Budafoki LC
1.17
Soroksar
1.17
Ajka
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.10
Gyirmot SE
1.03
Tatabánya
0.80
Ajka is 0.10 points worse than BVSC in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.27).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Kisvarda FC
1.90
Kazincbarcikai
1.70
Vasas
1.57
Kozarmisleny FC
1.50
Budafoki LC
1.47
Szentlőrinc SE
1.47
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Soroksar
1.40
Gyirmot SE
1.37
Csakvar
1.37
Budapest Honved
1.37
Szeged 2011
1.20
Ajka
1.03
BVSC
1.03
Bekescsaba 1912
1.00
Tatabánya
0.93
Ajka and BVSC are level in goals scored per game (both 1.03).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Kazincbarcikai
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.07
BVSC
1.07
Szentlőrinc SE
1.07
Vasas
1.17
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.27
Ajka
1.27
Budapest Honved
1.30
Kozarmisleny FC
1.40
Kisvarda FC
1.47
Gyirmot SE
1.53
Soroksar
1.57
Csakvar
1.67
Budafoki LC
1.77
Tatabánya
2.00
Ajka is 0.20 goals worse than BVSC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.07).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.40
0.47
0.60
0.80
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
1.00
0.50
0.00
vs Similar (27)
0.52
0.67
0.43
0.43
0.62
0.92
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.5
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.27
0.42
0.25
0.33
0.28
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
0.38
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.50
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.23
0.50
0.30
0.33
0.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
73% (+46pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.57
0.60
0.53
0.87
0.60
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.52
0.64
0.57
0.92
0.46
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.63
0.33
0.50
0.61
0.72
vs Stronger (8)
0.75
1.12
0.50
1.50
0.83
1.00
vs Similar (22)
0.41
0.45
0.30
0.30
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
BH (25)
€5m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (11)
€3m
KF (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (7)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
BH (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Hungary: NB II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Kisvarda FC
Kazincbarcikai
Vasas
Szentlőrinc SE
Kozarmisleny FC
Mezokovesd-zsory
Szeged 2011
Budapest Honved
Csakvar
Soroksar
Budafoki LC
Bekescsaba 1912
Gyirmot SE
Tatabánya