The contest between Ajka and BVSC is finely balanced, with the model favouring an away victory. Home chances sit at 29%, a draw at 31%, and the visitors hold 40%. The expected total is 2.3 goals, and the most probable aggregate is 2 goals, a 28% probability. The single scoreline the model deems most likely is 1-1, with a 14.4% chance.
Ajka, playing at home against a similarly ranked side, averages 0.88 goals scored and 1.38 conceded. BVSC, on the road against a comparable opponent, averages 1.1 goals scored and 1.3 conceded. Ajka’s recent form shows a 2-game winning streak, while BVSC comes off a win.
The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.0%), Home under 3.5 goals (97.8%), Under 5.5 (96.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (95.9%), Under 4.5 (91.4%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.2%), and Away +2 handicap (88.5%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ajka win
28.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
30.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
BVSC win
40.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
1.13
0.88
1.29
0.92
0.92
vs Stronger (4)
0.75
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.67
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.92
1.15
0.88
1.38
1.00
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
0.97
1.00
1.07
1.20
0.87
vs Stronger (8)
1.00
0.12
0.33
0.33
1.40
0.00
vs Similar (22)
1.14
1.27
1.17
1.25
1.10
1.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
68.7%
Under 1.5
31.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
40.9%
Under 2.5
59.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
20.5%
Under 3.5
79.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
48.0%
No
52.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.4%
0-1
11.2%
0-0
11.1%
1-0
8.9%
1-2
8.4%
0-2
8.0%
2-1
6.8%
2-0
5.3%
Ajka goals ↓
BVSC goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
11%
8.0%
3.4%
1.1%
1
8.9%
14%
8.4%
3.6%
1.1%
2
5.3%
6.8%
4.4%
1.9%
0.6%
3
1.9%
2.4%
1.5%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.5%
0.6%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajka goals (down), columns = BVSC goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Kazincbarcikai
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Ajka is 1.40 points better than BVSC in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 0.80).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.67
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.80
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Ajka is 1.00 goals better than BVSC in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 0.60).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.83
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Ajka is 0.60 goals better than BVSC in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.20).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Ajka or Draw
59.5%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Ajka + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ajka or BVSC
69.4%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Ajka + BVSC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or BVSC
71.1%
Avg Implied -
29%
31%
40%
covers Draw + BVSC
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Ajka over/under 0.5
Over
64.7%
Under
35.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5
Over
28.0%
Under
72.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5
Over
8.8%
Under
91.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 3.5
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 0.5
Over
72.1%
Under
27.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5
Over
36.5%
Under
63.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5
Over
13.8%
Under
86.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 3.5
Over
4.1%
Under
95.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Ajka, so a minus line means Ajka give that many goals of a start and BVSC receive them. At -1, Ajka must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Ajka win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Ajka)
Ajka -2
3.3%
Draw -2
8.1%
BVSC +2
88.5%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Ajka)
Ajka -1
11.5%
Draw -1
17.5%
BVSC +1
71.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Ajka)
Ajka +1
59.5%
Draw +1
21.7%
BVSC -1
18.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Ajka)
Ajka +2
81.2%
Draw +2
12.2%
BVSC -2
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.43
0.57
0.47
0.59
0.38
0.54
vs Stronger (4)
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.42
0.58
0.44
0.62
0.40
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.50
0.47
0.47
0.53
0.53
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.00
0.33
0.00
0.60
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.50
0.68
0.50
0.58
0.50
0.80
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.57
0.41
0.71
0.54
0.38
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.50
0.58
0.44
0.75
0.60
0.30
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (BVSC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
BVSC
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.47
0.53
0.60
0.67
0.33
vs Stronger (8)
0.50
0.12
0.00
0.33
0.80
0.00
vs Similar (22)
0.64
0.59
0.67
0.67
0.60
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
BVSC over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
99.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
95.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
91.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
91.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
88.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 2.5 goals
86.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
81.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 3.5
79.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 1.5 goals
72.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
71.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Ajka and BVSC have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →