Ajka, coming off a win, hosts Karcag SE in the Hungary: NB II. The visitors have been struggling, drawing their last outing 2-2 against Soroksar. Ajka's defense has been somewhat porous, conceding an average of 1.6 goals per match at home, while Karcag SE has allowed 1.23 goals away from home against similar opponents.
The model favours Ajka to win, with a 35% chance of victory. The draw is possible at 33%, while Karcag SE's chances stand at 32%. The expected total goals is 2.1, with a most likely total of 2 goals. The most likely score is 1-1, occurring 14.8% of the time.
Ajka has scored 0.93 goals at home, while Karcag SE has scored 0.77 away from home against similar opponents. The model selects Under 3.5 goals, which is likely to happen in 83.7% of cases.
Results analysis
In a stunning upset, Ajka's 1-1 draw with Karcag SE extends their run of consecutive draws to five, with their last five matches reading DWLLL. The home team's recent form was coming off a draw, having previously tied with the same opponent in a 1-1 scoreline. Meanwhile, Karcag SE's away form was also coming off a draw, having previously tied with Ajka in the same score. The pre-match favourite, a home win, was not the outcome, with the model's call being incorrect. The model had selected a home win with a probability of 35%. The model's selection of Under 3.5 goals hit, with an 83.7% probability, while the most likely total goals was 2, with a 28% probability.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Ajka win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.85
Edge
-13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.95
Betano
1.93
Dafabet
1.93
SBO
1.86
Betfair
1.85
Draw✓ Hit
32.5%
Avg Implied 28.3% · @ 3.16
Edge
+4.3%
Best 5 market prices
Pinnacle
3.34
Marathonbet
3.30
1xBet
3.30
Betfair
3.25
10Bet
3.20
Karcag SE win✗ Miss
32.1%
Avg Implied 23.4% · @ 3.83
Edge
+8.8%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.07
Betfair
4.00
Marathonbet
3.98
Dafabet
3.95
Pinnacle
3.87
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Ajka
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.87
1.27
0.94
1.47
0.77
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.50
vs Similar (27)
0.89
1.30
0.94
1.56
0.82
0.91
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karcag SE
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.37
1.13
1.40
0.93
1.33
vs Stronger (4)
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.00
1.33
2.00
vs Similar (26)
1.00
1.35
1.14
1.50
0.83
1.17
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.1 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
63.7%
@ 1.34-3.4%
Under 1.5
36.3%
@ 2.72+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Betano
1.36
Pinnacle
1.36
Unibet
1.36
Superbet
1.35
Marathonbet
1.33
Under
Pinnacle
2.87
Marathonbet
2.83
1xBet
2.83
Superbet
2.77
Unibet
2.70
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
35.3%
@ 2.07-8.3%
Under 2.5
64.7%
@ 1.60+8.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.15
1xBet
2.12
Marathonbet
2.12
Superbet
2.12
Unibet
2.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.65
1xBet
1.63
Marathonbet
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Betano
1.60
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
16.3%
@ 3.58-8.6%
Under 3.5
83.7%
@ 1.19+8.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
3.82
Marathonbet
3.82
Unibet
3.80
Superbet
3.65
Betano
3.40
Under
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
43.8%
@ 1.89-4.0%
No
56.2%
@ 1.73+4.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Superbet
1.95
1xBet
1.92
Marathonbet
1.92
William Hil
1.91
Betano
1.87
No
Superbet
1.77
1xBet
1.75
William Hil
1.75
Betano
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
14.8%@ 5.87+7.7%
0-0
13.5%@ 7.07+7.6%
1-0
11.8%@ 5.47+4.2%
0-1
11.1%@ 8.91+6.4%
2-1
7.3%@ 7.52+1.8%
2-0
7.1%@ 7.49+1.6%
1-2
6.9%@ 12.25+3.5%
0-2
6.4%@ 18.46+4.1%
Ajka goals ↓
Karcag SE goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
13%
11%
6.4%
2.2%
0.6%
1
12%
15%
6.9%
2.4%
0.6%
2
7.1%
7.3%
3.7%
1.3%
0.3%
3
2.6%
2.7%
1.4%
0.5%
0.1%
4
0.7%
0.7%
0.4%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajka goals (down), columns = Karcag SE goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Soroksar
2.67
Ajka
2.20
Kecskeméti TE
2.17
Kazincbarcikai
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.80
Karcag SE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
1.67
Szentlőrinc SE
1.40
Fehérvár FC
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Diosgyori VTK
0.80
BVSC
0.80
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.50
Csakvar
0.50
Kozarmisleny FC
0.00
Ajka is 0.53 points better than Karcag SE in terms of average points per game (2.20 vs 1.67).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Soroksar
2.83
Karcag SE
2.00
Kecskeméti TE
2.00
Tiszakecske FC
2.00
Gyirmot SE
1.83
Kazincbarcikai
1.67
Ajka
1.60
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.40
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Diosgyori VTK
1.00
Csakvar
1.00
Nagykanizsai ULE
0.83
Szeged 2011
0.80
BVSC
0.60
Kozarmisleny FC
0.50
Ajka is 0.40 goals worse than Karcag SE in terms of goals scored per game (1.60 vs 2.00).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Ajka
0.60
Soroksar
0.67
Kazincbarcikai
0.83
Kecskeméti TE
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.00
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.00
Tiszakecske FC
1.17
BVSC
1.20
Szentlőrinc SE
1.20
Karcag SE
1.33
Fehérvár FC
1.50
Nagykanizsai ULE
1.67
Gyirmot SE
2.00
Kozarmisleny FC
2.50
Diosgyori VTK
2.60
Csakvar
2.67
Ajka is 0.73 goals better than Karcag SE in terms of goals conceded per game (0.60 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
⚖️ 7. Handicap
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Ajka
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.41
0.59
0.23
0.62
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.67
1.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.33
0.59
0.38
0.62
0.27
0.55
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karcag SE
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
0.60
0.27
0.67
0.40
0.53
vs Stronger (4)
0.25
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.33
0.67
vs Similar (26)
0.35
0.62
0.29
0.71
0.42
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Under
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Ajka
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.53
0.88
0.54
0.38
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
0.33
0.00
0.00
0.50
0.50
vs Similar (27)
0.56
0.70
0.56
0.94
0.55
0.36
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Karcag SE) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Karcag SE
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.8
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.77
0.87
0.73
0.53
0.80
vs Stronger (4)
1.00
1.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.33
vs Similar (26)
0.65
0.73
0.86
0.79
0.42
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Karcag SE over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 3.5
83.7%
1.19
Betano
1.23
Superbet
1.20
1xBet
1.19
Unibet
1.19
Marathonbet
1.19
+8.6%
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (22)
€3m
DV (18)
€3m
FF (22)
€2m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
TF (18)
€1m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
KS (16)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Ajka and Karcag SE have a similar squad value (both €2m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
KT (9)
€1m
FF (10)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
DV (5)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
TF (8)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
KS (7)
€0m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Ajka and Karcag SE have a similar attack value (both €1m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (4)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
KT (2)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
FF (3)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
KS (1)
€0m
Ajka and Karcag SE have a similar midfield value (both €0m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
DV (9)
€1m
KT (11)
€1m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
FF (9)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
KS (8)
€0m
TF (5)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Ajka and Karcag SE have a similar defence value (both €1m).
Hungary: NB II 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Soroksar
Kecskeméti TE
Tiszakecske FC
Kazincbarcikai
Gyirmot SE
Mezokovesd-zsory
Szentlőrinc SE
Fehérvár FC
Szeged 2011
BVSC
Diosgyori VTK
Nagykanizsai ULE
Csakvar
Kozarmisleny FC