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Ajka vs Kozarmisleny FC Result & Analysis

Date: 06/10/2024
Time: 15:00
Final 1-1
Ajka
Ajka
Vs
35%
28%
36%
■ Home   ■ Draw   ■ Away
Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
Hungary: NB II
Referee: -

🎯 1. Model Analysis

Ajka win✗ Miss
35.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✓ Hit
28.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC win✗ Miss
36.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.

⚽ 2. Goal Analysis

AjkaAjka

Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L01L03L00D21W32W23L22D22D21WH·GYO26/05H·SZE28/07A·BEK04/08H·SZE11/08A·BUD18/08H·KIS25/08A·VAS01/09A·NAG14/09H·BUD22/09A·TAT29/09
Avg total
2.9
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.6
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.230.971.140.791.311.12
vs Stronger (4)0.501.250.001.000.671.33
vs Similar (26)1.350.921.230.771.461.08
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %33% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC

Last 10 – goals for & against
40-402L11D00D20W23L42W11D04L32W32WH·NYI25/05H·BEK28/07H·SZE04/08H·BUD11/08A·KIS18/08H·VAS25/08A·BUD01/09H·KEC15/09H·TAT22/09A·KAZ29/09
Avg total
3.3
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.7
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game1.571.501.561.191.571.86
vs Stronger (6)1.172.501.252.001.003.50
vs Similar (24)1.671.251.670.921.671.58
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %30% (+3pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Total goals distribution

6%13%19%26%8%016%126%222%315%48%56%6+
The model estimates around 2.7 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
76.3%
Under 1.5
23.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
50.6%
Under 2.5
49.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
28.5%
Under 3.5
71.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
56.0%
No
44.0%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.

Correct score

Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1 ✓
13.5%
1-2
8.3%
2-1
8.2%
0-0
8.0%
0-1
7.9%
1-0
7.8%
0-2
6.2%
2-0
6.0%
Ajka goals ↓
Kozarmisleny FC goals →
01234
08.0%7.9%6.2%2.8%1.0%
17.8%13%8.3%3.8%1.3%
26.0%8.2%5.6%2.5%0.9%
32.7%3.7%2.5%1.1%0.4%
40.9%1.2%0.8%0.4%0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Ajka goals (down), columns = Kozarmisleny FC goals (across).

💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis

🏆 Total PPG

Points / game
Kisvarda FC
1.93
Kazincbarcikai
1.77
Vasas
1.73
Kozarmisleny FC
1.57
Szentlőrinc SE
1.57
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Szeged 2011
1.40
Budapest Honved
1.33
BVSC
1.27
Csakvar
1.20
Budafoki LC
1.17
Soroksar
1.17
Ajka
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.10
Gyirmot SE
1.03
Tatabánya
0.80
Ajka is 0.40 points worse than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of average points per game (1.17 vs 1.57).

⚔️ Attack

Goals scored / game
Kisvarda FC
1.90
Kazincbarcikai
1.70
Vasas
1.57
Kozarmisleny FC
1.50
Budafoki LC
1.47
Szentlőrinc SE
1.47
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.47
Soroksar
1.40
Gyirmot SE
1.37
Csakvar
1.37
Budapest Honved
1.37
Szeged 2011
1.20
Ajka
1.03
BVSC
1.03
Bekescsaba 1912
1.00
Tatabánya
0.93
Ajka is 0.47 goals worse than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of goals scored per game (1.03 vs 1.50).

🛡️ Defense

Conceded / game · lower better
Kazincbarcikai
1.00
Szeged 2011
1.07
BVSC
1.07
Szentlőrinc SE
1.07
Vasas
1.17
Mezokovesd-zsory
1.17
Bekescsaba 1912
1.27
Ajka
1.27
Budapest Honved
1.30
Kozarmisleny FC
1.40
Kisvarda FC
1.47
Gyirmot SE
1.53
Soroksar
1.57
Csakvar
1.67
Budafoki LC
1.77
Tatabánya
2.00
Ajka is 0.13 goals better than Kozarmisleny FC in terms of goals conceded per game (1.27 vs 1.40).

⏱️ Possession

Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.

🎲 4. Props Analysis

Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.

🔀 5. Double Chance

Double Chance

Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.

🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under

⚖️ 7. Handicap

⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U

AjkaAjka

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
20-201L01L01L00D11D20W10W22D11D21WH·GYO26/05H·SZE28/07A·BEK04/08H·SZE11/08A·BUD18/08H·KIS25/08A·VAS01/09A·NAG14/09H·BUD22/09A·TAT29/09
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.500.470.430.360.560.56
vs Stronger (4)0.250.250.001.000.330.00
vs Similar (26)0.540.500.460.310.620.69
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %57% (+29pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC

Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L00D00D00D22D11D01L03L11D10WH·NYI25/05H·BEK28/07H·SZE04/08H·BUD11/08A·KIS18/08H·VAS25/08A·BUD01/09H·KEC15/09H·TAT22/09A·KAZ29/09
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.9
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.700.830.560.620.861.07
vs Stronger (6)0.671.500.501.251.002.00
vs Similar (24)0.710.670.580.420.830.92
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U

AjkaAjka

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-300D00D02L00D10W12L13L00D11D00DH·GYO26/05H·SZE28/07A·BEK04/08H·SZE11/08A·BUD18/08H·KIS25/08A·VAS01/09A·NAG14/09H·BUD22/09A·TAT29/09
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.730.500.710.430.750.56
vs Stronger (4)0.251.000.000.000.331.33
vs Similar (26)0.810.420.770.460.850.38
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %63% (+36pp vs league)
This opponent (Kozarmisleny FC) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.

Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC

Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
30-301L11D00D20W01L31W10W01L21W22DH·NYI25/05H·BEK28/07H·SZE04/08H·BUD11/08A·KIS18/08H·VAS25/08A·BUD01/09H·KEC15/09H·TAT22/09A·KAZ29/09
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.8
SplitTotal
Scored
Total
Conceded
Home
Scored
Home
Conceded
Away
Scored
Away
Conceded
Avg goals/game0.870.671.000.560.710.79
vs Stronger (6)0.501.000.750.750.001.50
vs Similar (24)0.960.581.080.500.830.67
vs Weaker (0)------
Clean sheet %43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Ajka) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U

How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Ajka over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ajka over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Kozarmisleny FC over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.

🔥 12. Top picks for this game

Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
PickProbabilityAvg oddsBest 1Best 2Best 3Best 4Best 5EdgeResult
Over 1.576.3%-------✓ Hit
Under 3.571.5%-------✓ Hit

💰 14. Squad value

💰 Total value

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (28)
€7m
KF (25)
€6m
BH (25)
€5m
KAZ (19)
€2m
S2 (23)
€2m
MEZ (17)
€2m
BVS (17)
€2m
AJK (20)
€2m
KF (19)
€2m
SS (19)
€1m
SOR (17)
€1m
CSA (11)
€1m
Ajka and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar squad value (both €2m).

⚔️ Attack

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (11)
€3m
KF (8)
€2m
BH (6)
€1m
MEZ (7)
€1m
SOR (7)
€1m
KAZ (7)
€1m
SS (7)
€1m
AJK (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€0m
KF (6)
€0m
S2 (6)
€0m
CSA (3)
€0m
Ajka and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar attack value (both €1m).

🧠 Midfield

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
VAS (7)
€2m
KF (7)
€2m
BH (5)
€1m
BVS (5)
€1m
KAZ (4)
€0m
S2 (5)
€0m
SS (4)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
KF (4)
€0m
MEZ (1)
€0m
SOR (4)
€0m
AJK (2)
€0m
Ajka and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar midfield value (both €0m).

🛡️ Defence

Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
BH (14)
€3m
KF (10)
€2m
VAS (10)
€2m
KAZ (8)
€1m
S2 (12)
€1m
MEZ (9)
€1m
AJK (13)
€1m
KF (9)
€1m
BVS (7)
€1m
SS (8)
€0m
SOR (6)
€0m
CSA (4)
€0m
Ajka and Kozarmisleny FC have a similar defence value (both €1m).

🤝 15. Games History

H2H record

4 previous meetings
2
AJK wins
0
Draws
2
KF wins
Full head-to-head record ↗

Head-to-head

Ajka vs Kozarmisleny FC · H/A from AJK
DateH/AGameScore
21/04/24AKozarmisleny FC Vs AJK1-0
22/10/23HAJK Vs Kozarmisleny FC0-3
05/02/23AKozarmisleny FC Vs AJK0-1
14/08/22HAJK Vs Kozarmisleny FC4-2

AjkaAjka

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24ATatabánya Vs AJK1-2
22/09/24HAJK Vs Budafoki LC2-2
14/09/24ANagykanizsai ULE Vs AJK2-2
01/09/24AVasas Vs AJK3-2
25/08/24HAJK Vs Kisvarda FC3-2
18/08/24ABudapest Honved Vs AJK1-2
11/08/24HAJK Vs Szeged 20110-0
04/08/24ABekescsaba 1912 Vs AJK3-0
28/07/24HAJK Vs Szentlőrinc SE0-1
26/05/24HAJK Vs Gyori ETO FC0-1

Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC

Last 10 games · H/A coloured by result
DateH/AGameScore
29/09/24AKazincbarcikai Vs KF2-3
22/09/24HKF Vs Tatabánya3-2
15/09/24HKF Vs Kecskeméti TE0-4
01/09/24ABudafoki LC Vs KF1-1
25/08/24HKF Vs Vasas4-2
18/08/24AKisvarda FC Vs KF3-2
11/08/24HKF Vs Budapest Honved2-0
04/08/24HKF Vs Szeged 20110-0
28/07/24HKF Vs Bekescsaba 19121-1
25/05/24HKF Vs Nyiregyhaza0-2

📊 16. Overall Statistics

Ajka
Ajka
Hungary: NB II
Recent: 3 Wins / 3 Draws / 4 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWLDDW1.36
HomeLLDWD1.48
AwayLWLDW1.24
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %40%44%36%
AVG goals2.081.882.28
Over 1.5 %58%48%68%
Over 2.5 %36%28%44%
Over 3.5 %16%16%16%
Scored1.020.881.16
Conceded1.061.001.12
BTTS36%28%44%
Clean Sheet30%36%24%
Corners---
Cards---
Kozarmisleny FC
Kozarmisleny FC
Hungary: NB II
Recent: 4 Wins / 3 Draws / 3 Losses
FormResultsPPG
OverallWDLWW1.58
HomeDWWLW1.69
AwayLWLDW1.46
StatsOverallHomeAway
Win %46%50%42%
AVG goals2.962.853.08
Over 1.5 %84%85%83%
Over 2.5 %54%46%62%
Over 3.5 %26%23%29%
Scored1.621.621.62
Conceded1.341.231.46
BTTS54%46%62%
Clean Sheet28%31%25%
Corners---
Cards---

🏆 17. League Table

RecordGoalsProps / gameSquad value €mStrengths
RankTeamMPPtsWin%PPGGFGAGDG/GO1.5O2.5O3.5CorCor O%CrdCrd O%FlsFls O%TotAttMidDefAtt/gDef/gPoss%
1Kisvarda FCKisvarda FC3058
57%
1.9
5744+13
3.4
87%
63%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
6
2221.91.5
-
2KazincbarcikaiKazincbarcikai3053
47%
1.8
5130+21
2.7
73%
47%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.71.0
-
3VasasVasas3052
53%
1.7
4735+12
2.7
70%
60%
33%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
7
3221.61.2
-
4Szentlőrinc SESzentlőrinc SE3047
40%
1.6
4432+12
2.5
77%
40%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.51.1
-
5Kozarmisleny FCKozarmisleny FC3047
43%
1.6
4542+3
2.9
83%
40%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.51.4
-
6Mezokovesd-zsoryMezokovesd-zsory3044
40%
1.5
4435+9
2.6
77%
50%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.51.2
-
7Szeged 2011Szeged 20113042
33%
1.4
3632+4
2.3
70%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0011.21.1
-
8Budapest HonvedBudapest Honved3040
37%
1.3
4139+2
2.7
77%
53%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
5
1131.41.3
-
9BVSCBVSC3038
27%
1.3
3132-1
2.1
57%
40%
23%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
0111.01.1
-
10CsakvarCsakvar3036
33%
1.2
4150-9
3.0
87%
70%
40%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
0001.41.7
-
11SoroksarSoroksar3035
30%
1.2
4247-5
3.0
80%
60%
43%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
1
1001.41.6
-
12AjkaAjka3035
27%
1.2
3138-7
2.3
67%
40%
27%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
2
1011.01.3
-
13Budafoki LCBudafoki LC3035
30%
1.2
4453-9
3.2
87%
67%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.51.8
-
14Bekescsaba 1912Bekescsaba 19123033
27%
1.1
3038-8
2.3
67%
40%
17%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.01.3
-
15Gyirmot SEGyirmot SE3031
23%
1.0
4146-5
2.9
83%
50%
30%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0001.41.5
-
16TatabányaTatabánya3024
20%
0.8
2860-32
2.9
73%
53%
37%
-
0%
-
0%
-
0%
0
0000.92.0
-
Hungary: NB II 2024/25 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Hungary: NB II stats & trends →

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