Akademiya Ontustik’s recent win and a high-scoring average of 2.0 goals per game at home suggest a lively contest, while Aktobe Jas, who have struggled away against stronger sides, average just 1.08 goals scored and 2.75 conceded. The model projects a 54 % chance of a home victory, 20 % for a draw and 26 % for an away win, with the home win being the favoured result. The expected total of 4.3 goals points to a high-scoring affair, and the most likely total is 6+ goals, with a 26 % probability. The single most probable scoreline is 2-1 for Akademiya Ontustik, a 7.7 % chance. Suggested picks include Over 1.5 goals at 93.3 %, Under 7.5 at 93.0 %, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.0 %, Away under 3.5 goals at 89.7 %, Home +2 handicap at 87.0 %, Under 6.5 at 85.7 %, Away over 0.5 goals at 82.9 % and Over 2.5 at 80.1 %. These selections reflect the model’s confidence in a high-scoring home win.
Results analysis
Akademiya Ontustik continued their three-game winning streak, beating Aktobe Jas 2-1 and confirming the model’s home win pick. The pre-match favourite, Home win, was chosen with a 54% probability and proved correct. The model’s selections performed strongly: Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.9%, Away under 2.5 2H goals at 97.8%, Over 1.5 at 93.4%, Under 7.5 at 93.0%, Away under 1.5 HT goals at 92.6%, Home under 2.5 HT goals at 92.0%, Home over 0.5 goals at 92.0%, and Away under 1.5 2H goals at 89.7%. All picks settled as predicted. The match finished 2-1, a result that matched the model’s forecast and reinforced its accuracy.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik win✓ Hit
53.9%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
20.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas win✗ Miss
26.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.8
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
1.67
2.14
2.07
1.62
1.31
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.88
1.62
2.36
2.09
1.46
1.23
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.7
Avg scored
2.0
Avg conceded
2.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
2.77
0.93
3.00
1.73
2.53
vs Stronger (25)
1.00
3.00
0.92
3.23
1.08
2.75
vs Similar (5)
3.00
1.60
1.00
1.50
4.33
1.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
7% (-18pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 4.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 6+ (26%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
93.4%
Under 1.5
6.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
80.1%
Under 2.5
19.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
62.1%
Under 3.5
37.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
76.9%
No
23.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
2-1 ✓
7.7%
2-2
6.8%
1-1
6.7%
3-1
6.5%
3-2
5.7%
1-2
5.4%
2-0
4.4%
4-1
4.1%
Akademiya Ontustik goals ↓
Aktobe Jas goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
2.0%
1.8%
2.1%
1.3%
0.6%
1
2.9%
6.7%
5.4%
3.2%
1.4%
2
4.4%
7.7%
6.8%
4.0%
1.8%
3
3.7%
6.5%
5.7%
3.4%
1.5%
4
2.3%
4.1%
3.6%
2.1%
0.9%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akademiya Ontustik goals (down), columns = Aktobe Jas goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Akademiya Ontustik is 1.50 points better than Aktobe Jas in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 0.88).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.75 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.25).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Akademiya Ontustik is 1.62 goals better than Aktobe Jas in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.88).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akademiya Ontustik or Draw✓ Hit
73.9%
Avg Implied -
54%
20%
26%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik or Aktobe Jas✓ Hit
80.0%
Avg Implied -
54%
20%
26%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Aktobe Jas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Aktobe Jas✗ Miss
46.1%
Avg Implied -
54%
20%
26%
covers Draw + Aktobe Jas
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
92.0%
Under
8.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
71.7%
Under
28.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
46.2%
Under
53.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
24.7%
Under
75.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
82.9%
Under
17.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
52.7%
Under
47.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
26.0%
Under
74.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akademiya Ontustik, so a minus line means Akademiya Ontustik give that many goals of a start and Aktobe Jas receive them. At -1, Akademiya Ontustik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akademiya Ontustik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akademiya Ontustik)Actual: Aktobe Jas
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.33
1.13
0.33
1.20
0.33
1.07
vs Stronger (25)
0.32
1.20
0.31
1.31
0.33
1.08
vs Similar (5)
0.40
0.80
0.50
0.50
0.33
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
30% (+6pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
77.8%
Under 0.5
22.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
46.1%
Under 1.5
53.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
23.0%
Under 2.5
77.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
66.3%
Under
33.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
37.7%
Under
62.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.0%
Under
92.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
32.7%
Under
67.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
7.4%
Under
92.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.1%
Under
98.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.1
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
0.97
1.21
1.14
0.88
0.81
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
0.88
1.27
1.09
0.92
0.69
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Aktobe Jas) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Aktobe Jas
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.1
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
1.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.63
0.60
1.80
1.40
1.47
vs Stronger (25)
0.68
1.80
0.62
1.92
0.75
1.67
vs Similar (5)
2.60
0.80
0.50
1.00
4.00
0.67
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
83.4%
Under 0.5
16.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
56.4%
Under 1.5
43.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
31.0%
Under 2.5
69.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
75.3%
Under
24.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
42.0%
Under
58.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
12.8%
Under
87.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
43.8%
Under
56.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
10.3%
Under
89.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Aktobe Jas over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.2%
Under
97.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 7.5
93.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
92.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 2H goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
89.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
87.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
82.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5
80.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Away
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
77.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
77.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
BTTS Yes
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 2H goals
75.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
74.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
73.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
73.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 1.5 goals
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →