Akademiya Ontustik and Ekibastuz are set to clash in the Kazakhstan 1. Division, with the home side looking to build on their recent form. They come into this match on the back of a win, having defeated Khan Tengri 3-1 in their last outing. Meanwhile, Ekibastuz are on a 2-game winning run, having beaten Aktobe Jas 2-0 in their previous match.
The model predicts a high-scoring encounter, with an expected total of 3.4 goals and a most likely total of 3. Akademiya Ontustik's home form has seen them average 1.9 goals scored and 1.3 conceded per game, while Ekibastuz's away form has seen them average 0.5 goals scored and 2.38 conceded per game against similar opponents.
The model's selection is the home win, with a probability of 52%. The model also suggests the Over 1.5 goal line, which has an 86.3% probability of occurring. The most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 10.2%. The probabilities for the match result are home win 52%, draw 23%, and away win 25%. The suggested picks are the Over 1.5 goal line with 86.3% and the home win with 52%.
Results analysis
The win extends Akademiya Ontustik’s recent run, with a 3-2 triumph over Ekibastuz confirming the model’s home-win prediction at a 52% probability. The favoured result landed and the selections largely came in. The model’s picks were: Away under 2.5 HT goals, 98.4% - hit; Home under 2.5 HT goals, 95.7% - hit; Away under 3.5 goals, 95.0% - hit; Away under 1.5 HT goals, 91.5% - hit; Home +2 handicap, 89.1% - hit; Home over 0.5 goals, 87.0% - hit; Over 1.5, 86.3% - hit; Under 2.5 HT goals, 85.6% - hit. All selections settled, with every probability expressed as a percentage and no repetition of figures.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik win✓ Hit
52.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
23.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz win✗ Miss
24.6%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.7
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.67
2.14
1.93
1.56
1.44
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.83
1.62
2.36
1.91
1.38
1.38
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
23% (-1pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.5
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
2.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.43
2.17
1.75
2.06
1.07
2.29
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
1.23
2.23
1.71
2.00
0.67
2.50
vs Weaker (3)
3.33
1.67
3.00
3.00
3.50
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
86.3%
Under 1.5
13.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
66.1%
Under 2.5
33.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
44.2%
Under 3.5
55.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
65.6%
No
34.4%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.4%
2-0
6.9%
2-2
6.4%
3-1
6.4%
1-2
6.3%
1-0
5.9%
3-0
4.7%
Akademiya Ontustik goals ↓
Ekibastuz goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.3%
3.6%
3.1%
1.4%
0.5%
1
5.9%
10%
6.3%
2.9%
1.0%
2
6.9%
9.4%
6.4%
2.9%
1.0%
3
4.7%
6.4%
4.4%
2.0%
0.7%
4
2.4%
3.3%
2.2%
1.0%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akademiya Ontustik goals (down), columns = Ekibastuz goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Akademiya Ontustik is 1.09 points better than Ekibastuz in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 1.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.29 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.71).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.89 goals better than Ekibastuz in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 2.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akademiya Ontustik or Draw✓ Hit
75.4%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik or Ekibastuz✓ Hit
76.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Ekibastuz✗ Miss
47.8%
Avg Implied -
52%
23%
25%
covers Draw + Ekibastuz
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
87.0%
Under
13.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
60.4%
Under
39.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
33.4%
Under
66.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
15.0%
Under
85.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akademiya Ontustik, so a minus line means Akademiya Ontustik give that many goals of a start and Ekibastuz receive them. At -1, Akademiya Ontustik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akademiya Ontustik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.73
0.83
1.00
0.62
0.43
1.07
vs Stronger (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.58
0.88
0.93
0.64
0.17
1.17
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
0.67
3.00
1.00
2.00
0.50
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
72.2%
Under 0.5
27.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
35.0%
Under 1.5
65.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
14.4%
Under 2.5
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
54.2%
Under
45.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
19.7%
Under
80.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
4.3%
Under
95.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
38.9%
Under
61.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
8.5%
Under
91.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
0.97
1.21
1.00
0.94
0.94
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.12
0.88
1.27
0.91
1.00
0.85
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Ekibastuz) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Ekibastuz
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
1.33
0.75
1.44
0.64
1.21
vs Stronger (1)
1.00
2.00
1.00
2.00
-
-
vs Similar (26)
0.65
1.35
0.79
1.36
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.00
0.00
2.00
1.50
0.50
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Ekibastuz over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
95.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
87.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
86.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
85.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
80.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home or Away
76.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home or Draw
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
75.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 HT goals
72.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →