Akademiya Ontustik are coming off a win, having beaten Khan Tengri 3-1 in their last encounter, with the home side's recent form reading WLWWL. In contrast, Khan Tengri have suffered 5 straight defeats, with their last 5 matches ending in LLLLL. This recent-form note adds to the narrative of a high-scoring match, with the expected total goals standing at 3.4.
The model predicts a home win with a 55% probability, a draw at 23%, and an away win at 22%. The most likely scoreline is 1-1, occurring with a 10.2% probability. Akademiya Ontustik have averaged 2 goals scored and 1.25 conceded at home, while Khan Tengri have averaged 1.17 goals scored and 2 conceded away from home. The model's selection is the Over 1.5 goals, which is predicted to hit with an 85.7% probability. The home side's win percentage stands at 55%, the draw at 23%, and the away win at 22%. The model's selections include the Over 1.5 goals at 85.7% and the Home win at 55%.
Results analysis
The win extends Akademiya Ontustik's run, following a 3-1 victory over Khan Tengri. The final score of 3-1 confirmed the actual result, a home win. The model correctly picked the home win, its pre-match probability of 55% proving accurate. The model's selection was also correct in predicting over 1.5 goals, a probability of 85.7% that paid off. The suggested pick of over 1.5 goals hit, while the other selections remain untested.
Advertisement
ðŊ 1. Model Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik winâ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Drawâ Miss
22.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri winâ Miss
22.0%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
â― 2. Goal Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.73
1.77
1.80
2.00
1.67
1.53
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (24)
1.71
1.75
1.92
2.00
1.50
1.50
vs Weaker (3)
2.33
1.33
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
2.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
2.07
0.94
1.56
0.71
2.64
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
3.67
0.00
2.00
1.00
7.00
vs Similar (26)
0.88
1.85
1.07
1.50
0.67
2.25
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
3.00
-
-
1.00
3.00
Clean sheet %
10% (-14pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.4 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
85.7%
Under 1.5
14.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
65.2%
Under 2.5
34.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
43.2%
Under 3.5
56.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
63.9%
No
36.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.2%
2-1
9.6%
2-0
7.6%
3-1 â
6.7%
1-0
6.4%
2-2
6.1%
1-2
5.9%
3-0
5.3%
Akademiya Ontustik goals ↓
Khan Tengri goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
4.4%
3.5%
2.8%
1.2%
0.4%
1
6.4%
10%
5.9%
2.5%
0.8%
2
7.6%
9.6%
6.1%
2.6%
0.8%
3
5.3%
6.7%
4.3%
1.8%
0.6%
4
2.7%
3.5%
2.2%
0.9%
0.3%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akademiya Ontustik goals (down), columns = Khan Tengri goals (across).
Advertisement
ðŠ 3. Team Strengths Analysis
ð Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Akademiya Ontustik is 1.50 points better than Khan Tengri in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 0.88).
âïļ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Akademiya Ontustik is 1.00 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 1.00).
ðĄïļ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.50 goals better than Khan Tengri in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.75).
âąïļ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
ðē 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
ð 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Advertisement
ðĨ 6. Home & Away Over/Under
âïļ 7. Handicap
âąïļ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.70
0.67
0.73
0.80
0.67
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
0.62
0.71
0.83
0.83
0.42
0.58
vs Weaker (3)
1.33
0.00
0.00
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+22pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.37
0.87
0.50
0.69
0.21
1.07
vs Stronger (3)
0.33
1.00
0.00
0.50
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (26)
0.38
0.81
0.57
0.71
0.17
0.92
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
2.00
-
-
0.00
2.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
âąïļ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.10
1.07
1.20
1.00
1.00
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (24)
1.08
1.04
1.08
1.17
1.08
0.92
vs Weaker (3)
1.00
1.33
2.00
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Khan Tengri) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Khan Tengri
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
1.20
0.44
0.88
0.50
1.57
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
2.67
0.00
1.50
0.00
5.00
vs Similar (26)
0.50
1.04
0.50
0.79
0.50
1.33
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
37% (+12pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
ðĨ 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Khan Tengri over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Advertisement
ðĨ 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Over 1.5
85.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
â Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Sport Academy Kairat
Turan Turkistan
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2