Akademiya Ontustik’s recent 2-game winning streak gives them confidence at home, yet their average of 2.36 goals scored and 2.09 conceded against similar opposition suggests a porous defense. Turan Turkistan, arriving on a win, has been less prolific, averaging 1.55 goals scored and 1.73 conceded away, but their attacking edge could prove decisive. The model projects a high-scoring affair with an expected 3.3 goals, centring on a 3-goal total that carries a 22% probability. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, with a 10.5% chance. The favoured outcome is an away win, with the model assigning 55% to Turan Turkistan, 22% to a home victory and 23% to a draw. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 (98.1%), Home under 3.5 goals (96.3%), Under 6.5 (95.1%), Away +2 handicap (90.9%), Under 5.5 (88.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (87.3%), Away over 0.5 goals (87.1%) and Away under 3.5 goals (84.9%).
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik win
21.8%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw
23.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan win
54.7%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akademiya Ontustik
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
3.7
Avg scored
1.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.83
1.70
2.13
2.00
1.53
1.40
vs Stronger (3)
1.33
2.33
1.00
2.50
2.00
2.00
vs Similar (23)
1.83
1.70
2.36
2.09
1.33
1.33
vs Weaker (4)
2.25
1.25
2.00
1.00
2.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
17% (-8pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
4.5
Avg scored
2.3
Avg conceded
2.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
2.17
1.07
2.13
1.20
2.20
vs Stronger (8)
0.62
3.88
1.00
4.25
0.25
3.50
vs Similar (21)
1.29
1.57
1.00
1.40
1.55
1.73
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 3.2 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 3 (22%).
Over/Under 1.5
Over 1.5
84.1%
Under 1.5
15.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5
Over 2.5
62.5%
Under 2.5
37.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5
Over 3.5
40.2%
Under 3.5
59.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to score
Yes
61.9%
No
38.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
10.7%
1-2
9.8%
0-2
8.0%
0-1
7.0%
1-3
6.5%
2-2
5.9%
2-1
5.9%
0-3
5.4%
Akademiya Ontustik goals ↓
Turan Turkistan goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
5.0%
7.0%
8.0%
5.4%
2.7%
1
3.9%
11%
9.8%
6.5%
3.3%
2
2.9%
5.9%
5.9%
4.0%
2.0%
3
1.2%
2.4%
2.4%
1.6%
0.8%
4
0.4%
0.7%
0.7%
0.5%
0.2%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akademiya Ontustik goals (down), columns = Turan Turkistan goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.00
Akademiya Ontustik
2.38
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.12
Taraz
1.50
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.43
Ekibastuz
1.29
Jaiyq
1.14
Astana II
1.12
Arys
1.00
Aktobe Jas
0.88
Khan Tengri
0.88
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Tobol 2
0.38
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.09 points better than Turan Turkistan in terms of average points per game (2.38 vs 2.29).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Shakhter Karagandy
3.43
Turan Turkistan
2.29
Sport Academy Kairat
2.25
Akademiya Ontustik
2.00
Ekibastuz
1.71
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.71
Tobol 2
1.38
Aktobe Jas
1.25
Astana II
1.12
Jaiyq
1.00
Taraz
1.00
Khan Tengri
1.00
Arys
1.00
Yelimay Semey 2
0.86
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.29 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals scored per game (2.00 vs 2.29).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Shakhter Karagandy
0.29
Sport Academy Kairat
0.38
Jaiyq
1.00
Turan Turkistan
1.14
Taraz
1.25
Akademiya Ontustik
1.25
Kaspij Aktau 2
1.57
Arys
1.62
Khan Tengri
1.75
Yelimay Semey 2
1.86
Ekibastuz
2.14
Tobol 2
2.25
Astana II
2.25
Aktobe Jas
2.88
Akademiya Ontustik is 0.11 goals worse than Turan Turkistan in terms of goals conceded per game (1.25 vs 1.14).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Possession isn't tracked for this league.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Corners, cards and fouls aren't tracked for this league, so prop analysis isn't available here. Result, goals and both-teams-to-score markets are unaffected.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akademiya Ontustik or Draw
45.3%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik or Turan Turkistan
76.5%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Akademiya Ontustik + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Turan Turkistan
78.2%
Avg Implied -
22%
23%
55%
covers Draw + Turan Turkistan
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5
Over
70.4%
Under
29.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5
Over
34.3%
Under
65.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5
Over
12.4%
Under
87.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 3.5
Over
3.5%
Under
96.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5
Over
86.5%
Under
13.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5
Over
59.6%
Under
40.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5
Over
32.5%
Under
67.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 3.5
Over
14.4%
Under
85.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akademiya Ontustik, so a minus line means Akademiya Ontustik give that many goals of a start and Turan Turkistan receive them. At -1, Akademiya Ontustik must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akademiya Ontustik win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akademiya Ontustik)
Akademiya Ontustik -2
2.9%
Draw -2
6.2%
Turan Turkistan +2
90.9%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Akademiya Ontustik)
Akademiya Ontustik -1
9.1%
Draw -1
12.7%
Turan Turkistan +1
78.2%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Akademiya Ontustik)
Akademiya Ontustik +1
45.3%
Draw +1
21.7%
Turan Turkistan -1
33.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Akademiya Ontustik)
Akademiya Ontustik +2
67.0%
Draw +2
16.9%
Turan Turkistan -2
16.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.7
Avg scored
1.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.83
0.70
0.93
0.87
0.73
0.53
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
0.78
0.78
1.09
1.00
0.50
0.58
vs Weaker (4)
1.25
0.00
0.50
0.00
2.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
43% (+19pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.93
0.47
0.73
0.60
1.13
vs Stronger (8)
0.25
1.88
0.50
1.75
0.00
2.00
vs Similar (21)
0.67
0.62
0.50
0.40
0.82
0.82
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
0.00
0.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
57% (+32pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No half-time model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 HT
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akademiya Ontustik
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.0
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.00
1.00
1.20
1.13
0.80
0.87
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.33
0.50
1.50
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (23)
1.04
0.91
1.27
1.09
0.83
0.75
vs Weaker (4)
1.00
1.25
1.50
1.00
0.50
1.50
Clean sheet %
40% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Turan Turkistan) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Turan Turkistan
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.6
Avg scored
1.4
Avg conceded
1.2
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
1.23
0.60
1.40
0.60
1.07
vs Stronger (8)
0.38
2.00
0.50
2.50
0.25
1.50
vs Similar (21)
0.62
0.95
0.50
1.00
0.73
0.91
vs Weaker (1)
2.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (+2pp vs league)
This opponent (Akademiya Ontustik) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
No second-half model prices for this fixture yet - the form above is the record.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akademiya Ontustik over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 0.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 1.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Turan Turkistan over/under 2.5 2H
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Under 7.5
98.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 3.5 goals
96.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 6.5
95.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
89.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home under 2.5 goals
87.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away over 0.5 goals
86.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 3.5 goals
85.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 1.5
84.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Draw or Away
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +1 handicap
78.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 4.5
77.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
76.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home over 0.5 goals
70.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
Kazakhstan: 1. Division 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Kazakhstan: 1. Division stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
Shakhter Karagandy
Sport Academy Kairat
Taraz
Kaspij Aktau 2
Ekibastuz
Astana II
Jaiyq
Arys
Khan Tengri
Aktobe Jas
Yelimay Semey 2
Tobol 2