Akhmat’s defensive solidity is the story here, with an average of 0.88 goals conceded at home against similarly strong opposition, while Fakel’s away form shows a tighter 0.7 conceded per game. The model favours a home win, with a 55% chance, a 30% draw, and a 14% away win. The expected total is 1.9 goals, centring on a 2-goal match. The single most likely score is 1-0 for Akhmat, a 18.6% probability. Akhmat’s home scoring average of 1.38 and Fakel’s away scoring average of 1.5 set the tone for a low-scoring affair. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.9%), Away under 3.5 goals (99.7%), Under 6.5 (99.6%), Under 11.5 corners (99.5%), Under 10.5 corners (98.7%), Under 5.5 (98.6%), Away under 2.5 goals (98.0%) and Under 9.5 corners (96.9%). Akhmat’s recent two-game winning run and Fakel’s fresh draw suggest a tight, defensively focused match.
Results analysis
Akhmat’s two-game winning run carried into the Cup clash, while Fakel had only a single draw to show for their last five outings. The model’s favourite, a home win at 55 percent, proved correct as Akhmat edged Fakel 2-1. The predicted 2-goal total materialised, with the most likely scoreline of 1-0 also in the mix. Every model selection hit: Under 7.5 goals at 99.9 percent, Away under 3.5 goals at 99.7 percent, Under 6.5 at 99.6 percent, Under 5.5 at 98.6 percent and Away under 2.5 goals at 98.0 percent all came true. The model’s accuracy was evident across the board.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akhmat win✓ Hit
55.2%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
30.3%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Fakel win✗ Miss
14.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akhmat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.8
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.10
1.33
1.23
1.00
1.00
1.59
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.57
1.00
1.20
0.89
1.78
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.12
1.38
0.88
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-9pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fakel
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.3
Avg scored
1.2
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.33
0.83
1.28
0.78
1.42
0.92
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.67
0.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Similar (27)
1.41
0.74
1.35
0.76
1.50
0.70
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+24pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 1.9 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
58.7%
Under 1.5
41.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
30.6%
Under 2.5
69.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
13.1%
Under 3.5
86.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
33.5%
No
66.5%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-0
18.6%
0-0
15.6%
2-0
13.4%
1-1
12.4%
2-1 ✓
7.7%
0-1
7.1%
3-0
6.1%
3-1
3.5%
Akhmat goals ↓
Fakel goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
16%
7.1%
2.4%
0.5%
0.1%
1
19%
12%
3.2%
0.6%
0.1%
2
13%
7.7%
2.2%
0.4%
0.1%
3
6.1%
3.5%
1.0%
0.2%
0.0%
4
2.1%
1.2%
0.3%
0.1%
0.0%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akhmat goals (down), columns = Fakel goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.55
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Irkutsk
2.25
Broke Boys
2.25
Cherepovets
2.25
Kristall MEZ
2.25
Veles
2.25
Spartak Moscow
2.08
Luki-Energiya
2.00
KDV
2.00
Dinamo Vologda
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Arsenal Tula
2.00
Enisey
2.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.00
FC Krasnodar
1.92
CSKA Moscow
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.70
Lokomotiv
1.70
Chelyabinsk
1.67
Dynamo
1.58
Zenit Penza
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
FK Spartak Tambov
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
Chayka
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ilpar
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
KAMAZ
1.50
Ural
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Fakel
1.33
FC Rostov
1.25
Krylia Sovetov
1.10
FC 10
1.04
Metallurg Asha
1.04
Chita
1.04
Izberbash
1.04
Iskra Smolensk
1.04
Bomik
1.04
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.04
FC Tosno
1.04
SKA Rostov
1.04
Izhevsk
1.04
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.04
Anzhi
1.04
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Dinamo Bryansk
1.00
Torpedo Miass
1.00
Tver
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Spartak Kostroma
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.00
Baltika
0.88
Rubin
0.86
FC Orenburg
0.78
FK Neftekhimik
0.75
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.67
Akhmat
0.67
Akron
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.50
Mashuk-KMV
0.50
Nizhny Novgorod
0.50
FC Sochi
0.33
Chertanovo Moscow
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Murom
0.00
Kvant
0.00
Shumbrat
0.00
Kristall
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Orel
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Rotor Volgograd
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Akhmat is 0.67 points worse than Fakel in terms of average points per game (0.67 vs 1.33).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Irkutsk
3.75
Zvezda St. Petersburg
2.50
Cherepovets
2.50
Tyumen
2.50
Shinnik Yaroslavl
2.50
Luki-Energiya
2.33
KDV
2.33
Zenit
2.09
FC Krasnodar
2.08
Murom
2.00
Orel
2.00
Astrakhan
2.00
Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Kristall MEZ
2.00
Nosta
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Veles
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
1.85
Broke Boys
1.75
Torpedo Moskva
1.75
Lokomotiv
1.70
Arsenal Tula
1.60
Dynamo
1.58
CSKA Moscow
1.58
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Enisey
1.50
Znamya Noginsk
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Akhmat
1.33
Volgar Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
FC Sochi
1.33
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.30
FC 10
1.10
Metallurg Asha
1.10
Chita
1.10
Izberbash
1.10
Iskra Smolensk
1.10
Bomik
1.10
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.10
FC Tosno
1.10
SKA Rostov
1.10
Izhevsk
1.10
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.10
Anzhi
1.10
Dinamo Stavropol
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Avangard Kursk
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Shumbrat
1.00
Kristall
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Chayka
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Akron
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Baltika
1.00
FK Sokol Saratov
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Ural
1.00
FC Orenburg
0.78
Rubin
0.71
Temp Barnaul
0.67
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.33
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Pobeda
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
Mashuk-KMV
0.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.00
Novosibirsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Torpedo Vladimir
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
Leningradets
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Ryazan
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Akhmat and Fakel are level in goals scored per game (both 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Torpedo Miass
0.00
Tver
0.00
Irtysh Omsk
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Rodina Moskva
0.00
Spartak Kostroma
0.00
Zenit Penza
0.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
0.50
Dinamo Vologda
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FK Sokol Saratov
0.50
KAMAZ
0.50
Volgar Astrakhan
0.67
Tekstilshchik
0.67
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Zenit
0.73
Irkutsk
0.75
FC Krasnodar
0.77
Arsenal Tula
0.80
Dynamo
0.92
KDV
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Temp Barnaul
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
FK Spartak Tambov
1.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.00
Dinamo Kirov
1.00
Amkar
1.00
Salyut-Belgorod
1.00
Tyumen
1.00
Torpedo Vladimir
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Enisey
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.00
Ural
1.00
Znamya Noginsk
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.08
Broke Boys
1.25
CSKA Moscow
1.25
Baltika
1.25
Veles
1.25
Rubin
1.29
Lokomotiv
1.30
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.33
Astrakhan
1.33
Fakel
1.33
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.50
Mashuk-KMV
1.50
FC Rostov
1.50
Chayka
1.50
Kristall MEZ
1.50
FK Neftekhimik
1.50
FC 10
1.50
Metallurg Asha
1.50
Chita
1.50
Izberbash
1.50
Iskra Smolensk
1.50
Bomik
1.50
Pobeda Nizhniy Novgorod
1.50
FC Tosno
1.50
SKA Rostov
1.50
Izhevsk
1.50
Kirovets Voskhozhdenie
1.50
Anzhi
1.50
Luki-Energiya
1.67
Akhmat
1.67
Cherepovets
1.75
Krylia Sovetov
1.90
Chertanovo Moscow
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Rotor Volgograd
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.00
Akron
2.17
Nizhny Novgorod
2.17
Leningradets
2.50
FC Orenburg
2.56
Murom
3.00
Kvant
3.00
Shumbrat
3.00
Kristall
3.00
Orel
3.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
3.00
Nosta
3.00
Ilpar
3.00
Ska-khabarovsk
3.00
FC Sochi
3.00
Ryazan
3.00
Anri Vladivostok
4.00
Akhmat is 0.33 goals worse than Fakel in terms of goals conceded per game (1.67 vs 1.33).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
CSKA Moscow
64%
Baltika
36%
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Akhmat
For 4.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.9 · Against 1.5 · Total 3.4
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Fakel
For 6.0 · Against 3.5 · Total 9.5
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 2.2 · Total 3.8
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 12.2 · Total 24.5
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Akhmat
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.2
9.0
4.3
4.2
4.3
28.5
28.0
28.9
vs Stronger (22)
9.7
10.6
8.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
28.2
27.1
29.0
vs Similar (28)
9.5
9.8
9.2
4.8
4.5
4.9
28.7
28.6
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
58%
36%
62%
64%
61%
88%
89%
86%
% under line
54%
42%
64%
38%
36%
39%
12%
11%
14%
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fakel
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.8
9.8
9.8
3.0
3.0
3.1
28.4
30.4
25.6
vs Stronger (7)
10.7
12.0
9.3
4.9
4.5
5.3
27.5
31.7
23.3
vs Similar (43)
9.1
8.4
10.3
2.7
2.7
2.8
29.3
29.5
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
64%
50%
83%
44%
37%
52%
92%
100%
80%
% under line
36%
50%
17%
56%
63%
48%
8%
0%
20%
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Tekstilshchik
12.0
Rodina Moskva
11.8
Arsenal Tula
11.0
Rotor Volgograd
11.0
Chelyabinsk
11.0
Spartak Kostroma
10.5
Nizhny Novgorod
10.5
CSKA Moscow
10.4
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.1
Zenit
9.7
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Akhmat
9.5
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
FC Sochi
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Veles
9.0
Ural
9.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
FC UFA
8.7
Rubin
8.6
Torpedo Moskva
8.5
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.5
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
FK Neftekhimik
7.5
Tyumen
7.4
Ska-khabarovsk
7.2
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
Enisey
5.5
KDV
4.0
Novosibirsk
4.0
Dinamo Bryansk
3.0
Znamya Noginsk
3.0
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Broke Boys
7.0
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
Tekstilshchik
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
CSKA Moscow
4.8
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.5
Nizhny Novgorod
4.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
4.5
Akhmat
4.5
KAMAZ
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Fakel
4.4
FC Sochi
4.4
Chelyabinsk
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Veles
4.2
Spartak Kostroma
4.0
Zenit
4.0
Volgar Astrakhan
4.0
FK Sokol Saratov
4.0
Chayka
3.9
Arsenal Tula
3.9
Akron
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.8
Ural
3.8
Enisey
3.6
Ska-khabarovsk
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Leningradets
3.4
Tyumen
3.3
FK Neftekhimik
3.1
Rodina Moskva
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.1
KDV
3.0
Novosibirsk
3.0
Irkutsk
3.0
Mashuk-KMV
1.0
Luki-Energiya
1.0
Dinamo Bryansk
0.0
Znamya Noginsk
0.0
Chertanovo Moscow
0.0
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
0.0
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Torpedo Moskva
32.0
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.6
FC Krasnodar
29.2
Akhmat
29.0
FC Rostov
28.9
Rubin
28.8
Nizhny Novgorod
28.6
Rotor Volgograd
28.5
FC Orenburg
28.3
Fakel
27.7
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Akron
27.4
Lokomotiv
27.4
Zenit
27.2
FC Sochi
27.1
Ural
26.8
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Enisey
23.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
3.1%
Under 9.5
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
54.7%
Under 3.5
45.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
74.9%
Under 21.5
25.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akhmat or Draw✓ Hit
85.5%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
14%
covers Akhmat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akhmat or Fakel✓ Hit
69.7%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
14%
covers Akhmat + Fakel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Fakel✗ Miss
44.8%
Avg Implied -
55%
30%
14%
covers Draw + Fakel
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akhmat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
74.4%
Under
25.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
39.5%
Under
60.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
15.8%
Under
84.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
5.0%
Under
95.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
43.6%
Under
56.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
11.3%
Under
88.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
0.3%
Under
99.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akhmat, so a minus line means Akhmat give that many goals of a start and Fakel receive them. At -1, Akhmat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akhmat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akhmat)Actual: Fakel
Akhmat -2
10.6%
Draw -2
17.3%
Fakel +2
72.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Akhmat)Actual: Draw
Akhmat -1
27.9%
Draw -1
27.3%
Fakel +1
44.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +1
85.5%
Draw +1
10.8%
Fakel -1
3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +2
96.3%
Draw +2
3.0%
Fakel -2
0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akhmat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.1
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.47
0.70
0.31
0.46
0.59
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.43
1.07
0.40
0.60
0.44
1.33
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.38
0.25
0.38
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fakel
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.7
Avg scored
0.2
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.57
0.47
0.50
0.39
0.67
0.58
vs Stronger (3)
0.00
0.67
0.00
0.00
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.63
0.44
0.53
0.41
0.80
0.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
63% (+34pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akhmat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.7
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.63
0.63
0.92
0.54
0.41
0.71
vs Stronger (14)
0.50
0.50
0.60
0.60
0.44
0.44
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
1.12
0.50
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+14pp vs league)
This opponent (Fakel) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Fakel
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.6
Avg scored
1.0
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.77
0.37
0.78
0.39
0.75
0.33
vs Stronger (3)
0.67
1.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
1.00
vs Similar (27)
0.78
0.30
0.82
0.35
0.70
0.20
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fakel over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 10.5 corners
98.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 9.5 corners
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home +2 handicap
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
95.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
95.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 8.5 corners
93.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away under 1.5 goals
88.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
86.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
86.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Draw
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
85.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
84.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5 cards
80.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
74.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
74.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home over 0.5 goals
74.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Akhmat
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Egas Cacintura50%
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Erald Maksuti20%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Manuel Keliano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Júlio Romão20%
Erald Maksuti20%
Miroslav Bogosavac17%
Klisman Cake17%
Ousmane N’Dong17%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Egas Cacintura0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Egas Cacintura25%
Arsen Adamov17%
Kirill Shchetinin17%
Georgiy Melkadze0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ismael Silva33%
Egas Cacintura25%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Georgiy Melkadze17%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Fakel
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Maksim Turishchev25%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Alexey Sutormin20%
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Butta Magomedov17%
Albert Gabaraev17%
Axel Gnapi17%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Belajdi Pusi20%
Nikolay Giorgobiani17%
Darko Todorović0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Vyacheslav Yakimov0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Vyacheslav Yakimov17%
Darko Todorović0%
Belajdi Pusi0%
Igor Yurganov0%
Ilnur Alshin0%
Ravil Netfullin0%
Alexey Sutormin0%
Yuriy Zhuravlev0%
Nikolay Giorgobiani0%
Butta Magomedov0%
Anton Kovalev0%
Daniil Frolkin0%
Maksim Turishchev0%
Albert Gabaraev0%
Abdula Bagamaev0%
Matvey Bardachev0%
Axel Gnapi0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Akhmat's squad is €16m more valuable than Fakel's (€30m vs €14m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Akhmat's attack is €12m more valuable than Fakel's (€17m vs €5m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Akhmat's midfield is €3m more valuable than Fakel's (€4m vs €2m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Akhmat's defence is €2m more valuable than Fakel's (€9m vs €7m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron