Akhmat and FC Rostov face off in a closely contested match, with both teams coming off a draw in their previous encounters. Akhmat drew 0-0 against Fakel, while FC Rostov drew 0-0 against CSKA Moscow.
The model predicts a home win for Akhmat, with a 34% chance of winning, a 31% chance of a draw, and a 34% chance of an FC Rostov win. The expected total number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total being 2 goals. The single most likely score is 1-1, with a probability of 14.6%.
Akhmat's home form is strong, averaging 1.86 goals scored and 0.86 goals conceded against similar opponents. FC Rostov's away form is less impressive, averaging 1.25 goals scored and 1.0 goals conceded against similar opponents.
The model's selections include Over 21.5 fouls, with a 91.8% probability, and Under 3.5, with a 79.9% probability and a 4% edge. The model also suggests a home win with a 34% probability, a draw with a 31% probability, and an away win with a 34% probability.
Results analysis
Akhmat’s two-game winning run continued as they secured a 4-1 victory over FC Rostov, confirming the model’s prediction of a home win. The pre-match favourite, Home win, had a 34 % probability and the model’s call proved correct. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.7 %, Under 6.5 hit at 99.1 %, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.4 %, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.2 %, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 97.0 %, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.0 %, and Under 5.5 hit at 97.0 %. The only miss was Home under 3.5 goals at 97.0 %. The match finished with the favoured result and most selections came in.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akhmat win✓ Hit
34.5%
Avg Implied 38.3% · @ 2.47
Edge
-3.9%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
2.52
Dafabet
2.50
Superbet
2.47
Pinnacle
2.46
Marathonbet
2.45
Draw✗ Miss
31.0%
Avg Implied 30.6% · @ 3.10
Edge
+0.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.23
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.15
Dafabet
3.10
Superbet
3.05
FC Rostov win✗ Miss
34.5%
Avg Implied 31.1% · @ 3.05
Edge
+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.24
Pinnacle
3.19
Marathonbet
3.16
Dafabet
3.00
Superbet
2.95
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akhmat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.9
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.0
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.13
1.30
1.29
1.00
1.00
1.56
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.54
1.00
1.20
0.88
1.75
vs Similar (17)
1.29
1.12
1.44
0.89
1.12
1.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.5
Avg scored
1.6
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.00
0.86
1.07
1.50
0.94
vs Stronger (6)
0.67
1.00
0.50
1.00
0.75
1.00
vs Similar (18)
1.22
1.06
0.70
1.10
1.88
1.00
vs Weaker (6)
1.67
0.83
2.00
1.00
1.50
0.75
Clean sheet %
23% (-4pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.3 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (28%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
68.3%
@ 1.38+0.7%
Under 1.5
31.7%
@ 2.87-0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.41
Superbet
1.38
1xBet
1.36
Marathonbet
1.36
Under
Pinnacle
2.99
Superbet
2.87
Marathonbet
2.80
1xBet
2.80
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
40.4%
@ 2.28-1.5%
Under 2.5
59.6%
@ 1.65+1.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
2.35
Pinnacle
2.31
Marathonbet
2.27
SBO
2.26
Superbet
2.22
Under
1xBet
1.70
Pinnacle
1.65
Marathonbet
1.64
SBO
1.63
Superbet
1.62
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
20.1%
@ 4.13-2.5%
Under 3.5
79.9%
@ 1.20+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
4.33
1xBet
4.10
Marathonbet
4.10
Superbet
4.00
Under
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
48.0%
@ 1.89-1.1%
No
52.0%
@ 1.82+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Superbet
1.88
No
1xBet
1.83
Superbet
1.82
Marathonbet
1.81
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
14.6%@ 5.52+6.7%
0-0
11.3%@ 7.51+5.5%
1-0
10.2%@ 6.51+3.5%
0-1
10.2%@ 7.61+4.4%
2-1
7.6%@ 9.35+2.9%
1-2
7.6%@ 11.03+3.7%
2-0
6.6%@ 10.53+2.5%
0-2
6.6%@ 14.40+3.6%
Akhmat goals ↓
FC Rostov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
11%
10%
6.6%
2.5%
0.7%
1
10%
15%
7.6%
2.9%
0.8%
2
6.6%
7.6%
4.4%
1.7%
0.5%
3
2.5%
2.9%
1.7%
0.6%
0.2%
4
0.7%
0.8%
0.5%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akhmat goals (down), columns = FC Rostov goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Akhmat is 0.17 points better than FC Rostov in terms of average points per game (1.00 vs 0.83).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Akhmat is 0.33 goals better than FC Rostov in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.17).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Akhmat is 0.33 goals better than FC Rostov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Akhmat is 2.0 percentage points worse than FC Rostov in terms of average possession (47% vs 49%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Akhmat
For 4.1 · Against 5.2 · Total 9.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.6 · Against 1.3 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.9 · Against 14.7 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
FC Rostov
For 4.9 · Against 3.9 · Total 8.8
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.4 · Against 1.6 · Total 4.0
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 13.5 · Total 27.7
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Akhmat
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.2
9.0
4.2
4.1
4.3
28.5
28.0
28.9
vs Stronger (21)
9.7
10.6
8.9
3.7
3.8
3.6
28.2
27.1
29.0
vs Similar (29)
9.5
9.8
9.2
4.6
4.3
4.9
28.7
28.6
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
46%
58%
36%
60%
61%
59%
88%
89%
86%
% under line
54%
42%
64%
40%
39%
41%
12%
11%
14%
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
8.4
8.5
8.3
4.7
5.0
4.4
28.8
29.1
28.5
vs Stronger (14)
8.8
9.0
8.6
5.2
4.6
5.9
26.5
29.2
23.8
vs Similar (27)
7.2
7.9
6.6
4.3
5.3
3.4
29.8
29.0
30.5
vs Weaker (9)
11.7
10.0
12.5
4.8
4.7
4.8
29.0
29.0
29.0
% over line
32%
41%
25%
64%
70%
59%
89%
100%
80%
% under line
68%
59%
75%
36%
30%
41%
11%
0%
20%
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
11.8
CSKA Moscow
10.5
FC Orenburg
10.2
Dynamo
10.0
Zenit
9.7
Akhmat
9.4
Krylia Sovetov
9.4
Akron
9.2
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.2
Lokomotiv
9.2
Dinamo Makhachkala
8.9
Rubin
8.6
FC Rostov
8.4
FC Krasnodar
8.4
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Baltika
5.1
FC Krasnodar
5.0
FC Rostov
4.9
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.5
Akhmat
4.4
Dynamo
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.4
Fakel
4.2
Zenit
4.0
Akron
3.9
Rodina Moskva
3.2
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.3
Spartak Moscow
29.9
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.5
FC Krasnodar
29.1
Akhmat
28.8
Rubin
28.8
FC Rostov
28.7
FC Orenburg
28.2
Fakel
27.8
Dynamo
27.6
Rodina Moskva
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.4
Akron
27.3
Zenit
27.2
CSKA Moscow
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
42.7%
@ 2.00-3.6%
Under 9.5
57.3%
@ 1.73+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.03
Superbet
2.02
Marathonbet
1.99
1xBet
1.98
Under
Pinnacle
1.75
Marathonbet
1.73
1xBet
1.73
Superbet
1.71
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
58.6%
@ 1.65+3.0%
Under 3.5
41.4%
@ 2.07-3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.65
Under
Superbet
2.07
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
91.5%
Under 21.5
8.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akhmat or Draw✓ Hit
65.5%
Avg Implied 69.2% · @ 1.37
Edge
-3.7%
34%
31%
34%
covers Akhmat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.39
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
SBO
1.32
Akhmat or FC Rostov✓ Hit
69.0%
Avg Implied 69.8% · @ 1.36
Edge
-0.8%
34%
31%
34%
covers Akhmat + FC Rostov
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.40
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.35
SBO
1.29
Draw or FC Rostov✗ Miss
65.5%
Avg Implied 61.0% · @ 1.55
Edge
+4.5%
34%
31%
34%
covers Draw + FC Rostov
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
1.59
1xBet
1.59
SBO
1.53
Superbet
1.50
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akhmat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
@ 1.32-2.6%
Under
31.6%
@ 3.22+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.33
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.30
Under
Pinnacle
3.39
Marathonbet
3.20
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Akhmat over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
31.9%
@ 2.59-4.6%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.49+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.71
Superbet
2.60
Marathonbet
2.57
1xBet
2.47
Under
1xBet
1.52
Pinnacle
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.46
Akhmat over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
11.0%
@ 6.23-3.9%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.09+3.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
6.30
1xBet
6.30
Superbet
6.10
Under
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
Akhmat over/under 3.5Actual: Over
Over
3.0%
@ 16.00-3.0%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+3.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
16.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
FC Rostov over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
68.3%
@ 1.42+2.4%
Under
31.7%
@ 2.75-2.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.45
1xBet
1.42
Marathonbet
1.41
Superbet
1.41
Under
Pinnacle
2.87
Superbet
2.77
Marathonbet
2.69
1xBet
2.69
FC Rostov over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
31.9%
@ 3.05+1.1%
Under
68.1%
@ 1.36-1.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.24
Marathonbet
3.14
Superbet
2.92
1xBet
2.90
Under
1xBet
1.39
Superbet
1.37
Marathonbet
1.34
Pinnacle
1.34
FC Rostov over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
11.0%
@ 8.00-0.6%
Under
89.0%
@ 1.05+0.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
8.60
1xBet
8.20
Superbet
7.20
Under
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
FC Rostov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
3.0%
@ 20.00-1.8%
Under
97.0%
@ 1.01+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
20.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akhmat, so a minus line means Akhmat give that many goals of a start and FC Rostov receive them. At -1, Akhmat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akhmat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat -2
4.7%
@ 8.80-5.0%
Draw -2
10.1%
@ 5.62-5.0%
FC Rostov +2
85.2%
@ 1.13+10.0%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
11.00
Marathonbet
6.60
Draw
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
4.55
Away
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
Handicap -1 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat -1
14.8%
@ 4.92-3.6%
Draw -1
19.7%
@ 3.91-3.5%
FC Rostov +1
65.5%
@ 1.55+7.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
4.95
Superbet
4.90
Draw
Marathonbet
3.92
Superbet
3.90
Away
Marathonbet
1.59
Superbet
1.51
Handicap +1 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +1
65.5%
@ 1.39-0.5%
Draw +1
19.7%
@ 4.60-0.2%
FC Rostov -1
14.8%
@ 6.50+0.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Marathonbet
1.39
Superbet
1.38
Draw
Marathonbet
4.75
Superbet
4.45
Away
Marathonbet
7.10
Superbet
5.90
Handicap +2 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +2
85.2%
Draw +2
10.1%
FC Rostov -2
4.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akhmat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.3
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.67
0.43
0.43
0.62
0.88
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.35
0.44
0.33
0.75
0.38
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.47
0.43
0.64
0.88
0.31
vs Stronger (6)
0.50
0.50
0.50
1.00
0.50
0.25
vs Similar (18)
0.67
0.56
0.30
0.60
1.12
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.17
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.00
Clean sheet %
60% (+33pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
66.6%
@ 1.49+3.6%
Under 0.5
33.4%
@ 2.54-3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.51
Marathonbet
1.51
Superbet
1.48
Pinnacle
1.47
Under
Pinnacle
2.67
Superbet
2.55
Marathonbet
2.48
1xBet
2.48
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
31.3%
@ 3.29+2.7%
Under 1.5
68.7%
@ 1.32-2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.39
1xBet
3.32
Marathonbet
3.32
Superbet
3.15
Under
Superbet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.32
Marathonbet
1.31
1xBet
1.31
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
10.9%
@ 8.83+0.4%
Under 2.5
89.1%
@ 1.03-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.20
Marathonbet
9.20
Superbet
8.10
Under
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
43.1%
@ 2.18+0.3%
Under
56.9%
@ 1.63-0.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.21
1xBet
2.17
Marathonbet
2.17
Superbet
2.17
Under
Pinnacle
1.68
Superbet
1.62
1xBet
1.61
Marathonbet
1.61
Akhmat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.5%
@ 7.57-1.8%
Under
89.5%
@ 1.06+1.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.90
1xBet
7.90
Superbet
6.90
Under
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
Akhmat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.8%
@ 24.00-98.2%
Under
98.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
24.00
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
41.4%
@ 2.44+3.1%
Under
58.6%
@ 1.51-3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.51
Marathonbet
2.44
1xBet
2.44
Superbet
2.35
Under
Pinnacle
1.54
Superbet
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.49
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
10.0%
@ 9.30-0.0%
Under
90.0%
@ 1.03+0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
10.00
Marathonbet
10.00
Superbet
7.90
Under
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.6%
@ 31.00-98.4%
Under
98.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
31.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akhmat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.0
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.60
0.63
0.86
0.57
0.38
0.69
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.60
0.60
0.38
0.38
vs Similar (17)
0.71
0.76
1.00
0.56
0.38
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (FC Rostov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
FC Rostov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.4
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.53
0.43
0.43
0.62
0.62
vs Stronger (6)
0.17
0.50
0.00
0.00
0.25
0.75
vs Similar (18)
0.56
0.50
0.40
0.50
0.75
0.50
vs Weaker (6)
0.83
0.67
1.00
0.50
0.75
0.75
Clean sheet %
50% (+23pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
75.5%
Under 0.5
24.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
39.1%
Under 1.5
60.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
15.2%
Under 2.5
84.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
50.8%
Under
49.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Over
Over
16.1%
Under
83.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Over
Over
3.1%
Under
96.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
48.5%
Under
51.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
14.2%
Under
85.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
FC Rostov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
3.0%
Under
97.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
99.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
98.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
97.0%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.0%
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
97.0%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 2H goals
96.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 19.5 fouls
96.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
91.6%
1.03
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.01
1xBet
1.01
-
-
+2.7%
✗ Miss
Over 21.5 fouls
91.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 HT goals
90.0%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 HT goals
89.5%
1.06
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.05
-
-
+1.8%
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.1%
1.03
Superbet
1.06
Marathonbet
1.02
1xBet
1.02
-
-
-0.4%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.05
Superbet
1.07
1xBet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.04
-
-
+0.6%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
89.0%
1.09
Superbet
1.10
1xBet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.08
-
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
85.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
85.2%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
85.2%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.12
-
-
-
+10.0%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
84.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 2H goals
83.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Over 23.5 fouls
83.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
79.9%
1.20
Pinnacle
1.23
Superbet
1.22
1xBet
1.18
Marathonbet
1.18
-
+2.5%
✗ Miss
Under 11.5 corners
79.2%
1.24
Superbet
1.29
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.21
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
77.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
76.9%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
75.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 25.5 fouls
71.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Akhmat
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Egas Cacintura50%
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Erald Maksuti20%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Manuel Keliano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Júlio Romão20%
Erald Maksuti20%
Miroslav Bogosavac17%
Klisman Cake17%
Ousmane N’Dong17%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Egas Cacintura0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Egas Cacintura25%
Arsen Adamov17%
Kirill Shchetinin17%
Georgiy Melkadze0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ismael Silva33%
Egas Cacintura25%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Georgiy Melkadze17%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
FC Rostov
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Timur Suleymanov33%
Daniil Shantaliy33%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Viktor Melekhin17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Olakunle Olusegun0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Konstantin Kuchaev50%
Oumar Sako50%
Viktor Melekhin50%
Ygor Nogueira33%
Aleksey Mironov17%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Ivan Komarov17%
Andrey Langovich17%
Danila Prokhin0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Konstantin Kuchaev33%
Andrey Langovich33%
Olakunle Olusegun17%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Timur Suleymanov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Maksim Mukhin0%
Ronaldo0%
Ivan Komarov0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Timur Suleymanov33%
Olakunle Olusegun33%
Ivan Komarov33%
Maksim Mukhin25%
Aleksey Mironov0%
Konstantin Kuchaev0%
Danila Prokhin0%
Ygor Nogueira0%
Egor Golenkov0%
Rustam Yatimov0%
Oumar Sako0%
Ronaldo0%
Andrey Langovich0%
Yaroslav Mikhailov0%
Viktor Melekhin0%
Daniil Shantaliy0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Akhmat's squad is €2m less valuable than FC Rostov's (€30m vs €32m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Akhmat's attack is €3m more valuable than FC Rostov's (€17m vs €14m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Akhmat and FC Rostov have a similar midfield value (both €4m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Akhmat's defence is €5m less valuable than FC Rostov's (€9m vs €13m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
Krylia Sovetov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel