Akhmat are tipped to win this home fixture, with a 51% chance of triumph, a 28% draw probability and a 22% chance for Krylia Sovetov to come away with the points. The model predicts an average of 2.5 goals, most likely a 2-goal total, and the single most probable scoreline is 1-1, with a 13.1% chance. Akhmat’s home form shows they score 1.7 goals per game and concede 0.9 against teams of similar strength, while Krylia Sovetov, playing away, manage 0.88 goals and allow 1.5 against comparable opposition. The model’s selections include Under 7.5 (99.5%), Away under 2.5 HT goals (98.9%), Under 6.5 (98.4%), Away under 3.5 goals (98.3%), Away under 2.5 2H goals (97.7%), Home under 2.5 HT goals (97.2%), Over 19.5 fouls (95.8%) and Under 5.5 (95.5%). Akhmat’s recent two-game winning streak and a 4-1 victory over FC Rostov set a positive tone, while Krylia Sovetov arrive after a win, having beaten Akron 3-0. The overall shape suggests a tightly contested match with both sides likely to score, but the home side’s edge and the high probability of a 1-1 draw point to a balanced encounter.
Results analysis
The 3-3 draw stunned everyone, as the pre-match favourite, a home win, fell short. Akhmat entered the game on a shaky run of DWWLD, while Krylia Sovetov were also coming off a draw, their last five being DWDLL. The model had given a 51% chance to a home win, but the result was a draw, so the model’s call was wrong. Every suggested pick was settled: Under 7.5 hit at 99.5%, Away under 2.5 HT goals hit at 98.8%, Under 6.5 hit at 98.4%, Away under 3.5 goals hit at 98.3%, Away under 2.5 2H goals hit at 97.7%, Home under 2.5 HT goals hit at 97.3%, Over 19.5 fouls hit at 95.8%, and Under 5.5 missed at 95.5%. The match finished 3-3, a true upset for the model’s prediction.
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🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akhmat win✗ Miss
50.9%
Avg Implied 50.8% · @ 1.86
Edge
+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.92
1xBet
1.87
Dafabet
1.87
SBO
1.87
Pinnacle
1.83
Draw✓ Hit
27.5%
Avg Implied 26.4% · @ 3.59
Edge
+1.1%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
3.84
Pinnacle
3.80
Marathonbet
3.75
Dafabet
3.60
Superbet
3.45
Krylia Sovetov win✗ Miss
21.6%
Avg Implied 22.8% · @ 4.14
Edge
-1.3%
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
4.56
Marathonbet
4.45
Pinnacle
4.42
Dafabet
4.20
Superbet
3.80
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akhmat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
0.9
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.20
1.30
1.47
1.00
0.93
1.60
vs Stronger (13)
0.92
1.54
1.00
1.20
0.88
1.75
vs Similar (17)
1.41
1.12
1.70
0.90
1.00
1.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
20% (-7pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krylia Sovetov
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.4
Avg scored
1.3
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.07
1.60
1.53
1.27
0.60
1.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.86
1.93
1.43
1.43
0.29
2.43
vs Similar (16)
1.25
1.31
1.62
1.12
0.88
1.50
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
27% (-0pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.6 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
73.5%
@ 1.26-0.1%
Under 1.5
26.5%
@ 3.52+0.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
Under
Pinnacle
3.69
Superbet
3.50
Marathonbet
3.44
1xBet
3.44
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
46.9%
@ 1.92-3.1%
Under 2.5
53.1%
@ 1.92+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.96
Pinnacle
1.93
SBO
1.93
Marathonbet
1.90
Superbet
1.87
Under
1xBet
1.98
Pinnacle
1.95
Marathonbet
1.91
SBO
1.89
Superbet
1.87
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
25.3%
@ 3.16-4.2%
Under 3.5
74.7%
@ 1.32+4.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.29
Marathonbet
3.12
1xBet
3.12
Superbet
3.10
Under
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.3%
@ 1.77-2.2%
No
49.7%
@ 1.95+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
1xBet
1.78
Marathonbet
1.78
Superbet
1.74
No
Superbet
1.97
1xBet
1.95
Marathonbet
1.93
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.1%@ 6.29+6.1%
1-0
11.2%@ 6.70+4.7%
2-0
9.9%@ 8.39+4.6%
2-1
9.5%@ 7.84+3.9%
0-0
9.0%@ 11.21+5.1%
0-1
6.3%@ 11.03+2.3%
1-2
5.7%@ 13.08+2.4%
3-0
5.2%@ 15.27+2.4%
Akhmat goals ↓
Krylia Sovetov goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.0%
6.3%
3.6%
1.1%
0.3%
1
11%
13%
5.7%
1.8%
0.4%
2
9.9%
9.5%
4.5%
1.5%
0.3%
3
5.2%
5.0%
2.4%
0.8%
0.2%
4
2.1%
2.0%
1.0%
0.3%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akhmat goals (down), columns = Krylia Sovetov goals (across).
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💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
FC Krasnodar
3.00
Spartak Moscow
2.17
CSKA Moscow
2.00
Zenit
2.00
Dynamo
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.50
Rubin
1.50
FC Orenburg
1.17
Krylia Sovetov
1.00
Akhmat
1.00
FC Rostov
0.83
Rodina Moskva
0.67
Akron
0.50
Lokomotiv
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Akhmat and Krylia Sovetov are level in average points per game (both 1.00).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Zenit
2.17
Spartak Moscow
1.83
FC Krasnodar
1.83
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
Baltika
1.67
CSKA Moscow
1.50
Akhmat
1.50
Rubin
1.50
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Dynamo
1.33
Rodina Moskva
1.33
FC Rostov
1.17
Akron
1.00
Lokomotiv
0.83
FC Orenburg
0.83
Fakel
0.50
Akhmat is 0.17 goals better than Krylia Sovetov in terms of goals scored per game (1.50 vs 1.33).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
FC Krasnodar
0.67
Zenit
0.67
Spartak Moscow
0.83
CSKA Moscow
1.00
Baltika
1.00
Fakel
1.17
Dynamo
1.17
FC Orenburg
1.17
Akhmat
1.33
Lokomotiv
1.33
Rubin
1.33
Krylia Sovetov
1.67
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.67
FC Rostov
1.67
Akron
2.50
Rodina Moskva
2.83
Akhmat is 0.33 goals better than Krylia Sovetov in terms of goals conceded per game (1.33 vs 1.67).
⏱️ Possession
Avg possession %
Dynamo
63%
Spartak Moscow
62%
Zenit
60%
CSKA Moscow
57%
FC Krasnodar
57%
Akron
54%
Lokomotiv
51%
FC Rostov
49%
Fakel
48%
Akhmat
47%
Rubin
47%
Krylia Sovetov
46%
Rodina Moskva
44%
Dinamo Makhachkala
40%
FC Orenburg
39%
Baltika
36%
Akhmat is 1.2 percentage points better than Krylia Sovetov in terms of average possession (47% vs 46%).
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Akhmat
For 4.2 · Against 4.1 · Total 8.3
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.5 · Against 1.4 · Total 2.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 13.4 · Against 15.2 · Total 28.6
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Krylia Sovetov
For 3.6 · Against 5.5 · Total 9.1
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 3.1 · Against 2.4 · Total 5.5
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 14.2 · Against 12.8 · Total 27.0
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Akhmat
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
9.9
9.0
4.2
4.0
4.3
28.3
28.1
28.5
vs Stronger (20)
9.6
10.6
8.8
3.6
3.8
3.5
27.7
27.1
28.2
vs Similar (30)
9.3
9.4
9.2
4.5
4.1
4.9
28.8
28.8
28.8
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
44%
55%
33%
58%
58%
58%
88%
90%
86%
% under line
56%
45%
67%
42%
42%
42%
12%
10%
14%
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krylia Sovetov
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.4
10.4
8.4
4.1
3.4
4.8
27.1
26.3
27.9
vs Stronger (22)
10.5
11.9
9.4
3.5
2.7
4.5
25.6
24.9
26.2
vs Similar (28)
8.6
9.5
7.8
4.6
4.2
4.9
28.1
27.2
29.0
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
% over line
45%
67%
25%
54%
44%
64%
89%
78%
100%
% under line
55%
33%
75%
46%
56%
36%
11%
22%
0%
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Rodina Moskva
10.8
CSKA Moscow
10.2
FC Orenburg
10.1
Dynamo
9.9
Zenit
9.7
Krylia Sovetov
9.5
Akhmat
9.4
Fakel
9.2
Spartak Moscow
9.1
Akron
9.1
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.0
Lokomotiv
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.5
Rubin
8.5
FC Rostov
8.3
Baltika
8.2
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Spartak Moscow
5.3
Baltika
4.9
FC Krasnodar
4.9
FC Rostov
4.8
Krylia Sovetov
4.6
Lokomotiv
4.6
Rubin
4.6
FC Orenburg
4.6
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Dynamo
4.4
Akhmat
4.4
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.3
Fakel
4.1
Zenit
4.1
Akron
4.0
Rodina Moskva
3.3
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Baltika
30.1
Spartak Moscow
30.0
Dinamo Makhachkala
29.0
FC Rostov
28.8
Akhmat
28.7
Rubin
28.6
FC Orenburg
28.6
FC Krasnodar
28.5
Fakel
28.0
Akron
27.5
Lokomotiv
27.5
Dynamo
27.4
Zenit
27.3
CSKA Moscow
26.7
Rodina Moskva
26.6
Krylia Sovetov
26.3
Corners O/U 9.5Actual: Under
Over 9.5
38.4%
@ 1.88-11.2%
Under 9.5
61.6%
@ 1.85+11.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.90
Superbet
1.90
1xBet
1.86
Marathonbet
1.85
Under
Pinnacle
1.90
Marathonbet
1.85
1xBet
1.84
Superbet
1.80
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Over
Over 3.5
63.5%
Under 3.5
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5Actual: Over
Over 21.5
90.5%
Under 21.5
9.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akhmat or Draw✓ Hit
78.4%
Avg Implied 77.5% · @ 1.22
Edge
+0.9%
51%
27%
22%
covers Akhmat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
SBO
1.17
Akhmat or Krylia Sovetov✗ Miss
72.5%
Avg Implied 74.1% · @ 1.27
Edge
-1.6%
51%
27%
22%
covers Akhmat + Krylia Sovetov
Best 5 market prices
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
SBO
1.21
Draw or Krylia Sovetov✓ Hit
49.1%
Avg Implied 48.4% · @ 1.96
Edge
+0.7%
51%
27%
22%
covers Draw + Krylia Sovetov
Best 5 market prices
Marathonbet
2.04
1xBet
2.04
SBO
1.92
Superbet
1.82
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🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akhmat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
79.6%
@ 1.19+0.4%
Under
20.4%
@ 4.53-0.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
Under
1xBet
4.70
Superbet
4.35
Akhmat over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
47.2%
@ 1.91-2.3%
Under
52.8%
@ 1.88+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.95
Pinnacle
1.92
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.89
Under
Pinnacle
1.93
Marathonbet
1.89
1xBet
1.88
Superbet
1.80
Akhmat over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
21.4%
@ 3.86-2.9%
Under
78.6%
@ 1.24+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.91
Superbet
3.90
1xBet
3.90
Marathonbet
3.72
Under
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
Akhmat over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
7.8%
@ 8.73-2.9%
Under
92.2%
@ 1.04+2.9%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
9.30
Superbet
8.70
Marathonbet
8.20
Under
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
Krylia Sovetov over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
61.7%
@ 1.49-1.4%
Under
38.3%
@ 2.54+1.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
1.53
1xBet
1.49
Marathonbet
1.48
Superbet
1.44
Under
Superbet
2.65
Pinnacle
2.60
Marathonbet
2.46
1xBet
2.46
Krylia Sovetov over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
24.9%
@ 3.32-3.4%
Under
75.1%
@ 1.31+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
3.53
Marathonbet
3.46
1xBet
3.20
Superbet
3.10
Under
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
Krylia Sovetov over/under 2.5Actual: Over
Over
7.3%
@ 8.90-3.1%
Under
92.7%
@ 1.04+3.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
9.50
1xBet
9.40
Superbet
7.80
Under
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
Krylia Sovetov over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
1.7%
@ 22.00-2.7%
Under
98.3%
@ 1.01+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
22.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akhmat, so a minus line means Akhmat give that many goals of a start and Krylia Sovetov receive them. At -1, Akhmat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akhmat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akhmat)Actual: Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat -2
11.5%
@ 6.47-2.4%
Draw -2
16.0%
@ 5.28-1.1%
Krylia Sovetov +2
72.5%
@ 1.30+3.4%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
6.70
Marathonbet
6.25
Draw
Marathonbet
5.30
Superbet
5.25
Away
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.28
Handicap -1 (Akhmat)Actual: Krylia Sovetov
Akhmat -1
27.5%
@ 3.23-0.5%
Draw -1
23.4%
@ 3.60-1.7%
Krylia Sovetov +1
49.1%
@ 1.94+2.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
3.35
Marathonbet
3.12
Draw
Superbet
3.65
Marathonbet
3.55
Away
Marathonbet
2.04
Superbet
1.83
Handicap +1 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +1
78.4%
@ 1.24+5.3%
Draw +1
13.7%
@ 5.60-2.5%
Krylia Sovetov -1
7.9%
@ 8.45-2.8%
Best 5 market prices
Home
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
Draw
Marathonbet
5.90
Superbet
5.30
Away
Marathonbet
9.30
Superbet
7.60
Handicap +2 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +2
92.1%
Draw +2
5.8%
Krylia Sovetov -2
2.1%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akhmat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.70
0.47
0.47
0.60
0.93
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
1.08
0.40
0.60
0.50
1.38
vs Similar (17)
0.59
0.41
0.50
0.40
0.71
0.43
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krylia Sovetov
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.8
Avg conceded
0.5
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.73
0.87
0.53
0.20
0.93
vs Stronger (14)
0.29
0.71
0.57
0.43
0.00
1.00
vs Similar (16)
0.75
0.75
1.12
0.62
0.38
0.88
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
53% (+26pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
67.0%
@ 1.38-1.3%
Under 0.5
33.0%
@ 2.97+1.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
1.38
Marathonbet
1.38
Superbet
1.37
Pinnacle
1.37
Under
Pinnacle
3.10
1xBet
2.93
Marathonbet
2.93
Superbet
2.92
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
30.4%
@ 2.77-3.5%
Under 1.5
69.6%
@ 1.43+3.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.85
Marathonbet
2.77
1xBet
2.77
Superbet
2.70
Under
Pinnacle
1.43
Superbet
1.43
Marathonbet
1.42
1xBet
1.42
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
10.4%
@ 6.73-3.3%
Under 2.5
89.6%
@ 1.07+3.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
1xBet
6.85
Marathonbet
6.85
Superbet
6.50
Under
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
49.6%
@ 1.78-2.7%
Under
50.4%
@ 1.96+2.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.80
Pinnacle
1.79
1xBet
1.77
Marathonbet
1.77
Under
Pinnacle
2.05
Marathonbet
1.94
1xBet
1.94
Superbet
1.90
Akhmat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
13.0%
@ 5.00-5.5%
Under
87.0%
@ 1.13+5.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
5.05
1xBet
5.05
Superbet
4.90
Under
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
Akhmat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
2.7%
@ 15.00-3.6%
Under
97.3%
@ 1.01+3.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
15.00
Under
Superbet
1.01
Krylia Sovetov over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
35.9%
@ 2.56-0.5%
Under
64.1%
@ 1.47+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Pinnacle
2.73
Marathonbet
2.55
1xBet
2.55
Superbet
2.42
Under
Superbet
1.50
Pinnacle
1.47
Marathonbet
1.45
1xBet
1.45
Krylia Sovetov over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
7.5%
@ 9.58-2.2%
Under
92.5%
@ 1.03+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
10.25
1xBet
10.20
Superbet
8.30
Under
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
Krylia Sovetov over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
1.2%
@ 33.00-98.8%
Under
98.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
33.00
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akhmat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.67
0.60
1.00
0.53
0.33
0.67
vs Stronger (13)
0.46
0.46
0.60
0.60
0.38
0.38
vs Similar (17)
0.82
0.71
1.20
0.50
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
47% (+20pp vs league)
This opponent (Krylia Sovetov) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Krylia Sovetov
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.1
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.6
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.87
0.67
0.73
0.40
1.00
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.21
0.86
1.00
0.29
1.43
vs Similar (16)
0.50
0.56
0.50
0.50
0.50
0.62
vs Weaker (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
Clean sheet %
43% (+16pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Similar. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
76.0%
@ 1.22+0.0%
Under 0.5
24.0%
@ 3.87-0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
Under
Marathonbet
3.88
1xBet
3.88
Superbet
3.85
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
42.5%
@ 2.11-2.2%
Under 1.5
57.5%
@ 1.71+2.2%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.12
Superbet
2.10
Under
1xBet
1.72
Marathonbet
1.72
Superbet
1.69
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
17.2%
@ 4.43-3.7%
Under 2.5
82.8%
@ 1.18+3.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
4.45
1xBet
4.45
Superbet
4.40
Under
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
56.8%
@ 1.56-2.6%
Under
43.2%
@ 2.29+2.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
1.58
1xBet
1.55
Under
1xBet
2.33
Superbet
2.25
Akhmat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
19.7%
@ 3.63-5.7%
Under
80.3%
@ 1.24+5.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
3.75
1xBet
3.60
Marathonbet
3.55
Under
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
Akhmat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
4.8%
@ 9.85-4.6%
Under
95.2%
@ 1.02+4.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
10.00
1xBet
9.70
Under
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
Krylia Sovetov over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
44.1%
@ 2.08-0.5%
Under
55.9%
@ 1.67+0.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
2.12
1xBet
2.10
Superbet
2.02
Under
Superbet
1.71
1xBet
1.67
Marathonbet
1.64
Krylia Sovetov over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
11.1%
@ 6.80-2.5%
Under
88.9%
@ 1.07+2.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Marathonbet
7.30
1xBet
6.90
Superbet
6.20
Under
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
Krylia Sovetov over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
2.3%
@ 21.00-97.7%
Under
97.7%
Best 5 market prices
Over
Superbet
21.00
Under
No market prices yet.
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🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 HT goals
98.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.4%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
98.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+2.7%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 2H goals
97.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 HT goals
97.3%
1.01
Superbet
1.01
-
-
-
-
+3.6%
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.5%
1.03
Superbet
1.03
-
-
-
-
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Home under 2.5 2H goals
95.2%
1.02
Superbet
1.03
1xBet
1.01
-
-
-
+4.6%
✓ Hit
Away under 2.5 goals
92.7%
1.04
Superbet
1.06
1xBet
1.03
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+3.1%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 HT goals
92.5%
1.03
Superbet
1.05
1xBet
1.02
Marathonbet
1.02
-
-
+2.2%
✗ Miss
Home under 3.5 goals
92.2%
1.04
Superbet
1.05
Marathonbet
1.03
1xBet
1.03
-
-
+2.9%
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
92.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
90.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 2.5 HT goals
89.6%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.06
-
-
+3.3%
✗ Miss
Away under 1.5 2H goals
88.9%
1.07
Superbet
1.09
Marathonbet
1.06
1xBet
1.05
-
-
+2.5%
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
88.4%
1.09
Pinnacle
1.13
Superbet
1.11
Marathonbet
1.07
1xBet
1.07
-
+3.9%
✗ Miss
Home under 1.5 HT goals
87.0%
1.13
Superbet
1.14
Marathonbet
1.13
1xBet
1.13
-
-
+5.5%
✗ Miss
Under 2.5 2H goals
82.8%
1.18
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.17
Marathonbet
1.17
-
-
+3.7%
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
82.3%
1.29
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.27
Marathonbet
1.27
-
-
+11.8%
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
81.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 2.5 cards
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 2H goals
80.3%
1.24
Marathonbet
1.25
1xBet
1.24
Superbet
1.23
-
-
+5.7%
✓ Hit
Home over 0.5 goals
79.6%
1.19
Superbet
1.19
1xBet
1.18
-
-
-
+0.4%
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
78.6%
1.24
Pinnacle
1.26
Marathonbet
1.24
1xBet
1.23
Superbet
1.23
-
+2.9%
✗ Miss
Home or Draw
78.4%
1.22
Superbet
1.24
1xBet
1.24
Marathonbet
1.23
SBO
1.17
-
+0.9%
✓ Hit
Home +1 handicap
78.4%
1.24
Superbet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.23
-
-
-
+5.3%
✓ Hit
Over 0.5 2H goals
76.0%
1.22
Superbet
1.23
Marathonbet
1.22
1xBet
1.22
-
-
+0.0%
✓ Hit
Away under 1.5 goals
75.1%
1.31
Superbet
1.34
1xBet
1.33
Pinnacle
1.30
Marathonbet
1.29
-
+3.4%
✗ Miss
Under 3.5
74.7%
1.32
Pinnacle
1.35
Superbet
1.33
Marathonbet
1.30
1xBet
1.30
-
+4.2%
✗ Miss
Over 1.5
73.5%
1.26
Pinnacle
1.29
Superbet
1.27
1xBet
1.25
Marathonbet
1.25
-
-0.1%
✓ Hit
Under 10.5 corners
73.1%
1.51
Pinnacle
1.53
Superbet
1.52
1xBet
1.50
Marathonbet
1.50
-
+12.2%
✓ Hit
Away +2 handicap
72.5%
1.30
Marathonbet
1.32
Superbet
1.28
-
-
-
+3.4%
✓ Hit
Home or Away
72.5%
1.27
1xBet
1.31
Marathonbet
1.30
Superbet
1.28
SBO
1.21
-
-1.6%
✗ Miss
Under 5.5 cards
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Akhmat
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Egas Cacintura50%
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Erald Maksuti20%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Manuel Keliano0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Georgiy Melkadze33%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Júlio Romão20%
Erald Maksuti20%
Miroslav Bogosavac17%
Klisman Cake17%
Ousmane N’Dong17%
Ismael Silva0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Egas Cacintura0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Lechi Sadulaev40%
Egas Cacintura25%
Arsen Adamov17%
Kirill Shchetinin17%
Georgiy Melkadze0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Ismael Silva0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ismael Silva33%
Egas Cacintura25%
Lechi Sadulaev20%
Georgiy Melkadze17%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev17%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Kirill Shchetinin0%
Maksim Samorodov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Júlio Romão0%
Erald Maksuti0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Krylia Sovetov
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Nikita Chernov50%
Ivan Oleynikov33%
Vladislav Shitov33%
Dominik Oroz17%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Fernando Costanza0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Mihajlo Banjac0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar Rahmanović0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani Fernández0%
Sergey Babkin0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Denis Makarov40%
Dominik Oroz33%
Kirill Pechenin33%
Thomas Galdames33%
Maksim Vityugov33%
Nikita Chernov25%
Sergey Babkin25%
Fernando Costanza20%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Ivan Oleynikov0%
Mihajlo Banjac0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar Rahmanović0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Dani Fernández0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Yuriy Gorshkov67%
Mihajlo Banjac25%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Martin Kramarič17%
Nikita Chernov0%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Dominik Oroz0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Fernando Costanza0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Ivan Oleynikov0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar Rahmanović0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani Fernández0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Sergey Babkin0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Ivan Oleynikov33%
Mihajlo Banjac25%
Fernando Costanza20%
Maksim Vityugov17%
Nikita Chernov0%
Nikolay Rasskazov0%
Dominik Oroz0%
Kirill Pechenin0%
Thomas Galdames0%
Yuriy Gorshkov0%
Sergey Bozhin0%
Sergey Pesyakov0%
Amar Rahmanović0%
Martin Kramarič0%
Denis Makarov0%
Dani Fernández0%
Vladislav Shitov0%
Sergey Babkin0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
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💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FAK (26)
€14m
Akhmat's squad is €4m more valuable than Krylia Sovetov's (€30m vs €26m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
FAK (10)
€5m
Akhmat's attack is €8m more valuable than Krylia Sovetov's (€17m vs €9m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
FAK (4)
€2m
Akhmat's midfield is €1m less valuable than Krylia Sovetov's (€4m vs €6m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
AKH (10)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
Akhmat's defence is €2m less valuable than Krylia Sovetov's (€9m vs €11m).
Russia: Premier League 2026/27 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Spartak Moscow
Zenit
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
Dinamo Makhachkala
FC Orenburg
FC Rostov
Rodina Moskva
Lokomotiv
Akron
Fakel