PythiaFootballBETA
Akhmat will be looking to bounce back from a recent defeat against strong opponents, having come up short against Spartak Moscow in their last outing, a 1-2 loss. This match sees the two teams face off again, with Spartak Moscow as the favourites to secure an away win, according to the model, with a 39% chance of success. The model's selection, an away win, is the most likely outcome, with Akhmat's home win percentage at 30%, and a draw at 31%. The expected number of goals is 2.3, with the most likely total goals being 2.
The most likely scoreline is a 1-1 draw, occurring 14.5% of the time. Akhmat has scored an average of 1 goal at home, conceding 0.86 on average, while Spartak Moscow has scored 1.4 goals on average away from home, conceding 0.9. The model has identified Over 21.5 fouls as its selection, with a 93.8% probability of success. It has also selected Under 3.5, with a probability of 80% and a notable edge of 11%, and Over 3.5 cards, with a 70.9% probability of success.
Akhmat's win extends their run of consecutive matches without a victory. The final score was 1-2 in favour of the home team, resulting in an away win. The model correctly predicted the away win, as Spartak Moscow were the favourites with a pre-match probability of 39%. The model's selection, an away win, was the correct call. The model's other selections largely came in, with over 21.5 fouls (93.8% probability, hit), under 3.5 goals (80% probability, hit), and over 3.5 cards (70.9% probability, hit) all occurring.
Akhmat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.23 | 1.33 | 1.29 | 0.86 | 1.19 | 1.75 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 1.00 | 1.58 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 1.00 | 2.00 |
| vs Similar (18) | 1.39 | 1.17 | 1.44 | 0.78 | 1.33 | 1.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 20% (-7pp vs league) | |||||
Spartak Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 1.63 | 1.20 | 1.79 | 0.86 | 1.50 | 1.50 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 1.00 | - | - | 0.00 | 1.00 |
| vs Similar (12) | 1.58 | 1.50 | 1.38 | 0.75 | 2.00 | 3.00 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.88 | 1.00 | 2.33 | 1.00 | 1.60 | 1.00 |
| Clean sheet % | 27% (-0pp vs league) | |||||
| Spartak Moscow goals → | |||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | |
| 0 | 11% | 11% | 7.7% | 3.2% | 1.0% |
| 1 | 9.3% | 14% | 8.2% | 3.4% | 1.0% |
| 2 | 5.6% | 7.0% | 4.3% | 1.8% | 0.6% |
| 3 | 2.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% | 0.6% | 0.2% |
| 4 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 0.4% | 0.2% | 0.1% |
AkhmatSpartak MoscowAkhmat| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.5 | 10.4 | 8.6 | 4.4 | 4.2 | 4.6 | 29.5 | 29.1 | 29.9 |
| vs Stronger (20) | 10.3 | 11.6 | 9.1 | 3.8 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 29.6 | 28.5 | 30.6 |
| vs Similar (29) | 9.0 | 9.7 | 8.3 | 4.7 | 4.5 | 4.9 | 29.4 | 29.4 | 29.4 |
| vs Weaker (1) | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 8.0 | - | 8.0 | 29.0 | - | 29.0 |
| % over line | 45% | 60% | 32% | 62% | 61% | 63% | 90% | 90% | 91% |
| % under line | 55% | 40% | 68% | 38% | 39% | 37% | 10% | 10% | 9% |
Spartak Moscow| Split | Corners | Cards | Fouls | ||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | Tot | Hme | Awy | |
| Overall (50) | 9.1 | 8.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 4.6 | 5.3 | 30.1 | 29.5 | 30.7 |
| vs Stronger (3) | 11.0 | 15.0 | 7.0 | 3.7 | 5.0 | 3.0 | 25.5 | 24.0 | 27.0 |
| vs Similar (16) | 8.0 | 7.5 | 8.4 | 5.3 | 4.2 | 6.7 | 32.8 | 31.2 | 34.0 |
| vs Weaker (31) | 9.3 | 8.6 | 10.0 | 4.9 | 4.8 | 5.0 | 29.5 | 29.3 | 29.7 |
| % over line | 40% | 29% | 50% | 74% | 69% | 79% | 97% | 100% | 94% |
| % under line | 60% | 71% | 50% | 26% | 31% | 21% | 3% | 0% | 6% |
Akhmat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.53 | 0.70 | 0.36 | 0.36 | 0.69 | 1.00 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.42 | 1.08 | 0.20 | 0.40 | 0.57 | 1.57 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.61 | 0.44 | 0.44 | 0.33 | 0.78 | 0.56 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
Spartak Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.83 | 0.53 | 1.00 | 0.29 | 0.69 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.75 | 0.67 | 0.75 | 0.25 | 0.75 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 1.00 | 0.44 | 1.33 | 0.33 | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 53% (+26pp vs league) | |||||
Akhmat| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.70 | 0.63 | 0.93 | 0.50 | 0.50 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (12) | 0.58 | 0.50 | 0.80 | 0.60 | 0.43 | 0.43 |
| vs Similar (18) | 0.78 | 0.72 | 1.00 | 0.44 | 0.56 | 1.00 |
| vs Weaker (0) | - | - | - | - | - | - |
| Clean sheet % | 43% (+16pp vs league) | |||||
Spartak Moscow| Split | Total Scored | Total Conceded | Home Scored | Home Conceded | Away Scored | Away Conceded |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Avg goals/game | 0.80 | 0.67 | 0.79 | 0.57 | 0.81 | 0.75 |
| vs Stronger (2) | 0.00 | 0.50 | - | - | 0.00 | 0.50 |
| vs Similar (12) | 0.83 | 0.83 | 0.62 | 0.50 | 1.25 | 1.50 |
| vs Weaker (16) | 0.88 | 0.56 | 1.00 | 0.67 | 0.80 | 0.50 |
| Clean sheet % | 50% (+23pp vs league) | |||||
| Pick | Probability | Avg odds | Best 1 | Best 2 | Best 3 | Best 4 | Best 5 | Edge | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Over 19.5 fouls | 97.8% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 21.5 fouls | 94.6% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 23.5 fouls | 88.5% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Over 2.5 cards | 84.9% | - | - | - | - | - | - | - | ✓ Hit |
| Under 3.5 | 80.0% | 1.35 | 1.38 | 1.35 | 1.34 | 1.34 | - | +11.2% | ✓ Hit |
| Over 25.5 fouls | 79.2% | 1.36 | 1.36 | - | - | - | - | +12.7% | ✓ Hit |
| Under 11.5 corners | 74.2% | 1.32 | 1.37 | 1.30 | 1.28 | - | - | +4.8% | ✓ Hit |
| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 09/11/25 | H | 1-2 | |
| 30/03/25 | H | 0-0 | |
| 11/08/24 | A | 0-0 | |
| 03/12/23 | H | 2-1 | |
| 26/08/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 01/04/23 | A | 0-0 | |
| 16/07/22 | H | 1-1 |
Akhmat| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 26/07/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 1-1 | |
| 10/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 03/05/26 | H | 2-0 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 2-0 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 19/04/26 | A | 3-1 | |
| 11/04/26 | A | 2-2 | |
| 04/04/26 | H | 0-1 | |
| 21/03/26 | H | 1-0 |
Spartak Moscow| Date | H/A | Game | Score |
|---|---|---|---|
| 25/07/26 | H | 3-0 | |
| 24/05/26 | H | 1-1 | |
| 17/05/26 | A | 0-0 | |
| 11/05/26 | H | 2-1 | |
| 06/05/26 | H | 1-0 | |
| 01/05/26 | A | 2-1 | |
| 26/04/26 | A | 1-2 | |
| 23/04/26 | H | 1-2 | |
| 19/04/26 | H | 3-1 | |
| 12/04/26 | A | 1-1 |
| Record | Goals | Props / game | Squad value €m | Strengths | |||||||||||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rank | Team | MP | Pts | Win% | PPG | GF | GA | GD | G/G | O1.5 | O2.5 | O3.5 | Cor | Cor O% | Crd | Crd O% | Fls | Fls O% | Tot | Att | Mid | Def | Att/g | Def/g | Poss% |
| 1 |  FC Krasnodar | 5 | 15 | 100% | 3.0 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 60% | 60% | 40% | 8.4 | 40% | 4.2 | 80% | 23.8 | 60% | 125 | 64 | 20 | 41 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 2 | Spartak Moscow | 5 | 12 | 80% | 2.4 | 10 | 4 | +6 | 2.8 | 100% | 80% | 0% | 11.2 | 60% | 5.8 | 80% | 28.6 | 100% | 119 | 58 | 29 | 32 | 2.0 | 0.8 | 60% |
| 3 |  CSKA Moscow | 5 | 11 | 60% | 2.2 | 7 | 4 | +3 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.2 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 25.8 | 80% | 137 | 41 | 52 | 44 | 1.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 4 |  Zenit | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 12 | 4 | +8 | 3.2 | 100% | 80% | 20% | 10.2 | 40% | 5.2 | 80% | 26.8 | 60% | 204 | 109 | 44 | 51 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 57% |
| 5 |  Dinamo Makhachkala | 5 | 9 | 60% | 1.8 | 9 | 7 | +2 | 3.2 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 10.0 | 80% | 4.0 | 40% | 23.8 | 60% | 23 | 6 | 3 | 13 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 39% |
| 6 |  Baltika | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 6 | +1 | 2.6 | 100% | 60% | 0% | 9.2 | 40% | 2.6 | 20% | 25.6 | 80% | 36 | 8 | 13 | 16 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 37% |
| 7 |  Dynamo | 5 | 7 | 40% | 1.4 | 7 | 7 | +0 | 2.8 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 7.8 | 20% | 4.5 | 75% | 27.4 | 100% | 111 | 46 | 23 | 41 | 1.4 | 1.4 | 65% |
| 8 |  Rubin | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 6 | 7 | -1 | 2.6 | 100% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.0 | 20% | 24.6 | 60% | 53 | 18 | 13 | 22 | 1.2 | 1.4 | 45% |
| 9 |  FC Orenburg | 5 | 6 | 20% | 1.2 | 4 | 6 | -2 | 2.0 | 80% | 40% | 0% | 8.8 | 40% | 4.8 | 60% | 29.0 | 100% | 25 | 10 | 6 | 9 | 0.8 | 1.2 | 41% |
| 10 | Akhmat | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 6 | 5 | +1 | 2.2 | 60% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 40% | 25.2 | 80% | 32 | 16 | 3 | 13 | 1.2 | 1.0 | 43% |
| 11 |  FC Rostov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 7 | 9 | -2 | 3.2 | 80% | 60% | 40% | 7.2 | 20% | 4.2 | 20% | 26.8 | 80% | 37 | 17 | 3 | 17 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 50% |
| 12 |  Krylia Sovetov | 5 | 5 | 20% | 1.0 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.8 | 50% | 27.4 | 80% | 32 | 13 | 8 | 11 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 49% |
| 13 |  Rodina Moskva | 5 | 4 | 20% | 0.8 | 8 | 14 | -6 | 4.4 | 100% | 100% | 60% | 10.8 | 60% | 3.0 | 20% | 26.6 | 80% | 17 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 1.6 | 2.8 | 39% |
| 14 |  Lokomotiv | 5 | 3 | 0% | 0.6 | 5 | 7 | -2 | 2.4 | 80% | 40% | 20% | 7.8 | 20% | 3.4 | 20% | 27.4 | 80% | 111 | 53 | 18 | 41 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 52% |
| 15 |  Fakel | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 3 | 6 | -3 | 1.8 | 40% | 40% | 20% | 10.2 | 80% | 3.6 | 60% | 25.6 | 80% | 14 | 5 | 2 | 7 | 0.6 | 1.2 | 51% |
| 16 |  Akron | 5 | 2 | 0% | 0.4 | 4 | 13 | -9 | 3.4 | 80% | 80% | 40% | 8.6 | 20% | 4.4 | 60% | 25.6 | 60% | 30 | 11 | 8 | 11 | 0.8 | 2.6 | 57% |