Akhmat’s recent draw against Krylia Sovetov has them looking cautious, while Zenit, fresh from a win over Fakel, are riding momentum. The model favours an away win, giving Zenit a 47% chance, with a 29% draw probability and 24% for Akhmat. The expected total goals sit at 2.5, but the most likely total is two, with a 27% chance. The single most likely scoreline is 1-1, carrying a 13.6% probability. Akhmat’s home form shows they average 1.17 goals scored and 1.0 conceded against stronger opponents, whereas Zenit’s away form is stronger, scoring 1.54 and conceding only 0.62 against weaker sides. Suggested picks include Under 7.5 at 99.6%, Under 6.5 at 98.6%, Home under 3.5 goals at 98.0%, Under 5.5 at 95.8%, Away under 3.5 goals at 93.6%, Home under 2.5 goals at 91.8%, Over 19.5 fouls at 91.6%, and Away +2 handicap at 90.7%. All selections are presented with their exact probabilities.
Results analysis
The win for Zenit extends their recent run, with a 1-2 victory over Akhmat. The model’s favourite, an away win, proved correct, matching the final result. It had a 47% probability, while the home win and draw were 24% and 29% respectively. The model’s selections largely hit: Under 7.5 goals (99.6%) was correct, as were Under 6.5 (98.6%), Home under 3.5 goals (98.0%), Under 5.5 (95.8%), Away under 3.5 goals (93.6%), Home under 2.5 goals (91.8%) and the Away +2 handicap (90.7%). The most likely score of 1-1 had a 13.6% chance, but the match finished 1-2, confirming the model’s overall accuracy.
🎯 1. Model Analysis
Akhmat win✗ Miss
24.4%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw✗ Miss
28.5%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Zenit win✓ Hit
47.1%
Avg Implied -
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
⚽ 2. Goal Analysis
Akhmat
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.7
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
1.8
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.03
1.50
1.21
1.14
0.88
1.81
vs Stronger (14)
0.93
1.57
1.17
1.00
0.75
2.00
vs Similar (15)
1.13
1.47
1.25
1.25
1.00
1.71
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
17% (-12pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
2.2
Avg scored
1.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
1.87
0.70
2.19
0.69
1.50
0.71
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
2.50
1.50
4.00
1.00
1.00
2.00
vs Weaker (28)
1.82
0.64
2.07
0.67
1.54
0.62
Clean sheet %
50% (+21pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Total goals distribution
The model estimates around 2.5 goals in this match; the single most likely total is 2 (27%).
Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
72.5%
Under 1.5
27.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 2.5Actual: Over
Over 2.5
45.6%
Under 2.5
54.4%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Over/Under 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
24.2%
Under 3.5
75.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Both teams to scoreActual: Yes
Yes
50.4%
No
49.6%
Best 5 market prices
Yes
No market prices yet.
No
No market prices yet.
Correct score
Top 8 scorelines with probability, best odds and edge (left); the full probability grid (right).
1-1
13.6%
0-1
11.0%
0-0
9.5%
1-2 ✓
9.2%
0-2
9.1%
1-0
7.1%
2-1
6.2%
2-2
4.6%
Akhmat goals ↓
Zenit goals →
0
1
2
3
4
0
9.5%
11%
9.1%
4.5%
1.7%
1
7.1%
14%
9.2%
4.6%
1.7%
2
4.2%
6.2%
4.6%
2.3%
0.9%
3
1.4%
2.1%
1.6%
0.8%
0.3%
4
0.4%
0.5%
0.4%
0.2%
0.1%
Each cell is the % chance of that exact scoreline. Rows = Akhmat goals (down), columns = Zenit goals (across).
💪 3. Team Strengths Analysis
🏆 Total PPG
Points / game
Zenit
2.58
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.50
Chayka
2.33
Volgar Astrakhan
2.33
Lokomotiv
2.27
Amkal
2.25
Kuban Kholding
2.25
Spartak Kostroma
2.20
Ural
2.17
Luki-Energiya
2.00
Tver
2.00
Orel
2.00
Mashuk-KMV
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
FC Sochi
2.00
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
2.00
CSKA Moscow
1.92
FC Rostov
1.85
Volga Ulyanovsk
1.75
Amkar
1.60
Zenit Penza
1.50
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Dinamo Stavropol
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Torpedo Miass
1.50
Temp Barnaul
1.50
Kristall
1.50
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Novosibirsk
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Salyut-Belgorod
1.50
2Drots
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FK Sokol Saratov
1.50
Torpedo Moskva
1.50
Rodina Moskva
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.33
Chelyabinsk
1.33
Baltika
1.33
Dynamo
1.27
Znamya Truda
1.25
Akron
1.25
FC Krasnodar
1.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
1.25
Akhmat
1.20
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.12
Rubin
1.11
PSK Dinskaya
1.06
Shumbrat
1.06
Fankom
1.06
Kristall MEZ
1.06
Znamya Noginsk
1.06
RWChallenge
1.06
Buryatia
1.06
Murom
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Chernomorets
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Leningradets
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FK Neftekhimik
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.67
Sokol Kazan
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
FC Orenburg
0.50
Fakel
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Krylia Sovetov
0.17
Irkutsk
0.00
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
KDV
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
0.00
Dinamo Barnaul
0.00
Legion Dynamo
0.00
Anri Vladivostok
0.00
FK Spartak Tambov
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Nart Cherkessk
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Druzhba
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Kaluga
0.00
Veles
0.00
Enisey
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
KAMAZ
0.00
Kolomna
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Akhmat is 1.38 points worse than Zenit in terms of average points per game (1.20 vs 2.58).
⚔️ Attack
Goals scored / game
Amkal
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Orel
2.67
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Torpedo Vladimir
2.50
FC Sochi
2.50
Volga Ulyanovsk
2.50
Lokomotiv
2.09
KDV
2.00
Murom
2.00
Kristall
2.00
Dinamo St. Petersburg
2.00
FK Spartak Tambov
2.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
2.00
Novosibirsk
2.00
Spartak Moscow
2.00
Tyumen
2.00
Volgar Astrakhan
2.00
Ryazan
2.00
FK Sokol Saratov
2.00
Tekstilshchik
2.00
Rodina Moskva
2.00
Kuban Kholding
2.00
Zenit
1.92
Dynamo
1.91
Luki-Energiya
1.75
Chayka
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
Baltika
1.67
Chertanovo Moscow
1.50
Sokol Kazan
1.50
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.50
Tver
1.50
Dinamo Kirov
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
1.50
Spartak Kostroma
1.40
FC Rostov
1.38
Krylia Sovetov
1.33
Akhmat
1.30
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.25
PSK Dinskaya
1.23
Shumbrat
1.23
Fankom
1.23
Kristall MEZ
1.23
Znamya Noginsk
1.23
RWChallenge
1.23
Buryatia
1.23
Amkar
1.20
Ural
1.17
CSKA Moscow
1.15
Akron
1.12
Zenit Penza
1.00
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Saturn Ramenskoye
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
1.00
Dinamo Barnaul
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Legion Dynamo
1.00
Pobeda
1.00
Anri Vladivostok
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Dinamo Vologda
1.00
Nart Cherkessk
1.00
Druzhba
1.00
Kaluga
1.00
FC Orenburg
1.00
Torpedo Moskva
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
KAMAZ
1.00
FC Krasnodar
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
Kolomna
1.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.00
Nizhny Novgorod
0.83
Rubin
0.78
Chelyabinsk
0.67
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Broke Boys
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.50
2Drots
0.50
FC UFA
0.50
Fakel
0.33
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
Irkutsk
0.00
Spartak Nalchik
0.00
Avangard Kursk
0.00
Dinamo Bryansk
0.00
Cherepovets
0.00
Urozhay
0.00
Nosta
0.00
Ilpar
0.00
Veles
0.00
Enisey
0.00
Ska-khabarovsk
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Angust Nazran
0.00
Strogino
0.00
Akhmat is 0.62 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals scored per game (1.30 vs 1.92).
🛡️ Defense
Conceded / game · lower better
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
0.00
Chayka
0.00
FK Neftekhimik
0.00
Dinamo Vladivostok
0.25
Shinnik Yaroslavl
0.25
CSKA Moscow
0.38
Zenit
0.42
Dinamo Stavropol
0.50
Torpedo Miass
0.50
Tver
0.50
2Drots
0.50
Uralets Nizhnyi Tagil
0.50
Baltika
0.67
Luki-Energiya
0.75
Amkal
0.75
Tyumen
0.75
FC Sochi
0.75
Volga Ulyanovsk
0.75
Spartak Kostroma
0.80
Ural
0.83
Rubin
0.89
FC Rostov
0.92
Irkutsk
1.00
Spartak Nalchik
1.00
Chertanovo Moscow
1.00
Kosmos Dolgoprudny
1.00
Broke Boys
1.00
Znamya Truda
1.00
Irtysh Omsk
1.00
Kvant
1.00
Mashuk-KMV
1.00
Volna Nizhegorodskaya
1.00
Cherepovets
1.00
Spartak Moscow
1.00
Nosta
1.00
Volgar Astrakhan
1.00
Tekstilshchik
1.00
Arsenal Tula
1.00
Chelyabinsk
1.00
Enisey
1.00
Ska-khabarovsk
1.00
Rodina Moskva
1.00
Rotor Volgograd
1.00
FC UFA
1.00
Angust Nazran
1.00
Strogino
1.00
Lokomotiv
1.09
Dinamo Makhachkala
1.38
Amkar
1.40
Akhmat
1.40
Pobeda
1.50
Dinamo St. Petersburg
1.50
Dinamo Vologda
1.50
Astrakhan
1.50
Ryazan
1.50
FC Krasnodar
1.50
Kuban Kholding
1.50
Khimik Dzerzhinsk
1.67
Orel
1.67
FC Orenburg
1.67
Leningradets
1.67
Fakel
1.67
PSK Dinskaya
1.67
Shumbrat
1.67
Fankom
1.67
Kristall MEZ
1.67
Znamya Noginsk
1.67
RWChallenge
1.67
Buryatia
1.67
Dynamo
1.73
Nizhny Novgorod
1.83
Akron
1.88
Zenit Penza
2.00
Murom
2.00
Avangard Kursk
2.00
Sokol Kazan
2.00
Dinamo Barnaul
2.00
Legion Dynamo
2.00
Nart Cherkessk
2.00
Torpedo Vladimir
2.00
Druzhba
2.00
Ilpar
2.00
Kaluga
2.00
Veles
2.00
KAMAZ
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
2.00
Temp Barnaul
2.50
Kristall
2.50
Novosibirsk
2.50
FK Sokol Saratov
2.50
Torpedo Moskva
2.50
Saturn Ramenskoye
3.00
Salyut-Belgorod
3.00
Chernomorets
3.00
Krylia Sovetov
3.67
Dinamo Bryansk
4.00
Zvezda St. Petersburg
4.00
FK Spartak Tambov
4.00
Dinamo Kirov
4.50
KDV
5.00
Anri Vladivostok
5.00
Urozhay
5.00
Kolomna
8.00
Akhmat is 0.98 goals worse than Zenit in terms of goals conceded per game (1.40 vs 0.42).
⏱️ Possession
Not available for this league.
Not enough data to compare these two teams.
🎲 4. Props Analysis
Akhmat
For 5.6 · Against 5.4 · Total 11.0
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 2.0 · Against 3.9 · Total 5.9
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 12.2 · Against 17.6 · Total 29.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Zenit
For 6.7 · Against 2.9 · Total 9.6
🚩 Corners
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 1.3 · Against 2.3 · Total 3.6
🟨 Cards
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
For 10.8 · Against 18.0 · Total 28.8
⚠️ Fouls
ForAgainstTotal per gameAverage total
Akhmat
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
10.0
10.7
9.3
4.1
4.5
3.7
28.0
28.9
27.1
vs Stronger (23)
10.5
11.3
9.8
3.1
3.1
3.2
28.3
29.3
27.4
vs Similar (25)
9.6
10.0
9.1
4.8
5.6
4.0
27.6
28.3
26.7
vs Weaker (2)
11.0
14.0
8.0
6.5
5.0
8.0
30.5
32.0
29.0
% over line
56%
70%
42%
62%
67%
58%
80%
85%
75%
% under line
44%
30%
58%
38%
33%
42%
20%
15%
25%
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Split
Corners
Cards
Fouls
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Tot
Hme
Awy
Overall (50)
9.6
10.4
8.8
3.4
4.1
2.8
24.5
25.7
23.3
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (4)
8.8
8.5
9.0
6.2
7.0
5.5
34.2
39.5
29.0
vs Weaker (46)
9.7
10.6
8.8
3.2
3.8
2.5
23.3
24.1
22.6
% over line
47%
53%
42%
48%
60%
36%
58%
68%
47%
% under line
53%
47%
58%
52%
40%
64%
42%
32%
53%
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
🚩 Total Corners
Match total corners / game
Arsenal Tula
12.5
FC Orenburg
11.3
Shinnik Yaroslavl
10.8
Lokomotiv
10.7
Dynamo
10.6
Chernomorets
10.6
Baltika
10.3
Ural
10.2
Nizhny Novgorod
10.2
Akron
10.2
KAMAZ
10.1
Akhmat
10.1
Zenit
9.8
Dinamo Makhachkala
9.8
Spartak Moscow
9.8
Volgar Astrakhan
9.6
Krylia Sovetov
9.6
Rubin
9.5
Rodina Moskva
9.5
Veles
9.4
Urozhay
9.3
CSKA Moscow
9.3
FK Sokol Saratov
9.2
Fakel
9.2
FC Rostov
9.0
FC Sochi
9.0
FC Krasnodar
8.8
FC UFA
8.7
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
8.5
Leningradets
8.4
FK Neftekhimik
8.2
Enisey
7.8
Tyumen
7.4
Torpedo Moskva
6.5
Volga Ulyanovsk
6.3
🟨 Total Cards
Match total cards / game
Volga Ulyanovsk
5.3
Spartak Moscow
5.2
Fakel
5.2
Akhmat
5.2
Lokomotiv
4.8
FC Rostov
4.8
Veles
4.7
Rubin
4.7
Dinamo Makhachkala
4.7
FC Krasnodar
4.7
FC Orenburg
4.6
Spartak Kostroma
4.5
CSKA Moscow
4.5
Krylia Sovetov
4.5
KAMAZ
4.4
Dynamo
4.4
Nizhny Novgorod
4.3
FC UFA
4.3
Urozhay
4.3
Ural
4.3
Volgar Astrakhan
4.2
Zenit
4.2
FC Sochi
4.2
Chayka
4.0
Chernomorets
3.9
Baltika
3.9
Enisey
3.8
Rotor Volgograd
3.6
Torpedo Moskva
3.5
Chelyabinsk
3.5
Rodina Moskva
3.4
Ska-khabarovsk
3.4
Akron
3.4
Leningradets
3.4
Shinnik Yaroslavl
3.3
Tyumen
3.3
Arsenal Tula
3.2
FK Neftekhimik
3.2
FK Sokol Saratov
3.1
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
3.1
⚠️ Total Fouls
Match total fouls / game
Dinamo Makhachkala
28.7
Spartak Moscow
27.5
Fakel
27.4
Akhmat
27.3
Nizhny Novgorod
26.2
FC Krasnodar
25.9
FC Rostov
25.8
Rubin
25.8
Dynamo
25.1
Ural
25.1
Lokomotiv
24.5
FC Orenburg
24.4
Zenit
23.8
FC Sochi
23.8
CSKA Moscow
23.5
Arsenal Tula
23.5
Akron
23.4
Baltika
22.7
Krylia Sovetov
22.7
Enisey
14.0
Alaniya Vladikavkaz
14.0
Corners O/U 9.5
Over 9.5
52.0%
Under 9.5
48.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Cards O/U 3.5Actual: Under
Over 3.5
65.5%
Under 3.5
34.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Fouls O/U 21.5
Over 21.5
83.0%
Under 21.5
17.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔀 5. Double Chance
Double Chance
Two of the three results in one selection. The probability is the sum of those outcomes from the model above, so any edge here is the market pricing the combination out of line with its own 1X2.
Akhmat or Draw✗ Miss
52.9%
Avg Implied -
24%
29%
47%
covers Akhmat + Draw
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Akhmat or Zenit✓ Hit
71.5%
Avg Implied -
24%
29%
47%
covers Akhmat + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
Draw or Zenit✓ Hit
75.6%
Avg Implied -
24%
29%
47%
covers Draw + Zenit
Best 5 market prices
No market prices yet.
🥅 6. Home & Away Over/Under
Home & Away Over/Under
How many goals each side scores on its own, independent of the result. Read off the same scoreline distribution as correct score, so these agree with the match over/under above by construction.
Akhmat over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
63.5%
Under
36.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5Actual: Under
Over
26.7%
Under
73.3%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
8.2%
Under
91.8%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
2.0%
Under
98.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5Actual: Over
Over
77.5%
Under
22.5%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 1.5Actual: Over
Over
43.9%
Under
56.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 2.5Actual: Under
Over
18.9%
Under
81.1%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 3.5Actual: Under
Over
6.4%
Under
93.6%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⚖️ 7. Handicap
Handicap
The handicap is applied to Akhmat, so a minus line means Akhmat give that many goals of a start and Zenit receive them. At -1, Akhmat must win by two or more to land; a one-goal Akhmat win settles as Draw. There is no returned stake - the middle case is its own selection. Taken from the same scoreline distribution as correct score.
Handicap -2 (Akhmat)Actual: Zenit
Akhmat -2
2.6%
Draw -2
6.7%
Zenit +2
90.7%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap -1 (Akhmat)Actual: Zenit
Akhmat -1
9.3%
Draw -1
15.1%
Zenit +1
75.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +1 (Akhmat)Actual: Draw
Akhmat +1
52.9%
Draw +1
22.8%
Zenit -1
24.3%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
Handicap +2 (Akhmat)Actual: Akhmat
Akhmat +2
75.7%
Draw +2
14.6%
Zenit -2
9.6%
Best 5 market prices
Home
No market prices yet.
Draw
No market prices yet.
Away
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 8. Half Time Goals O/U
Akhmat
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.5
Avg scored
0.4
Avg conceded
1.1
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.53
0.77
0.57
0.57
0.50
0.94
vs Stronger (14)
0.57
1.00
0.83
0.67
0.38
1.25
vs Similar (15)
0.53
0.60
0.38
0.50
0.71
0.71
vs Weaker (1)
0.00
0.00
-
-
0.00
0.00
Clean sheet %
40% (+11pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Half Time · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.3
Avg scored
0.9
Avg conceded
0.4
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.90
0.40
0.88
0.50
0.93
0.29
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.00
1.00
2.00
1.00
0.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.89
0.36
0.80
0.47
1.00
0.23
Clean sheet %
70% (+41pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Half Time Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 1.5Actual: Over
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Half Time Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 9. Half Time Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the first half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's half-time goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the half-time match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 1.5 HTActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 2.5 HTActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
⏱️ 10. Second Half Goals O/U
Akhmat
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
1.2
Avg scored
0.5
Avg conceded
0.7
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.50
0.73
0.64
0.57
0.38
0.88
vs Stronger (14)
0.36
0.57
0.33
0.33
0.38
0.75
vs Similar (15)
0.60
0.87
0.88
0.75
0.29
1.00
vs Weaker (1)
1.00
1.00
-
-
1.00
1.00
Clean sheet %
47% (+18pp vs league)
This opponent (Zenit) is Stronger. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Zenit
Second Half · Last 10 – goals for & against
Avg total
0.9
Avg scored
0.6
Avg conceded
0.3
Split
Total Scored
Total Conceded
Home Scored
Home Conceded
Away Scored
Away Conceded
Avg goals/game
0.97
0.30
1.31
0.19
0.57
0.43
vs Stronger (0)
-
-
-
-
-
-
vs Similar (2)
1.50
0.50
2.00
0.00
1.00
1.00
vs Weaker (28)
0.93
0.29
1.27
0.20
0.54
0.38
Clean sheet %
73% (+44pp vs league)
This opponent (Akhmat) is Weaker. The matching ‘vs’ row is the one to weigh.
Second Half Over/Under 0.5Actual: Over
Over 0.5
0.0%
Under 0.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 1.5Actual: Under
Over 1.5
0.0%
Under 1.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Second Half Over/Under 2.5Actual: Under
Over 2.5
0.0%
Under 2.5
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🥅 11. Second Half Home & Away O/U
How many goals each side scores in the second half on its own. Each line is modelled directly from that team's second-half goals rather than read off a scoreline grid, so unlike the full-time version the two sides need not sum exactly to the second-half match total.
Akhmat over/under 0.5 2HActual: Over
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Akhmat over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 0.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 1.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
Zenit over/under 2.5 2HActual: Under
Over
0.0%
Under
0.0%
Best 5 market prices
Over
No market prices yet.
Under
No market prices yet.
🔥 12. Top picks for this game
Every selection Pythia rates above 70%, ordered by probability. Use Min odds to match the prices you want: slide down for near-certainties at short prices, up for longer prices. Unpriced picks are ranked on the model's fair odds. Edge defaults to Yes, showing only selections priced BELOW what the model makes them; switch to All to include the rest, and picks we hold no price for. The five columns are the best market prices (highest first) for each pick; edge is vs the average. Result grades each pick against the final score.
Min odds1.20
Edge
Pick
Probability
Avg odds
Best 1
Best 2
Best 3
Best 4
Best 5
Edge
Result
Under 7.5
99.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 6.5
98.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 3.5 goals
98.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 5.5
95.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away under 3.5 goals
93.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 2.5 goals
91.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 19.5 fouls
91.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Away +2 handicap
90.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 4.5
89.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 21.5 fouls
83.0%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Over 2.5 cards
82.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✗ Miss
Away under 2.5 goals
81.1%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away over 0.5 goals
77.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 3.5
75.8%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home +2 handicap
75.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Draw or Away
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Away +1 handicap
75.6%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Home under 1.5 goals
73.3%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 1.5
72.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Under 11.5 corners
71.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Home or Away
71.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
Over 23.5 fouls
70.7%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Under 5.5 cards
70.5%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
✓ Hit
No picks at these odds - lower the slider to see shorter-priced selections.
🎽 13. Player market rates
Akhmat
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Egas Cacintura30%
Georgiy Melkadze26%
Galymzhan Kenzhebek17%
Maksim Samorodov14%
Ousmane N’Dong9%
Brian Mansilla9%
Mohamed Konaté5%
Maksim Sidorov4%
Manuel Keliano4%
Ismael Silva Lima4%
Lechi Sadulaev4%
Rifat Zhemaletdinov0%
Darko Todorović0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Nader Ghandri0%
Giorgi Shelia0%
Daniil Khlusevich0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Abakar Gadzhiev0%
Sergey Pryakhin0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Anas El Mahraoui0%
Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov0%
Mehdi Zare0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Darko Todorović33%
Ismael Silva Lima24%
Nader Ghandri24%
Sergey Pryakhin22%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev19%
Lechi Sadulaev19%
Ousmane N’Dong18%
Manuel Keliano17%
Galymzhan Kenzhebek17%
Abakar Gadzhiev17%
Maksim Sidorov13%
Mehdi Zare12%
Georgiy Melkadze11%
Papa Amady Gadio10%
Klisman Cake9%
Vadim Ulyanov8%
Giorgi Shelia6%
Mohamed Konaté5%
Brian Mansilla4%
Egas Cacintura4%
Maksim Samorodov4%
Miroslav Bogosavac3%
Rifat Zhemaletdinov0%
Daniil Khlusevich0%
Anas El Mahraoui0%
Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maksim Samorodov18%
Egas Cacintura15%
Mohamed Konaté10%
Lechi Sadulaev7%
Giorgi Shelia6%
Brian Mansilla4%
Manuel Keliano4%
Georgiy Melkadze4%
Rifat Zhemaletdinov0%
Darko Todorović0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Nader Ghandri0%
Daniil Khlusevich0%
Ismael Silva Lima0%
Maksim Sidorov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Galymzhan Kenzhebek0%
Abakar Gadzhiev0%
Sergey Pryakhin0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Anas El Mahraoui0%
Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov0%
Mehdi Zare0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Georgiy Melkadze22%
Lechi Sadulaev11%
Mohamed Konaté10%
Maksim Samorodov7%
Brian Mansilla4%
Ismael Silva Lima4%
Egas Cacintura4%
Rifat Zhemaletdinov0%
Darko Todorović0%
Miroslav Bogosavac0%
Klisman Cake0%
Nader Ghandri0%
Giorgi Shelia0%
Daniil Khlusevich0%
Maksim Sidorov0%
Ousmane N’Dong0%
Vadim Ulyanov0%
Galymzhan Kenzhebek0%
Abakar Gadzhiev0%
Sergey Pryakhin0%
Turpal-Ali Ibishev0%
Manuel Keliano0%
Papa Amady Gadio0%
Anas El Mahraoui0%
Dzhamalutdin Abdulkadyrov0%
Mehdi Zare0%
Zenit
Anytime goalscorer
Matches in which the player scored
Aleksandr Sobolev36%
Mateo Cassierra33%
Andrey Mostovoy27%
Maksim Glushenkov22%
Jhon Jhon22%
Luiz Henrique21%
Jhon Durán17%
Yury Gorshkov14%
Gustavo Mantuan12%
Igor Diveev8%
Gerson8%
Wendel7%
Alexander Erokhin7%
Pedro7%
Nuraly Alip6%
Douglas Santos4%
Nino4%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Denis Adamov0%
Evgeny Latyshonok0%
Vanja Drkušić0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Strahinja Eraković0%
Luciano Gondou0%
Román Vega0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Vadim Shilov0%
To be booked (yellow)
Matches in which the player was booked
Jhon Jhon33%
Evgeny Latyshonok25%
Maksim Glushenkov19%
Jhon Durán17%
Gerson17%
Pedro14%
Gustavo Mantuan12%
Wendel11%
Nino11%
Vanja Drkušić11%
Aleksandr Sobolev11%
Wílmar Barrios10%
Douglas Santos9%
Igor Diveev8%
Strahinja Eraković8%
Denis Adamov8%
Alexander Erokhin7%
Luiz Henrique7%
Luciano Gondou7%
Román Vega7%
Andrey Mostovoy5%
Mateo Cassierra0%
Yury Gorshkov0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Vadim Shilov0%
Anytime assist
Matches in which the player assisted
Maksim Glushenkov30%
Pedro14%
Jhon Jhon11%
Luiz Henrique11%
Igor Diveev8%
Mateo Cassierra8%
Wendel7%
Alexander Erokhin7%
Aleksandr Sobolev7%
Andrey Mostovoy5%
Gustavo Mantuan4%
Nino4%
Wílmar Barrios3%
Denis Adamov0%
Evgeny Latyshonok0%
Jhon Durán0%
Douglas Santos0%
Gerson0%
Vanja Drkušić0%
Yury Gorshkov0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Strahinja Eraković0%
Luciano Gondou0%
Román Vega0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Vadim Shilov0%
Over 2.5 shots
Matches with 3+ shots taken
Maksim Glushenkov26%
Aleksandr Sobolev25%
Mateo Cassierra17%
Luiz Henrique14%
Jhon Jhon11%
Igor Diveev8%
Andrey Mostovoy5%
Wendel4%
Nino4%
Wílmar Barrios0%
Alexander Erokhin0%
Denis Adamov0%
Evgeny Latyshonok0%
Jhon Durán0%
Douglas Santos0%
Gerson0%
Vanja Drkušić0%
Yury Gorshkov0%
Nuraly Alip0%
Arsen Adamov0%
Strahinja Eraković0%
Luciano Gondou0%
Gustavo Mantuan0%
Román Vega0%
Pedro0%
Daniil Kondakov0%
Vadim Shilov0%
Players with at least 3 appearances, top 10 per market – scroll each card for the rest. These are shares of matches played, which is how these markets settle, not per-90 rates.
💰 14. Squad value
💰 Total value
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (26)
€182m
SM (26)
€129m
FK (28)
€114m
CM (27)
€111m
DYN (28)
€110m
LOK (27)
€68m
RUB (27)
€45m
FR (28)
€32m
BAL (31)
€30m
AKH (25)
€30m
KS (27)
€26m
AKR (25)
€25m
DM (29)
€20m
FO (30)
€18m
NN (28)
€18m
RM (26)
€17m
FS (21)
€15m
FAK (26)
€14m
URA (21)
€11m
TM (23)
€11m
RV (25)
€9m
CHE (23)
€9m
AT (26)
€8m
SK (27)
€8m
SKA (27)
€6m
VU (24)
€6m
SY (24)
€6m
ENI (24)
€6m
FU (25)
€5m
LEN (22)
€5m
KAM (24)
€5m
VEL (23)
€5m
TEK (25)
€5m
FN (25)
€5m
Akhmat's squad is €151m less valuable than Zenit's (€30m vs €182m).
⚔️ Attack
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (9)
€100m
SM (10)
€59m
DYN (8)
€45m
CM (11)
€37m
FK (9)
€34m
LOK (8)
€21m
AKH (11)
€17m
FR (11)
€14m
AKR (9)
€11m
BAL (10)
€10m
KS (11)
€9m
DM (13)
€9m
FO (12)
€8m
RUB (5)
€8m
RM (11)
€7m
NN (11)
€6m
TM (10)
€5m
FAK (10)
€5m
FS (8)
€5m
URA (8)
€4m
CHE (9)
€4m
AT (8)
€3m
RV (7)
€3m
SK (8)
€3m
VU (9)
€2m
ENI (7)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
TEK (9)
€2m
SY (9)
€2m
KAM (9)
€2m
FN (9)
€2m
FU (7)
€2m
VEL (7)
€2m
LEN (7)
€1m
Akhmat's attack is €83m less valuable than Zenit's (€17m vs €100m).
🧠 Midfield
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
CM (5)
€48m
SM (6)
€37m
FK (7)
€35m
ZEN (5)
€31m
DYN (7)
€24m
RUB (6)
€12m
LOK (7)
€8m
BAL (6)
€6m
AKR (6)
€6m
KS (4)
€6m
FR (5)
€5m
AKH (4)
€4m
RM (4)
€3m
FO (5)
€3m
DM (5)
€3m
NN (5)
€3m
URA (4)
€2m
RV (7)
€2m
AT (8)
€2m
SKA (8)
€2m
FAK (4)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
ENI (5)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
SK (7)
€2m
SY (5)
€1m
FS (2)
€1m
LEN (6)
€1m
TM (4)
€1m
VU (5)
€1m
CHE (2)
€1m
TEK (6)
€1m
FN (5)
€1m
KAM (4)
€1m
Akhmat's midfield is €27m less valuable than Zenit's (€4m vs €31m).
🛡️ Defence
Squad value (€m) · (players with data)
ZEN (12)
€50m
FK (12)
€45m
DYN (13)
€42m
LOK (12)
€40m
SM (10)
€34m
CM (11)
€26m
RUB (16)
€25m
BAL (15)
€15m
FR (12)
€13m
KS (12)
€11m
FS (11)
€9m
AKH (10)
€9m
NN (12)
€9m
AKR (10)
€8m
DM (11)
€8m
FO (13)
€7m
FAK (12)
€7m
RM (11)
€7m
URA (9)
€4m
TM (9)
€4m
SK (12)
€4m
RV (11)
€4m
CHE (12)
€3m
AT (10)
€3m
VU (10)
€3m
SKA (11)
€3m
SY (10)
€2m
KAM (11)
€2m
LEN (9)
€2m
FN (11)
€2m
ENI (12)
€2m
TEK (10)
€2m
FU (9)
€2m
VEL (8)
€2m
Akhmat's defence is €42m less valuable than Zenit's (€9m vs €50m).
Russia: Premier League 2025/26 full table · click any column header to sort (click again to reverse). In-cell bars are scaled within each column; scroll right for props, squad value and strengths. Highlighted teams are this fixture's sides. Full Russia: Premier League stats & trends →
PythiaFootballBETA
FC Krasnodar
Lokomotiv
Spartak Moscow
CSKA Moscow
Baltika
Dynamo
Rubin
FC Rostov
Krylia Sovetov
Dinamo Makhachkala
Akron
FC Orenburg
Nizhny Novgorod
FC Sochi
Rotor Volgograd
Ural